Russia/Ukraine conflict

[unk45]

…

Lastly, it is amazing to me that the US has turned into a bunch of adults that derive entertainment from attacking this or that person in government. There is no constructive criticism or even critical thinking applied to the basis for the attacks. It just feels good so they do it. The death of competence will follow.

Over at least the last five decades US foreign policy competence has rarely been in evidence, and has steadily diminished. The exceptions have been unusual situations that deferred to national/regional experts. Nearly always there have been a handful of knowledgeable people in diplomatic and/or military posts. Most major decisions end out being political; those rarely have been well-informed.

There is no question that almost global drift towards populist drift towards autocracy dramatically reduces the odds of successful conflict resolution.

Just think: Russia, China, Hungary, Turkey, the entire Middle East all with autocratic rule.
Then: UK, Italy, US, Brazil, and many more are drifting towards more flawed, extreme and unstable givernments.

In that context Ukraine, flawed though it is, must prevail soon. Without that the world will descend into more chaos. The Baltics have been warning the world for years. So have others.
…and so it goes

 

[wdolson]

Over at least the last five decades US foreign policy competence has rarely been in evidence, and has steadily diminished. The exceptions have been unusual situations that deferred to national/regional experts. Nearly always there have been a handful of knowledgeable people in diplomatic and/or military posts. Most major decisions end out being political; those rarely have been well-informed.

There is no question that almost global drift towards populist drift towards autocracy dramatically reduces the odds of successful conflict resolution.

Just think: Russia, China, Hungary, Turkey, the entire Middle East all with autocratic rule.
Then: UK, Italy, US, Brazil, and many more are drifting towards more flawed, extreme and unstable givernments.

In that context Ukraine, flawed though it is, must prevail soon. Without that the world will descend into more chaos. The Baltics have been warning the world for years. So have others.
…and so it goes

The degradation of leadership in the west was happening from within, but Russia did everything they could to encourage it.

 

[wdolson]

Thread about what Russia faces this winter supplying Crimea
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

I didn't know this but the Azoz sea often freezes over in the winter.

 

[EVCollies]

Thread about what Russia faces this winter supplying Crimea
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

I didn't know this but the Azoz sea often freezes over in the winter.

Spacing private vehicles 10 lengths apart single file does not indicate any confidence. Possibly this is the only traffic into Crimea?

Is the circular structure at the bow lifting the damaged road section for reattachment? Seems like a desperate repair given lack of new material.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Time has never worked to quell Russian ambitions. I'd suggest reading the article posted up thread if you haven't yet.

Times have changed. We're over the hump, these oil and gas states will be penny stocks in short order just like Peabody Coal.

Plenty of ways to skin a cat.

 

[traxila]

We didn't need war if the only cost was Hitler being allowed to have troops in the Rhineland. Oh wait, Hitler just wanted to occupy the Sudetenland too; he said that was his last territorial demand. Oh wait, he wants all of Czeckoslovakia, then there won't be war. Nope, wait a minute, now he wants part of Lithuania. Oh, and Poland too.

We've literally seen this story play out before. Except apparently some people didn't study history and that includes Elon.

Contrary to what many people may believe nowadays, Hitler did not have access to a nuclear arsenal.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Russia is done. Not on their campaign in Ukraine, but altogether. The isolation and sanctions plus the peak/end of fossil fuels means Russia is done. Why not just let time do the work?

Unfortunately (for the rest of the world), Russia grows more than enough food for its population, and has more than enough energy for its population. And it has a huge amount of other natural resources. Russia will never be "done". Oh, it can't match the US in a shooting war, of course, but Russia can be very, very patient.

 

[STS-134]

Contrary to what many people may believe nowadays, Hitler did not have access to a nuclear arsenal.

Putin's got nukes. NATO's got nukes. If Putin uses a nuke, it's MAD. And it triggers Article 5 because the fallout affects NATO countries. But if NATO gives in to Putin's demands because Putin has nukes, then Putin tries to see what he can get away with next. I'd say Georgia is the next to fall. If NATO allows that, then Putin rolls into the Baltics next. And then Poland. Until the rest of the world decides to stop him.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It seems like it is playing out all be it at the cost of Ukrainian lives.

Absolutely. On day three of the war, when NATO realized they could degrade the Russian military to a fraction of its current size, the war strategy was set.

And the strategy is to fight a proxy war, supplying Ukraine with anything and everything they can get away with without provoking too strong a response from Russia. Russian military gets significantly weakened, NATO military contractors get fat juicy contracts, NATO gets to see what works in a unique battle scenario ... everyone wins. Well, except for Russia and Ukraine.

This playbook has occurred time and time again since the dawn of nuclear weapons. Just ask the Koreans and Vietnamese how fun it is to host a proxy war.

By the way, in case you were wondering why the heck Russia still hasn't claimed air superiority, this video does a good job in answering that question. It isn't just that the Russian air force isn't great, it is mostly that Ukraine is huge.

[Edit, and the word you are looking for is albeit (not "all be it").]

 

[traxila]

Putin's got nukes. NATO's got nukes. If Putin uses a nuke, it's MAD. And it triggers Article 5 because the fallout affects NATO countries. But if NATO gives in to Putin's demands because Putin has nukes, then Putin tries to see what he can get away with next. I'd say Georgia is the next to fall. If NATO allows that, then Putin rolls into the Baltics next. And then Poland. Until the rest of the world decides to stop him.

The Russian army is currently a shambles and will be lucky to hold the Ukraine territory it has. The idea that they are going to roll Soviet style into country after country, some of which you named officially in NATO, is laughable at this point, something which I certainly did not expect to believe six months ago. I don’t know how many people really did understand prior to this war how disorganised and dependent on western sources for rearming the Russian army has become.

Why are you writing about the Russians rolling across Europe in blitzkrieg like fashion through the vastly superior NATO army when they cannot even supply the troops they have right on their own borders in the Ukraine?

 

[STS-134]

The Russian army is currently a shambles and will be lucky to hold the Ukraine territory it has. The idea that they are going to roll Soviet style into country after country, some of which you named officially in NATO, is laughable at this point, something which I certainly did not expect to believe six months ago. I don’t know how many people really did understand prior to this war how disorganised and dependent on western sources for rearming the Russian army has become.

Why are you writing about the Russians rolling across Europe in blitzkrieg like fashion through the vastly superior NATO army when they cannot even supply the troops they have right on their own borders in the Ukraine?

Because if they're given Ukraine (through the ceasing of aid to Ukraine), they'll just rebuild their armed forces and then invade the next country. If it takes 5 more years to rebuild their armed forces, then they'll invade in 6-7 years. And on and on it will go until someone decides to stop them.

 

[Surfer of Life]

Good article about the fake information that Russian diplomats have been giving to Putin:

The Sources of Russian Misconduct

A diplomat defects from the Kremlin.

www.foreignaffairs.com

a great read, explaining a lot. Thank you.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Putin's got nukes. NATO's got nukes. If Putin uses a nuke, it's MAD. And it triggers Article 5 because the fallout affects NATO countries. But if NATO gives in to Putin's demands because Putin has nukes, then Putin tries to see what he can get away with next. I'd say Georgia is the next to fall. If NATO allows that, then Putin rolls into the Baltics next. And then Poland. Until the rest of the world decides to stop him.

It's not a certainty that NATO would respond in kind, depending of course on what type of Russian move occurred. If it's a battlefield weapon, used in Eastern Ukraine's disputed regions, then I think NATO does a strong conventional response: sinks the Black Sea fleet, destroys all land units in the disputed region, severely degrades Russian assets and facilities in Crimea (leaving enough infrastructure for a withdrawal).

If the target is a city and a large civilian population, then I won't predict any possible NATO response. There's also the solid chance of unilateral action by other large powers. Hopefully, the UN Security Coucil's remaining 4 members agree (or at very least are notified) in advance of any action. This may be problematic however, due to operational security.

Lastly, I understand Elon's concerns, but he's taking counsel of his fears right now. And that's the ONLY card Putie has left to play: FEAR. F**k Putin, and the horse he rode in on. Those little iodine pills taste okay with a little bottled water... certainly not as bitter as some reconstituted Soviet future, bereft of the light of Freedom.

Ukrainians are willing to die for their freedom. Are we willing to just watch, until Putie comes for his next conquest?

Budmo!

 

[ElectricIAC]

Those little iodine pills taste okay with a little bottled water... certainly not as bitter as some reconstituted Soviet future, bereft of the light of Freedom.

Being irradiated (The lucky ones vaporized in blast) > Peace agreement.

We have a word for this: Meshuggena..

 

[Surfer of Life]

Reading thru some of Elon's tweets.....he ain't entirely wrong.

I know the tough guy act and punch-a-bully-in-the-face crowd runs deep here, but that puts end of days on the table. We don't need that if the only cost is Russia holding on to Crimea (a dbag peninsula almost entirely full of Russians).

Russia is done. Not on their campaign in Ukraine, but altogether. The isolation and sanctions plus the peak/end of fossil fuels means Russia is done. Why not just let time do the work?

While they keep attacking Ukraine with drones and missiles?

 

[traxila]

Because if they're given Ukraine (through the ceasing of aid to Ukraine), they'll just rebuild their armed forces and then invade the next country. If it takes 5 more years to rebuild their armed forces, then they'll invade in 6-7 years. And on and on it will go until someone decides to stop them.

Who is giving them Ukraine? Russia is currently bogged down by a Ukrainian counteroffensive that is using weapons, intelligence and tactics supplied by NATO.

Russia has been bragging about the buildup and might of their armed forces for a couple of decades now, and in the end they are a paper tiger. Their demographics suck and they are in population decline that appears irreversible. And as I already mentioned, their weapons require western supplies that they have no access to right now. They are more likely to go bankrupt building old age retirement communities than rearming in five years.

Russia’s ability to conquer and hold territory has been exposed. They will probably lose this war in the Ukraine without NATO armies getting directly involved. The only card Putin will have to play at some point is his nuclear option. To cavalierly dismiss this as a bully buffing is not a good idea. Maybe this is the case, but even a one percent chance of nuclear exchanges is unacceptable. NATO needs to figure out what the endgame is here and how to give Putin an out where he doesn’t decide that he prefers mushroom clouds as testimony to his psychotic greatness.

 

[stopcrazypp]

The Russian army is currently a shambles and will be lucky to hold the Ukraine territory it has. The idea that they are going to roll Soviet style into country after country, some of which you named officially in NATO, is laughable at this point, something which I certainly did not expect to believe six months ago. I don’t know how many people really did understand prior to this war how disorganised and dependent on western sources for rearming the Russian army has become.

Why are you writing about the Russians rolling across Europe in blitzkrieg like fashion through the vastly superior NATO army when they cannot even supply the troops they have right on their own borders in the Ukraine?

They don't have to roll through other countries in the short term. They'll just rebuild their military strength and take more territory from Ukraine (just like they have done in the past, they already held Crimea and obviously they were not content with that).

In the long run, there are plenty of neighboring countries that are not part of NATO they can roll through (as they have done in the past), and NATO has made it clear they will not fight directly with Russia to defend them.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Unfortunately (for the rest of the world), Russia grows more than enough food for its population, and has more than enough energy for its population. And it has a huge amount of other natural resources. Russia will never be "done". Oh, it can't match the US in a shooting war, of course, but Russia can be very, very patient.

They may have the resources to drown themselves in Vodka for the next 50 years, but the brain drain from Russia will be just as crippling to their economy as the sanctions.

 

[BitJam]

Reading thru some of Elon's tweets.....he ain't entirely wrong.

I know the tough guy act and punch-a-bully-in-the-face crowd runs deep here, but that puts end of days on the table. We don't need that if the only cost is Russia holding on to Crimea (a dbag peninsula almost entirely full of Russians).

We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

The "appease Russia because they have nukes" mindset is what got us into this mess: Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, Donbas, Syria. Putin had every reason to believe the West would let him take the rest of Ukraine as well. In fact, right after the invasion, the West was ready to let him get away with it. On Friday Feb. 25, Biden said/complained that the EU was not willing to impose significant economic sanction (banning Russia from SWIFT). Then there was a sea change that weekend. Perhaps due to Zylenskyy's I need ammunition not a ride, strong arming from the US, a change of heart, or some combination. The EU got onboard with finally resisting Putin's aggression. The resistance started with freezing Russia's central bank assets which was much harsher than just banning them from SWIFT.

IMO it is appeasement comments like these from Elon that make the first use of nukes more likely. When you reward/ignore bad behavior then you get more bad behavior. In addition, our constant capitulation to Putin gave him an overblown sense of Russia's conventional military might. Most wars (like most bets) arise from conflicting views of reality. The reality conflict here is over Russia's economic and conventional military power. The military conflict will end when Russia re-aligns its reality and not before. It has been clearly demonstrated that promises of non-aggression from Putin are worthless.

One of Russia's motives for the current war was to establish a land bridge/route to Crimea. Unless Ukraine provides Russia with water and free access to Crimea, ceding Crimea to Russia is politically unstable. I grant you this would be a huge plum for Putin and would appease him -- temporarily. But by giving him such a juicy reward for behaving badly we are encouraging him to continue to threaten to use nukes in order to expand his Russian Empire. In addition, Ukraine would never go for this unless they were soundly defeated on the battlefield.

 

[traxila]

They don't have to roll through other countries in the short term. They'll just rebuild their military strength and take more territory from Ukraine. In the long run, there are plenty of neighboring countries that are not part of NATO they can roll through (as they have done in the past), and NATO has made it clear they will not fight directly with Russia.

IMO, we have more to fear from a collapsing Russian state and the subsequent power vacuum that would possibly result in multiple wars across the region, both between countries and civil, not to mention rogue actors in possession of nukes.

And NATO is directly engaged in a proxy war with Russia as we speak.