If you can ignore the massive put flow, then this may be the OML/bounce everyone's been waiting for (NFA):
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yeap, greeks are there to assist when underlying approaches - they can't predict direction unless really tall or in large clustersGamma and Vanna for this week seems to favor upside, no? But I think events like earnings can override
You'd mentioned that in a previous post, makes sense. However, if I sell the +p i'll be left naked or uncovered -p ... I don't own the underlying. My account options trading level doesn't allow this trade. Rolling this last put spread will be the only way to minimize the loss of closing altogether. What I am scared of is that SP can move either direction quickly. Nonetheless, thanks for sharing this other "fix".another option if there is room is to just sell all the +p and be done with the stress
STO SMCI 5/3 CC 695 $7100 per contract, net $6600 if assigned
i don't care if stock drops coz of 5/24 700 gamma
That's the main thing keeping me from thinking this was the bottom this morning. Would have much preferred both a TSLA and macro dump in the morning followed by a rebound.Wow the fun started early. In for a cheapo -690P for NVDA and a -136P for TSLA.
Be very wary of the afternoon Macro dump. From the look of QQQ it aint over yet.
yeap, greeks are there to assist when underlying approaches - they can't predict direction unless really tall or in large clusters
earnings are like black swans, we slice through the greek walls like hot knife on butter
gamma says 150@Yoona What's your read on what market is expecting for ER? Seems tons of puts still flowing in BUT absGEX is leaning upside:
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But at some level, isn’t it more important what the market wants to do, based on its positioning, versus what Elon will say.. especially since his words are usually twisted or capitalized on to further the interests of the big players in the market? Of course I have no confidence that the stock can get back to 150 anytime soon, so my psychology is definitely being impacted by the negative sentiments right nowgamma says 150
chain says 150, with 1σ 128-155
but neither know EM's speech, which is subjective
so earnings is difficult to predict
What would make you say this?After a 42% sell off in TSLA in 2024, I'm thinking we are more likely to go UP after ER than down. I may close all my CCs for a nice profit later today or tomorrow.
Edit: Although when I close CCs early in the hope of selling again on a pop, I usually lose money....
there is nothing wrong with booking money profits on CC’s.. but I would b hesitant to say that we’ve seen the bottom. YMMV NFAAfter a 42% sell off in TSLA in 2024, I'm thinking we are more likely to go UP after ER than down. I may close all my CCs for a nice profit later today or tomorrow.
Edit: Although when I close CCs early in the hope of selling again on a pop, I usually lose money....
Just my personal opinion that TSLA is oversold. We know Energy is going to grow a lot this year. CT is ramping. FSD has been driving me around like a Level 5 vehicle all week. And I believe that Tesla vehicle P&D will be growing a lot in 2025 (no chance next Gen vehicle is cancelled).What would make you say this?
i suspect if market doesn't like his speech, you can throw gamma/OI/1σ out the windowBut at some level, isn’t it more important what the market wants to do, based on its positioning, versus what Elon will say.. especially since his words are usually twisted or capitalized on to further the interests of the big players in the market? Of course I have no confidence that the stock can get back to 150 anytime soon, so my psychology is definitely being impacted by the negative sentiments right now
We HOPE he (or his lieutenants) knows that and can keep things from going off the rails (though we hoped so the last few calls too).i suspect if market doesn't like his speech, you can throw gamma/OI/1σ out the window
just like smci's black swan, no-guidance meant all metrics went to hell and quick 20% afternoon drop; gamma and OI and 1σ and channels and fibs and trend lines and everything technical became useless
Normally I'd agree but this is the chart that tells me it's ready to go either way. If Elon's saying that we're still building the assembly line and we will make whatever ready for prime time first, between the model 2 or robotaxi, then we can bounce. But if he gives any indication that the model 2 is dead, that thought gives me chill.But at some level, isn’t it more important what the market wants to do, based on its positioning, versus what Elon will say.. especially since his words are usually twisted or capitalized on to further the interests of the big players in the market? Of course I have no confidence that the stock can get back to 150 anytime soon, so my psychology is definitely being impacted by the negative sentiments right now
He has to know that a dropping SP puts his compensation package at risk. A lot of people who gained from his work since 2018 have taken profits. A lot of bag holders are voting now....We HOPE he (or his lieutenants) knows that and can keep things from going off the rails (though we hoped so the last few calls too).