Prediction: Model 3 Orders to reach 100k in 24 hours

[Clprenz]

Hey everyone,
Based on a few factors (Owner and employee demand, along with Tesla fans), I am predicting that Model 3 demand will reach 100,000 orders within 24 hours of the portal being online.

I outlined my theory using early results from my survey. You can read more in my blog post.

Blog Post

Any thoughts? Too optimistic? Bets?

 

[Cattledog]

Agree. And think about that. It took Model X 3 years to hit 30,000!

 

[Big Dog]

setup a poll?

But no, I don't agree. I know of three current owners, and none of them will be putting down a deposit. Anecdotes, sure, but why would someone who can readily afford a $100k car be interested in a ride for $35k. I don't see it, unless they are buying presents for their grandkids.

 

[ELRev]

setup a poll?

I set one up in this forum. Got about 30-40 contributors. About half said yes, half said maybe depending on what the Model 3 offers, and like 3-4 said no.

I realized shortly after posting that a Model 3 sub-forum is probably the worst place to get an unbiased sense of which current Tesla owners will or won't order a Model 3. I'd be interested to see results from another sub-forum. Maybe I'll post one myself.

EDIT: Just posted a poll in the Model S sub-forum. Hopefully we get some good participation. I'll share results if/when they become worth sharing.

 

[Zaxxon]

I don't know about 24 hours, but it's clear to me that the total will far, far surpass that number. Take the X as a base: it took roughly 3 years to hit 30k reservations.

• Reservations were 5x as expensive.
• They represented intent to buy a car that was going to cost in excess of $70k. (about 2x the Model 3)
• Tesla was less well-known for most of that period. (Say an average of 1/2 as well-known as a from-my-rear-end estimate)

Using pseudo-math, that represents a 20x expected increase in M3 rate vs X rate (5*2*2). We have about 4/7 as long to accrue reservations (deliveries in about 2 years from first reservations vs 3.5 for the X). So again with pseudo-math:

30,000 * 20 * 4/7 = 342k+ expected reservations.

Who knows how accurate those guesstimates will prove to be, but my gut tells me they're conservative: the addressable market for vehicles doesn't increase linearly as price drops; the rate of increase is generally far in excess of linear.

 

[boiler81]

I believe the M3 will be tremendously successful, and will be the "killer app" of cars. That being said, I believe relatively few really know about its reveal, and add that to the fact that its not advertised, and won't be available for 20+ months, I believe only the enthusiast will be putting their money down in the first 24 hours. I don't live under a rock, yet I don't know anyone personally know who knows of the reveal, let alone will be putting money down the first day. I predict first 24 hour orders at 50K-60K world wide.

P.S. I assume all have seen TMC's blog, describing M3 delivery order. If your not on the west coast, why worry about ordering day one?

 

[ELRev]

I believe the M3 will be tremendously successful, and will be the "killer app" of cars. That being said, I believe relatively few really know about its reveal, and add that to the fact that its not advertised, and won't be available for 20+ months, I believe only the enthusiast will be putting their money down in the first 24 hours. I don't live under a rock, yet I don't know anyone personally know who knows of the reveal, let alone will be putting money down the first day. I predict first 24 hour orders at 50K-60K world wide.

P.S. I assume all have seen TMC's blog, describing M3 delivery order. If your not on the west coast, why worry about ordering day one?

I don't know anyone I haven't told that knows about the Model 3 reveal either, let alone anyone who would consider putting $1000 down next Thursday. I don't own a Tesla, so this isn't a conversation I'd necessarily be likely to have, but I don't think there's enough buzz to garner 100,000 reservations in 24 hours. We have a very skewed perception in this forum.

As for why east coasters would order day 1, you're still jockeying for position among other prospective Model 3 owners on the east coast. If you don't order day one, you'll be behind not only everyone west of you but also everyone else on the east coast who does order day one. Could be thousands of people. Might push you several months further back. If you can afford the deposit, why not get it out of the way?

 

[butchmank9]

setup a poll?

But no, I don't agree. I know of three current owners, and none of them will be putting down a deposit. Anecdotes, sure, but why would someone who can readily afford a $100k car be interested in a ride for $35k. I don't see it, unless they are buying presents for their grandkids.

After they see what the Model 3 looks like and what it can do I am sure they will all changed there minds.

 

[boiler81]

As for why east coasters would order day 1, you're still jockeying for position among other prospective Model 3 owners on the east coast. If you don't order day one, you'll be behind not only everyone west of you but also everyone else on the east coast who does order day one. Could be thousands of people. Might push you several months further back. If you can afford the deposit, why not get it out of the way?

Your only in the hunt, if you check enough option boxes, otherwise I doubt your day 1 deposit will count for much.

 

[ThortsMD]

I've had a sign on my office window for 6 weeks now to inquire if you have questions about the M3. My company's day shift is about 80. Including non-coworkers, I have 14 people interested and 3 who will be hitting the refresh button on their computers to get in the line early on 4/1.

 

[boiler81]

I have 14 people interested and 3 who will be hitting the refresh button on their computers to get in the line early on 4/1.

Sounds like you have an office of informed folks. However better tell'em to get on-line 3/31 since per the TMC blog:
"The first, which will allow you to get a better spot in the queue, is to visit your local Tesla store when it opens on March 31st. Find your closest Tesla store here. The second is to make a reservation online at Tesla.com when the live unveil starts at 8:30pm PT."

 

[ucmndd]

I love the unbounded optimism and reality distortion of automotive forums. I truly do.

 

[Grendal]

I don't know about 24 hours, but it's clear to me that the total will far, far surpass that number. Take the X as a base: it took roughly 3 years to hit 30k reservations.

• Reservations were 5x as expensive.
• They represented intent to buy a car that was going to cost in excess of $70k. (about 2x the Model 3)
• Tesla was less well-known for most of that period. (Say an average of 1/2 as well-known as a from-my-rear-end estimate)

Using pseudo-math, that represents a 20x expected increase in M3 rate vs X rate (5*2*2). We have about 4/7 as long to accrue reservations (deliveries in about 2 years from first reservations vs 3.5 for the X). So again with pseudo-math:

30,000 * 20 * 4/7 = 342k+ expected reservations.

Who knows how accurate those guesstimates will prove to be, but my gut tells me they're conservative: the addressable market for vehicles doesn't increase linearly as price drops; the rate of increase is generally far in excess of linear.

Nice math. Another simple method that I realized is that in Tesla's history they always seem to be at one years worth of sales for the vehicle at the time the first production car is delivered to a customer.

So my WAG for day 1 is 50K+. Remember that Tesla Energy got 35K reservations in one night. No money down was needed there though.

There will be 100K+ reservations after the first month.

There will be 350K+ reservations by the end of the year.

I feel pretty confident in my personal WAG estimations.

 

[MikeC]

I think 100,000 worldwide in the first 24 hours is absolutely realistic.

 

[Tam]

...day 1 is 50K+...

I love the optimism but lots of people still want to kick the tires for themselves first before they would open up their wallets.

 

[Grendal]

I love the optimism but lots of people still want to kick the tires for themselves first before they would open their wallet.

You have to figure worldwide demand. There are just too many people that have already been waiting years for this car to show up. 50K is really not that many. That is why I had an initial rush that trickled off then slowly built over the year. I'm an optimistic person but I actually went for a lot lower numbers than my enthusiasm wanted them to be.

Of course, I could be completely wrong.

 

[ucmndd]

I think 100,000 worldwide in the first 24 hours is absolutely realistic.

For comparison, BMW sold about 300k 3 series in Europe and the US in 2015 (evenly split at ~150k each). That was an entire year, with cars actually available and delivered - of the most popular premium/luxury sedan in the world.

I'm all for the Model 3 in every way. I hope Tesla kills it and they sell millions of them. There's undoubtedly pent up demand. But the idea of 100k reservations, at $1000 a pop, in 24 hours, for a car that won't be delivered for ~2 years, is the sort of absurdity that only seems realistic on car forums.

 

[wallet.dat]

If it's just 100K, I wouldn't worry about camping out the night before to beat the crowds.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think 100k will be exceeded pretty quick. But whether it's 24 hours or 1 week is har to tell.

 

[WarpedOne]

In situations like this any parallels with other products are just false. There just aint any comparable product/situations out there. I for one am waiting for this car last 10 years. I didn't see it but what I did see and drove makse absolutely certan i will love m3.

100k on day one might end up being to low estimate. World is full of people whole loved roadster and could not afford it, and there are a few dozen times more people wanting S and could not afford it. Model 3 already has 10 years of advertising behind itself. If it didn't create 100k future customers it failed badly.

There is this rule of thumb that every 5k lower price, doubles the demand. From 70k down to 35k there is 7 souch doubling, those 30k X reservations in three years become 4M reservations. I cant force myself to believe this number at face value but it does set a bar what normal would look like.