Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[ReddyLeaf]

Oof, some bagholders on Rivian after today's action / AH $1.5B capital raise announcement.

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Amazing. I was watching the run up much of the day, and put in, then pulled orders multiple times to sell BCS spreads. In the end I decided it was too much risk. These are the things that us little investors will never know until after the fact. Yes, I wish those orders went through, but in reality it was only a few thousand dollars, so not enough to fret over.

Instead, I sold more $TSLA than I have ever done before and bought puts. I’m really out on a limb here, hoping for a pullback. Crazy, I haven’t made this much of a directional bet before, so I’ll probably be completely wrong and, if the SP doesn’t retrace soon, I’ll lose a bunch. Oh well, that’s the beast. I should probably just stick to my put-call straddles and iron condors. As always, GLTA.

 

[Surfer of Life]

FWIW

…61% chance of reverse…

This sounds sort of like just statistical probabilities; aren’t all extraordinary events in a series more likely to be followed by closer-to-average events than by more extreme events?

Or something kind like that. 61% isn’t saying much. Otherwise we’d live in a world of ever- widening extremes. Note I did not say randomness, as we’re not quite talking disconnected coin flips here.

 

[intelligator]

Wow, crazy run-up yesterday. Looks like most all action is at 260 and below. Put call ratio confirms, now @ 1.14, M-P increased to 252.5. Tallest walls at p250 and c265, although c260 may be next. Greatest difference is p250 followed by p240.

I sold 200 shares yesterday early at 252.5, yeah, silly ... mostly to capture capital gains to write against losses earlier this year, net zero is the goal. Other and more timely is to clear margin. I have 2x -c252.5 and 4x -c260 to watch today, roll to next week if pressure doesn't let up. The development on the put side may drive a flat or reverse, let's see what other data points show up this am.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I am expecting the SP to go down, WS estimates were lowered and stock went from $278 to testing $238/240 daily. We are all buying puts.

So we should all guess what the stock price is going to do so market makers inflict max pain to what would be the obvious trend of the stock

And it went up

 

[Max Plaid]

Today's trade and jobless numbers came in almost bang-on forecasts, equities were probably hoping more people lost their livelihoods, but no...

Note tha FEDiot Mester is "speaking" at 15:00EST, he's on the hawkish end of the scale and has probably been promoted by JHole to ramp up the rhetoric

 

[Jim Holder]

Morning!

Is it normal for +C150 12/2025 and +C150 1/2026 to be priced so similarly (both $144-$149)?
And if they are that close in price, is it better to go with the further out in time vs earlier?
Not looking to buy today exactly unless we maintain strength and break 263, just keeping an eye on them since I sold my +C150 12/2025's at SP $257-258 yesterday during the hype to capture some gains before any rejection.

 

[UncaNed]

Morning!

Is it normal for +C150 12/2025 and +C150 1/2026 to be priced so similarly (both $144-$149)?
And if they are that close in price, is it better to go with the further out in time vs earlier?
Not looking to buy today exactly unless we maintain strength and break 263, just keeping an eye on them since I sold my +C150 12/2025's at SP $257-258 yesterday during the hype to capture some gains before any rejection.

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Isn't further out in time always better?

 

[JusRelax]

Is this for real? Jan 2026 expiration 390 strikes are cheaper than Dec 2025 390 strikes... looks backwards:
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You're comparing Dec 2025 to Sep 2025, guessing you got confused by the fact that they are both on the 19th of the month, so it looks like 1/9 maybe?

 

[transpondster]

Morning!

Is it normal for +C150 12/2025 and +C150 1/2026 to be priced so similarly (both $144-$149)?
And if they are that close in price, is it better to go with the further out in time vs earlier?
Not looking to buy today exactly unless we maintain strength and break 263, just keeping an eye on them since I sold my +C150 12/2025's at SP $257-258 yesterday during the hype to capture some gains before any rejection.

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well there is delivery and most likely Q results difference

 

[UncaNed]

well there is delivery and most likely Q results difference

???????????? (There needs to be a "?" emoji.)

 

[tivoboy]

Morning!

Is it normal for +C150 12/2025 and +C150 1/2026 to be priced so similarly (both $144-$149)?
And if they are that close in price, is it better to go with the further out in time vs earlier?
Not looking to buy today exactly unless we maintain strength and break 263, just keeping an eye on them since I sold my +C150 12/2025's at SP $257-258 yesterday during the hype to capture some gains before any rejection.

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That’s a lot of $$ to lay out for DITM options, i can imagine the demand or risk premium isn’t enough to build contango.

I misread the post, I thought it’s was 12/25 vs. 12/26

 

[Max Plaid]

That graphic is showing Dec 2025 versus Sep 2025, not Jan 2026...

Dec 2025 c390 look slightly cheaper Jan 2026, like 40c, but when you look closer the BId/Ask on the 2026 is much wider, and very low liquid by comparison, so you'd struggle to get them for a good price IMO, the 2025's would trade quickly on the mid-price

 

[UncaNed]

Where's our discussion about being played by influencers?

Edit- or perhaps not?

 

[UncaNed]

What are all my fellow put owers thinking?

FYI my PUTS expire 15 dec 2023. (I'm the guy who likes late expirations.)

Also, I don't really know what to think, but I think I'm learning a little, and mostly I wish I knew what questions to ask.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

What are all my fellow put owers thinking?

HODL till 10/20 or sell on any profit

 

[SpeedyEddy]

???????????? (There needs to be a "?" emoji.)

why

 

[Nocturnal]

What are all my fellow put owers thinking?

I grabbed some 10/13 $280s yesterday before it went totally crazy. For now those have been going up more than my 10/27 and 11/27 puts have been going down. I'm hoping to thread the needle here. I just can't see earnings being positive. Best case is that they are meh and WS gives a pass I think. Getting into Q4 it may be the battle of a great quarter vs deteriorating macro.

(I don't know anything though so don't listen to me)

 

[UncaNed]

why

So we wouldn't thave to create bandwidth-consuming posts like these just to say "?" about a post we don't understand or want to question.

 

[tivoboy]

Where's our discussion about being played by influencers?

Edit- or perhaps not?

One has to wonder when they put earnings day two days (really just two trading days) before monthly OPEX if they don’t know how manipulated the equity is through options.

But then again, I’m pretty sure the manipulator in chief has been doing this for over five years.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Hold till the fat lady sing…macro aint hot. Holding 14 x 200p exp 10-27 till then