From my look at the maximum pain information, I would say our most likely close is going to be around 705.I’m gritting my teeth and holding out hope for my 700 covered call.
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From my look at the maximum pain information, I would say our most likely close is going to be around 705.I’m gritting my teeth and holding out hope for my 700 covered call.
Looks about right to me, trying to hold my $710s to expiry……From my look at the maximum pain information, I would say our most likely close is going to be around 705.
Welp, bought back my call for $0.66 this morning, then sold a 710c for next week for $10. I expect it'll be in the red at least once between now and close next week, but I don't know by how much or if I could time it better next week as I'm asleep during a good portion of market open.
I'm going to start doing more and more aggressive calls until they get called away. Need the cash by October, and earlier wouldn't be bad either.
Welp, bought back my call for $0.66 this morning, then sold a 710c for next week for $10. I expect it'll be in the red at least once between now and close next week, but I don't know by how much or if I could time it better next week as I'm asleep during a good portion of market open.
I'm going to start doing more and more aggressive calls until they get called away. Need the cash by October, and earlier wouldn't be bad either.
I sold some BPS at 670-660 when we hit 705. I'll sell more 650-640 now and wait to sell any calls until Monday. Maybe no spike up next week, but I think the market should be picking up on the crazy production and delivery numbers and the impact a 10% increase in deliveries will have on profits. Margins for that last 10% will likely be ~30%, adding 300 million to Q3 over Q2. No big FSD release this week or next, but don't be caught off guard if some sample production in Texas is revealed.
FTFYWhy does it feel like the MMs will pull the rug under usthis FridayTODAYafterbefore Powell speaks? I have that sick feeling share price will be drop under 700 BEFORE this Friday.
Just closed those CCs for next week at about 50% profit. Will reopen similar on Monday. Also, picked up a two shares on the drop to $700 (that was my text alert to look at the SP, otherwise I would have missed this drop). More GTC orders still open at $5 successively lower prices.Agreed, me too, but I decided to roll my -c715s, -c720s, -c725s to next week -c725s for about $6.50 credit. Also rolled to -p700s for $9 credit. I still think everything would have expired worthless, but just decided to stop watching the SP this week. My cash buffer is much better now, so will put in a few GTC share purchases around and below MaxPain.
One thought to consider - roll or close now depending on what you think will happen next week to avoid a day or 2 of teeth gritting. I know it can feel like a loss but if you're reasonably confident that this is as good as its going to get so you're hoping real hard (HRH) to be wrong, then I suggest that is a good reason to be out.
A related thought - gritting teeth, holding out hope, feel - these are phrases I would associate with emotion being in charge, rather than the brain being in charge.
NOT-ADVICE of course . We all make our own decisions and experience our own consequences.
Can you elaborate on your game plan / thinking on these?I just bought 5 1450 calls for next week. I'm curious if OTM calls can have any impact on moving the max pain to the right. They're a penny, so it cost me $5.00. I also sold BPS 650/640 for next week. Now 10 and 10 and 670-660 and 650-640.
My last noticeable mistake (just a few weeks ago) was the big move down that left me with a stack of BPS that were ITM. The mistake was that on the Friday before they were roughly 30% ahead, I thought about taking the early close, so I could wait and see what Monday brought me.Well… my safety buy to close went off while I was working on other things. So, bummed that I wasn’t paying attention at the right time, but it closed for an agreeable profit given that it’s been way underwater for the majority of the week and I won’t stress about it any more.
I could have rolled out a week to 720 for a buck or two earlier… but I didn’t want to roll because that’s how I got into this situation… selling calls late in the week and then Monday brings a big rise and everything changes. Probably means next Monday will be a big dip and I’ll be grinding my teeth for a different reason.
Yea I rolled my 650/700 puts for tomorrow to next week for a really nice premium. More than I got when I sold the original set. I would have liked to see that profit added to this weeks bar chart but it’ll look good on next weeks too.Seems like MMs have squashed and pushed it down to near max pain. STO more puts at $700 9/3 exp for me
Can you elaborate on your game plan / thinking on these?
What are you thinking will happen with those purchased calls - what sort of payoff are you looking for? I realize it's $1/contract so we're talking small $. But the thesis can be scaled up if and when it seems like a good idea. It might be hard to buy 100k of those contracts at 1 penny each, but it's the idea that matters anyway
Were there other BPS considered? Any particular insight into the strikes chosen (I see 650 and 670 for the short side)? Any other strikes or expirations considered?
Why the $10 spread size, as opposed to something else?
(Of course - feel free to ignore any and all of my questions . The answers to these sorts of questions are what I'm looking for in posts, as these answers end up informing my own trades)
Just be careful choosing the strike date and price. I bought 090321C800 on 8/17 when SP closed at $666 for $1.24 looking for a AI Day-related bump. Well, a small bump came with the SP closing today at $701 (yesterday $711), but the call has collapsed 80% to $0.19. Need to analyze further, but I do see 0903C670 up >20%. Seems you must pick a price certain to be ITM, and probably the shorter the better. I saw someone post that they buy 1-week calls on Friday and sell at open (presumably limit order GTC) on Monday. That would seem to be workable during these days of concerted price capping on Fridays and unfolding early Mondays. Live and learn.wow IV is really low I feel like buying some short term calls. Someone on twitter posted that Robinhood is lowering the margin maintenance requirement for Tesla to 25% I assume other brokerages will do the same.
Regarding the 1450 call, I'm just seeing if small very high calls can have an impact on max pain.
There is a theoretical impact and it can be calculated. The amount is miniscule though.I don't know how max pain is formally calculated, but it doesn't make sense to me that a 1450 would have any effect. We can assume the price will end up in the middle somewhere, so all the outliers (low puts/high calls) shouldn't have any effect and I would think they'd be ignored. The question is more where in the middle it should settle; whether it's slightly more profitable to pay out the $695 puts or $685 calls or whatever. I bet if you bought a bunch of $700+ puts it would have a much greater effect in terms of moving max pain from $690->$700 versus anything you do way OTM.
In other words, if you look at the giant bowl shape diagram on the max pain page, making the far edges of the bowl steeper doesn't seem like it should have any effect on where the lowest point falls.
Just be careful choosing the strike date and price. I bought 090321C800 on 8/17 when SP closed at $666 for $1.24 looking for a AI Day-related bump. Well, a small bump came with the SP closing today at $701 (yesterday $711), but the call has collapsed 80% to $0.19. Need to analyze further, but I do see 0903C670 up >20%. Seems you must pick a price certain to be ITM, and probably the shorter the better. I saw someone post that they buy 1-week calls on Friday and sell at open (presumably limit order GTC) on Monday. That would seem to be workable during these days of concerted price capping on Fridays and unfolding early Mondays. Live and learn.
wow IV is really low I feel like buying some short term calls. Someone on twitter posted that Robinhood is lowering the margin maintenance requirement for Tesla to 25% I assume other brokerages will do the same.
Agree with the higher probability of a breakout soon. This seems to happen every time the difference between the upper and lower 20-day Bollinger bands is less than 10% SP. Today it closed at (731.59-670.81)/701.16 = 8.67%. I don’t have IV readily accessible, but this has been a good leading indicator for me (not that I have been able to properly trade it).Of note, tomorrow the golden cross and the max pain is below James Stephenson's bullish trend line. If we maintain both, we should have a breakout next week.
Now you share this after market close. I was having those exact same thoughts on some put spreads expiring tomorrow with the short leg at 690. Wouldn’t have made a difference. Market was closed by time I visited this thread. I am planning on closing them at market open tomorrow. Hoping we get that little opening boost tsla seems to get quite a bit.The mistake was that on the Friday before they were roughly 30% ahead, I thought about taking the early close, so I could wait and see what Monday brought me.