Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[AlMc]

Also, it was done on a Saturday, which isn't really the best day to manipulate markets.

All the news outlets I have been reading reporting on this seem to give it a 'meh', indicating that this is not that unusual (at least the twitter accounts). I feel particularly bad for the people in Illinois whose phone has been ringing off the hook because their number is the one for the 'free Tesla.

If we see a major move ( > 3%) Monday I am buying more short term calls.

 

[Zzzz...]

Yes, redirecting the DNS to another location is far less worrysome than actually having hackers working their way through Tesla's website.
Techcrunch has been keeping tabs on what's going on. They do believe that Musk's twitter account was hijacked briefly:

If hackers got control of Tesla DNS, Twitter account password could also be reset using email address. By changing MX record and setting up email server on some IP.

 

[schonelucht]

This also makes it harder on dealers. If a dealer expects to get a 25% markup on taking a Tesla as a trade in, they will lose. Tesla owners will get a much better trade in value from Tesla. So this will encourage brand loyalty.

Good point. It also resonates well with Elon's earlier statement on being able to squeeze the dealers with pulling some demand levers.

On the hacking : I was sleeping so missed it, but it would indeed have been a bigger deal had this come to pass during business hours. The only thing that concerns me is that Tesla shut off remote access to cars for a short while. How long did that take for them to realise that a DNS hijack didn't put their customers in jeopardy? If that was a relative longer period it may point to some hidden links between user facing services and car facing services that they had to validate for not being compromised.

 

[Papafox]

If hackers got control of Tesla DNS, Twitter account password could also be reset using email address. By changing MX record and setting up email server on some IP.

I see what you're saying... access to Twitter accounts became possible once they gained control of Tesla's DNS and associated email addresses. One hack could lead to the other possibilities. Excellent point. Therefore, someone's personal computer need not have been hacked to get access to the twitter accounts and redirect the Tesla website.

 

[FredTMC]

I see what you're saying... access to Twitter accounts became possible once they gained control of Tesla's DNS and associated email addresses. One hack could lead to the other possibilities. Excellent point. Therefore, someone's personal computer need not have been hacked to get access to the twitter accounts and redirect the Tesla website.

This hack is completely overblown. Tesla was on it like stink on sh*t. Back to business.

 

[Twiddler]

Did anyone use remote access while the website was down? I, for one, could not get my app to work during that time, however I didn't know about the hacking then. It may have just been my car, however I suspect that remote access was indeed disabled until Tesla investigated the situation.

 

[InTheShadows]

I see what you're saying... access to Twitter accounts became possible once they gained control of Tesla's DNS and associated email addresses. One hack could lead to the other possibilities. Excellent point. Therefore, someone's personal computer need not have been hacked to get access to the twitter accounts and redirect the Tesla website.

Wow, I never thought of that. That's. Pretty scary hack. If you know where accounts are had you could just start sending password reset requests.

I guess it's time for everyone to start including security questions for email resets.

 

[wishing_for_S]

Wow, I think this is big news! Tesla has already installed storage batteries at 11 Walmarts, but more importantly they account for 70% of energy storage projects under California's Self-Generation Incentive Program. That means that they are pursuing the battery market big time, and they could get a lot in rebates. I think the stock price will be going up this week…and, I don't want to discount the Walmart news. An exclusive contract with Walmart would be a big deal. They are, after all, the largest retailer in the world.

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/04/26...lifornia-teslas-commercial-ambitions-exposed/

Here's some info on the CA tax rebate program:
http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/DistGen/sgip/

 

[mitch672]

Wow, I think this is big news! Tesla has already installed storage batteries at 11 Walmarts, but more importantly they account for 70% of energy storage projects under California's Self-Generation Incentive Program. That means that they are pursuing the battery market big time, and they could get a lot in rebates. I think the stock price will be going up this week…and, I don't want to discount the Walmart news. An exclusive contract with Walmart would be a big deal. They are, after all, the largest retailer in the world.

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/04/26...lifornia-teslas-commercial-ambitions-exposed/

Here's some info on the CA tax rebate program:
http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/DistGen/sgip/

In Walmarts case, it likely serves 2 purposes: limiting peak demand charges, and of course self generation to lower the overall electric bill. Battery storage is much easier to cost justify when you have demand charges, as commercial customers do... not so much in residential installations. of course the residential market is much more sensitive to the cost of the system as well.

 

[Krugerrand]

In Walmarts case, it likely serves 2 purposes: limiting peak demand charges, and of course self generation to lower the overall electric bill. Battery storage is much easier to cost justify when you have demand charges, as commercial customers do... not so much in residential installations. of course the residential market is much more sensitive to the cost of the system as well.

Well, and number 3: In case of zombie apocalypse, all Walmarts become very valuable for clothing, food, shelter, security... If only Rick and the gang had had a Walmart set up like this, they wouldn't have had to spend a whole season in that dark - is there a zombie around the corner - prison.

 

[32no]

The prices for the CPO program are very reasonable. In fact, the markup from the trade in price is only 6%. I don't know how I feel about that as an investor. Between the extended warranty and the costs related to the inspection and sale they are barely breaking even on the whole thing.

BTW, there are currently 180 cars listed for sale.

How did you calculate that CPO is a 6% markup on trade ins?

 

[EnergyMax]

How did you calculate that CPO is a 6% markup on trade ins?

It was reported by a forum member who found their trade in
Finding your trade in on the CPO website

 

[schonelucht]

It's even worse. There is now a second member who found his car on the CPO website and Tesla is selling that one at a loss! And that's even before taking costs for inspection, sales, warehousing and extra warranty into account. Did Tesla misjudge the value of traded-in cars or is this a deliberate strategy?

 

[bonaire]

It's even worse. There is now a second member who found his car on the CPO website and Tesla is selling that one at a loss! And that's even before taking costs for inspection, sales, warehousing and extra warranty into account. Did Tesla misjudge the value of traded-in cars or is this a deliberate strategy?

Taken on face value, it did behoove (is that a word?) Tesla to get people into the new D models and buying the sale with a quick and easy way to trade in their original car and generate a new sale for a P85D perhaps would be a good thing, short term. Driving new-car sales is critical while the company is young.

- - - Updated - - -

Wow, I think this is big news! Tesla has already installed storage batteries at 11 Walmarts, but more importantly they account for 70% of energy storage projects under California's Self-Generation Incentive Program. That means that they are pursuing the battery market big time, and they could get a lot in rebates. I think the stock price will be going up this week…and, I don't want to discount the Walmart news. An exclusive contract with Walmart would be a big deal. They are, after all, the largest retailer in the world.

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/04/26...lifornia-teslas-commercial-ambitions-exposed/

Here's some info on the CA tax rebate program:
http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/DistGen/sgip/

How large are those sitting in Walmart stores? I stumbled across a post on Yahoo that talks about the CA S.G.I.P. program and pointed to a link.
I went to that page, pulled up the spreadsheet and started filtering.
I filtered by Customer Sector - removed Residential.
Then I filtered only to those setup with an Interconnect date.

I can't really figure out if the 11 are 29.99 in capacity (kilo watt) or 100, 200 and 300KW in size. I have to guess the 100+ sizes.
The data there shows the city that the installation was done in and the dates of the interconnect.

Interesting spreadsheet, the link to it is here: Self-Generation Incentive Program

Look under the "Weekly Projects" link there.

 

[schonelucht]

Taken on face value, it did behoove (is that a word?) Tesla to get people into the new D models and buying the sale with a quick and easy way to trade in their original car and generate a new sale for a P85D perhaps would be a good thing, short term. Driving new-car sales is critical while the company is young.

Absolutely, but they also need to sell these cars with a high GM to fund their capex which is equally important for the company. Implicitly giving discounts through their CPO program is fine for a few cars but hopefully not needed as much going forward. At least this quarter they beat guidance so they can afford to be a little less generous on the trade ins! Yet one more derived metric we can obsess about as investors

 

[virtuesoft]

It's even worse. There is now a second member who found his car on the CPO website and Tesla is selling that one at a loss! And that's even before taking costs for inspection, sales, warehousing and extra warranty into account. Did Tesla misjudge the value of traded-in cars or is this a deliberate strategy?

Tesla made a 25% to 30% margin on that owners first car, and then again on their second car. I doubt they're worried about losing $1,000 on the trade in. The fact that Tesla's prices are fixed does not mean that they cannot discount the purchase in other ways, such as this. Other manufacturers do similar things with trade in values. I had a similar experience with Audi for example.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It's even worse. There is now a second member who found his car on the CPO website and Tesla is selling that one at a loss! And that's even before taking costs for inspection, sales, warehousing and extra warranty into account. Did Tesla misjudge the value of traded-in cars or is this a deliberate strategy?

I think it is premature to draw conclusions from what appears to be a sample size of two.

Regarding the owner who seem to indicate that Tesla took a loss on his trade-in, the CPO price is $76,650, while he indicated that trade-in credit was $78,000. What is not clear is whether the service agreement credit was included in the trade-in value. judging by the VIN of this particular car, it is less than 1 year old, so it was unlikely that the car had any annual inspections/service performed. So if owner bought the service plan, the full value of it would have been credited during the trade-in. So actual trade in value of the car in this case would be not $78,000 reported by the owner, but $76,100. So this alone would disprove the premise of Tesla selling CPO cars at loss. The other question is whether this owner bought extended service plan, a $4,000 value. If he did, this $4,000 need to be subtracted from the trade-in value to calculate the trade-in value of the car, less the extras.

It is not clear at this point whether there were any CPO cars that Tesla is taking loss on.

 

[JRP3]

I think it is premature to draw conclusions from what appears to be a sample size of two.

It is not clear at this point whether there were any CPO cars that Tesla is taking loss on.

Indeed, the CPO program needs to be evaluated as a whole, over time. It's likely a work in progress that will need some fine tuning.

 

[wishing_for_S]

Taken on face value, it did behoove (is that a word?) Tesla to get people into the new D models and buying the sale with a quick and easy way to trade in their original car and generate a new sale for a P85D perhaps would be a good thing, short term. Driving new-car sales is critical while the company is young.

- - - Updated - - -



How large are those sitting in Walmart stores? I stumbled across a post on Yahoo that talks about the CA S.G.I.P. program and pointed to a link.
I went to that page, pulled up the spreadsheet and started filtering.
I filtered by Customer Sector - removed Residential.
Then I filtered only to those setup with an Interconnect date.

I can't really figure out if the 11 are 29.99 in capacity (kilo watt) or 100, 200 and 300KW in size. I have to guess the 100+ sizes.
The data there shows the city that the installation was done in and the dates of the interconnect.

Interesting spreadsheet, the link to it is here: Self-Generation Incentive Program

Look under the "Weekly Projects" link there.

Thanks for the spreadsheet! I'm guessing they are the 29.99 kW capacity systems since there are 12 of these that have been paid and are not PV systems. The larger batteries have not been paid yet, and I think that's where they got the information for the subsidy amount for the article. Of course, that could be wrong. Does anyone with knowledge of appropriate sizing for battery storage want to chime in?

I just checked and there is a Walmart in 11 of the 12 towns with the 29.99 kW capacity batteries installed. There are no Walmarts in a number of the larger capacity battery towns such as Healdsburg (more of a winery town than a Walmart town).

 

[schonelucht]

I think it is premature to draw conclusions from what appears to be a sample size of two.

Sure, but at the same time, those are the only samples we have right now.

\What is not clear is whether the service agreement credit was included in the trade-in value.

Possibly. but that's been suggested to the guy as well but he didn't acknowledge such speculation so I think the fair thing to do would be take his assertion at face value for now.