(…) How do you see the war ending?
MM: This is the biggest question of them all. There are three endings that I can see. One is a total Russian victory. Russian President Vladimir Putin gets what he wants. That now seems a remote probability. Even if Russian troops took Kyiv and
Kharkiv, it’s clear the resistance would continue. Two is Ukraine driving all Russian troops out of the country. A year ago, this suddenly seemed possible. I have a colleague who strongly believed the war would be over by (last) Christmas, with Russia in full retreat. After the failed counteroffensive of 2023, this also seems unlikely now.
That leaves us with something neither side seems genuinely interested in: some kind of negotiated solution. I won’t speculate what that might look like, but it won’t be the complete liberation of Ukrainian territory. And how long would such a peace last?
So that leaves me fearing that we’re nowhere near the end of this, meaning at least several more years of war – unless something truly dramatic happens (like a sudden death in Moscow).