Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[FredTMC]

Well, now we are primed fir earnings runup with a gap close. Didn't think technicals can control a fundamental event like this, but wow.

Seems like. i am always flying somewhere during tesla's ER. Give me some good news when I land in frankfurt will ya all?

i totally agree the stock will be higher. Analysts have yet to build their new models for this Energy line of business

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I am beginning to wonder if today's price action has been significantly affected by bigtime LNKD, TWTR, YELP failures. Believe it or not, we get lumped in with those idiotic "social media tech thing" stocks when the market feels like it.

Yeah mainly because they are momentum plays. I think TSLA will be getting a lot of momentum once analysts begin to build models of the Energy Storage business. Clearly tesla plans to capture huge sales. The goal is to get the world off carbon completely. That's a fairly large about of batteries to sell

 

[SteveG3]

moving up off lows. there may be some sentiment out there to pick up some shares today ahead of the weekend out of concern that a couple of days will give some opportunity to analyze/digest the presentation and lead to a higher opening on Monday. of course, there was also the tweet from Elon 45 minutes ago which FluxCap shared.

 

[FluxCap]

moving up off lows. there may be some sentiment out there to pick up some shares today ahead of the weekend out of concern that a couple of days will give some opportunity to analyze/digest the presentation and lead to a higher opening on Monday. of course, there was also the tweet from Elon 45 minutes ago which FluxCap shared.

I think Elon basically just telegraphed that he will detail the profitability and revenue guidance for the energy storage business next week, and that it will be a very good picture. Let's not forget that expectations are low for this ER as well, so any kind of beat could be an upside surprise.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Q&A: Why Tesla is plugging energy storage batteries - LA Times

Musk has hinted he might change the name of the company to Tesla Energy, noting he has secured the TeslaEnergy.com domain name. He now describes the business as an energy innovation company.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think Elon basically just telegraphed that he will detail the profitability and revenue guidance for the energy storage business next week, and that it will be a very good picture. Let's not forget that expectations are low for this ER as well, so any kind of beat could be an upside surprise.

For those in the know, $250/kWh is nothing less than earth shattering. Nobody can touch this price. Everybody will want to install grid storage at this price. A Texas utility, Oncor, planning to install 10GWh of storage in 2018, subject to the regulatory approval. Just to make sure the scale registers here, this is 2/3 of the GF yearly production, planned in 2018. As part of the regulatory approval Oncor commissioned study that supposed to justify the expense ($5.2B). The study was based on $500/GWh installed price. Tesla was the front runner as a supplier of this storage, and supplied their 400KWh battery for the currently running pilot project.

Elon's revelation on the pricing for grid storage pretty much cements this deal. We might hear about first year or two of the GF stationary storage output already reserved...

We are on the cusp of the historic squeeze...

See my previous post on this for more details/links

 

[Gtoffo]

Here is the perception problem I think.

Perception:
Tesla can produce batteries for cheap and will sell loads of them. But if they have no technological advantage (no patents), how will they make profits out of this? They will be left with a cost race to the bottom in which they won't have any way of maintaining margins. The tech will be commoditised in X months.

(Possible) Reality:
The market is huge and the achievement of those prices opens the floodgates. There will be demand for the next 20 years just to satisfy the basic demand (as Elon discussed during the event). Competition will be non existent until the market is saturated somewhat which, since capacity is so low at the moment, is a long time from now.
Tesla is the only company with a Gigafactory to profit from this opportunity. And MANY MORE factories will be needed. That's the real product for Tesla. Just like Elon said. And of course he's right.
Competition is irrelevant, margins are essentially at Tesla's discretion as long as the cost per kWh is beyond a certain value.

Elon should have probably put less emphasis on the consumer version of the battery. It has made most people miss the point of this announcement.

 

[CHGolferJim]

The media and public are much more interested in consumer stories than business efficiency stories. Very possible Tesla geared the announcement in that direction to maximize attention to the event, expecting the story will broaden and deepen over time.

 

[mdemetri]

Elon stated that it will require 2 billion 100kwh storage units to cover all the worlds energy needs. At $250/kwh that is $250x100x2,000,000,000=$50,000,000,000,000 or $50 trillion. Now that is a market!!!!!

Even if if Tesla gets 10% of this market, it is still a 5 trillion market. Over time, costs will go down, but demand will also increase; offsetting each other. So I think this is a pretty good estimate.

 

[uselesslogin]

Even if if Tesla gets 10% of this market, it is still a 5 trillion market. Over time, costs will go down, but demand will also increase; offsetting each other. So I think this is a pretty good estimate.

Plus don't forget this first generation at least only has a 10 year lifetime. Now maybe the batteries will last longer than advertised but it is a big market and one that will need to be refreshed once it matures. Although I would think it would smaller once we get there since batteries will be so much cheaper.

 

[Gerasimental]

For those in the know, $250/kWh is nothing less than earth shattering. Nobody can touch this price. Everybody will want to install grid storage at this price. A Texas utility, Oncor, planning to install 10GWh of storage in 2018, subject to the regulatory approval. Just to make sure the scale registers here, this is 2/3 of the GF yearly production, planned in 2018. As part of the regulatory approval Oncor commissioned study that supposed to justify the expense ($5.2B). The study was based on $500/GWh installed price. Tesla was the front runner as a supplier of this storage, and supplied their 400KWh battery for the currently running pilot project.

Elon's revelation on the pricing for grid storage pretty much cements this deal. We might hear about first year or two of the GF stationary storage output already reserved...

We are on the cusp of the historic squeeze...

See my previous post on this for more details/links

GF yearls production at cell level is 35GWh, no? So the Oncor deal would be more like 30% of that. Still obviously huge.

 

[GreenT]

Does anyone think that the Battery storage will be spun off as a separate company.

Surprised it isn't already.

I can see there being Tesla Industries; then Tesla Motors, Tesla Energy, Tesla HyperLoop etc. as subsidiaries.

 

[aznt1217]

Does anyone think that the Battery storage will be spun off as a separate company.

Surprised it isn't already.

I can see there being Tesla Industries; then Tesla Motors, Tesla Energy, Tesla HyperLoop etc. as subsidiaries.

Doubtful. If anything it will just be rebranded like Apple Computers did to Apple. Telsa Motors -> Tesla

 

[Johann Koeber]

If the battery takes off

we will be needing Gigafactory II and III real quick. When will these be revealed?

Anyone scouting sites? Can this be financed by Tesla?

 

[vgrinshpun]

GF yearls production at cell level is 35GWh, no? So the Oncor deal would be more like 30% of that. Still obviously huge.

The production is split between the cars (35GWh) and stationary storage (15GWh). So 10GWh is two thirds of what is slated for stationary storage output.

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Doubtful. If anything it will just be rebranded like Apple Computers did to Apple. Telsa Motors -> Tesla

The reason stationary storage is not going to be span of is that there is huge synergy in R&D and production for the both automotive sector and stationary storage sector.

 

[austinEV]

Someone help me out. I am sure Tesla is doing a great job with the software/firmware, liquid cooling/heating, modules, case, testing, marketing etc. But the competitive advantage here is the cost/kWh here which is a characteristic of Panasonics cells or maybe even Samsung or another. They are essentially taking a product from Panasonic (even the GF output is still kind of Pansonic's output) and wrapping it in a module and marking it up and selling it.

Now there is nothing wrong with that, everyone has suppliers and just about any business can be described that way. But, here is the question, why didn't panasonic do this? What keeps them from doing it even now? Particularly since Elon keeps saying he doesn't care about competition. Tesla doesn't have any cell output itself. This announcement strikes me a little bit like "look how great Panasonic's products are, we created this great application for it".

Thoughts?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Someone help me out. I am sure Tesla is doing a great job with the software/firmware, liquid cooling/heating, modules, case, testing, marketing etc. But the competitive advantage here is the cost/kWh here which is a characteristic of Panasonics cells or maybe even Samsung or another. They are essentially taking a product from Panasonic (even the GF output is still kind of Pansonic's output) and wrapping it in a module and marking it up and selling it.

Now there is nothing wrong with that, everyone has suppliers and just about any business can be described that way. But, here is the question, why didn't panasonic do this? What keeps them from doing it even now? Particularly since Elon keeps saying he doesn't care about competition. Tesla doesn't have any cell output itself. This announcement strikes me a little bit like "look how great Panasonic's products are, we created this great application for it".

Thoughts?

Two words - Elon's words : "velocity of innovation"

EDIT_____________________

Regarding the Panasonic cells, these are heavily redesigned by Tesla. Essentially Tesla wrote spec for a new cell based on the existing Pana design. Panasonic builds these cells for Tesla.

On the GF, Tesla in cooperation with Pana. designed the process and custom production machinery in order to improve efficiency. Tesla is pushing and dragging everybody else (including Pana, Material Suppliers, etc.) toward their vision. At this time Nobody can do it except Tesla. The problem for everybody else that they years behind. To start now and catch up with Tesla they need to be able to run faster, which I think is not possible: velocity of innovation.

 

[austinEV]

Two words - Elon's words : "velocity of innovation"

Panasonic can slowly, and in a very non-innovative way, make a clone in 12 months. I agree it feels like they are not inclined to do so, but are we saying that the business model is to act as the marketing front end to Panasonic?

 

[MikeC]

I saw green for a second there.

 

[Lessmog]

I saw green for a second there.

The green flash at sunset?
I believe you though. Sun will come up again next week, and the next ... etc

 

[mejojo]

The late rally saved me a ton of butthurt on my weekly play of 10 * 220....walking away losing on that only what I made on a single post-ER AMZN put I bought.

Not at all happy with today, but I will not spend the weekend regretting it.