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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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My take on this tenaciousness is that it is not surprising, considering high stakes. Logic and reason get clouded by the denial, facts get twisted or cherry-picked to fit the desired or hoped for scenarios. Denial is so easy as it shields from facing the pain of loss and the pain of being so wrong.

These polarized opinions on TSLA create arbitrage opportunities. Once the polarized opinions converge this stock will be traded based on its fundamentals.

TSLA could take off vertically if Quarterly and Annual Report provide some positive earnings, but I do not have very high expectations for this year. My expectations for this investment have been far exceeded already, more that is coming is just icing on a cake:smile:

I think there is certainly some of this among unknown posters, but I think a very large part of what we see is paid advertising by entrenched interests (and probably some "lone wolves" whose livelihoods are tied to the ICE/Oil/Dealership structure, but are not themselves in positions of power). This would be no different than tobacco companies investing money to advertise for years that cigarettes were not a health risk, and what we see with climate change.

The most vocal on Seeking Alpha (LT, Santos, Tales from the Future), at this point they know a fair amount about Tesla... I really doubt they believe what they are writing. Same goes for what we see from Rupert Murdoch's outlets (WSJ, Barrons, MarketWatch), and I strongly suspect Merrill Lynch/John Lovallo (how could the guy still have his job unless he were doing just what he's been told to do?).

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I'm pleased to see they mentioned Lovallo was the most bearish analyst on Wall Street re Tesla.

For anyone who has not seen this, there is a firm called Tip Ranks, that ranks Wall Street analysts based on their past performance. Lovallo is number 3,577 of 3,604 (no typo). From the graph in the link below, it's clear he was covering Tesla at least since 2/21/2013 when TSLA traded at $35.16 and he had a "sell" rating on the stock.

https://www.tipranks.com/experts/john-lovallo
 
i cant answer all of those questions, but i do feel like they will need to offer this service immediately, not 6/12 months from now.

In early February on the earnings call, Musk said there would be an announcement in the next couple of months (which is this weeks event) with a rollout expected in six months (from early February). Perhaps they will share some information Thursday on deals with businesses or even utilities that have already been signed off on.
 
What, you mean you don't want to get in on some of that sweet -46% returns action in your portfolio? Lovallo has you covered!

lovallo.png


Jokes aside, I do believe that someone who has consistently performed that badly at their chosen profession is a prime candidate for vulnerability to being manipulated or bought, out of desperation. A person like that might look at selling opinions for a very moderate sum. I would bet it wouldn't take more than $100k or so to entice him. If you are a hedge fund manager holding millions in Tesla puts, that's chump change.

If I was a BofA wealth management customer, I would certainly be angry at the quality of the advice from this portion of their analyst desk.

Anyway moving on from Lovallo -- who else is up at bat next with a report? Adam Jonas at MS? Craig at Wedbush? Goldman? Those are some of the guys that might actually move the ticker and make some people money.
 
Jokes aside, I do believe that someone who has consistently performed that badly at their chosen profession is a prime candidate for vulnerability to being manipulated or bought, out of desperation. A person like that might look at selling opinions for a very moderate sum. I would bet it wouldn't take more than $100k or so to entice him. If you are a hedge fund manager holding millions in Tesla puts, that's chump change.

that's possible, or tasked by BofA with an ICE/oil, and/or hedge fund advertising campaign from the beginning of his coverage of Tesla. Who knows... but I do agree, there are other things to focus on.
 
I think there is certainly some of this among unknown posters, but I think a very large part of what we see is paid advertising by entrenched interests (and probably some "lone wolves" whose livelihoods are tied to the ICE/Oil/Dealership structure, but are not themselves in positions of power). This would be no different than tobacco companies investing money to advertise for years that cigarettes were not a health risk, and what we see with climate change.

The most vocal on Seeking Alpha (LT, Santos, Tales from the Future), at this point they know a fair amount about Tesla... I really doubt they believe what they are writing. Same goes for what we see from Rupert Murdoch's outlets (WSJ, Barrons, MarketWatch), and I strongly suspect Merrill Lynch/John Lovallo (how could the guy still have his job unless he were doing just what he's been told to do?).

- - - Updated - - -



I'm pleased to see they mentioned Lovallo was the most bearish analyst on Wall Street re Tesla.

For anyone who has not seen this, there is a firm called Tip Ranks, that ranks Wall Street analysts based on their past performance. Lovallo is number 3,577 of 3,604 (no typo). From the graph in the link below, it's clear he was covering Tesla at least since 2/21/2013 when TSLA traded at $35.16 and he had a "sell" rating on the stock.

https://www.tipranks.com/experts/john-lovallo

According to the link you provided, all the other companies he companies he covers are either a "buy" or "hold" rating.
Whaddya know... they are all automotive parts or automotive services companies! I can't imagine... :wink:
 
What, you mean you don't want to get in on some of that sweet -46% returns action in your portfolio? Lovallo has you covered!

View attachment 79581

Jokes aside, I do believe that someone who has consistently performed that badly at their chosen profession is a prime candidate for vulnerability to being manipulated or bought, out of desperation. A person like that might look at selling opinions for a very moderate sum. I would bet it wouldn't take more than $100k or so to entice him. If you are a hedge fund manager holding millions in Tesla puts, that's chump change.

If I was a BofA wealth management customer, I would certainly be angry at the quality of the advice from this portion of their analyst desk.

Anyway moving on from Lovallo -- who else is up at bat next with a report? Adam Jonas at MS? Craig at Wedbush? Goldman? Those are some of the guys that might actually move the ticker and make some people money.

Yep. I'm surprised we haven't heard from Adam J/MS yet. I guess he's gonna wait till AFTER the actual event
 
Two interesting observations:

1)follow Dana Hull on twitter and she gives some interesting insight to how this FUD machine works with her last several tweets... Happy that she doesn't fall for it.

2)another guy I follow on twitter (Daniel Sparks) mentioned that if you type in www teslaenergy com then it redirects you to Tesla's website. Not sure if this is new or has been like that for a while
 
that's interesting v12. I'd only noticed that there are 5 other companies he covers but has only put out one note on each (at least by that's what the chart in the link seems to suggest to me) while having come out with Tesla commentary 16 times. Makes it seem like his assignment is just about entirely comprised of commenting on Tesla.
 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102628312
"It's been a long weekend," Paul Strater said. "At 3 p.m. on Wednesday, I didn't know what a Tesla was; I thought 'Elon Musk' was a men's fragrance."
He describes his 20-year-old son as a type of "white hat" hacker, one who points out cybersecurity lapses to corporations and the like. "What he does with computers is shocking, frightening and impressive at the same time," he said.
 
Two interesting observations:

1)follow Dana Hull on twitter and she gives some interesting insight to how this FUD machine works with her last several tweets... Happy that she doesn't fall for it.

2)another guy I follow on twitter (Daniel Sparks) mentioned that if you type in www teslaenergy com then it redirects you to Tesla's website. Not sure if this is new or has been like that for a while

Im pretty sure they'll launch the site after Thursday's event: TeslaEnergy.com. A New line of business.
 
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