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As it stands now Tesla has deemed it a losing sales proposition to offer a larger capacity battery for the Roadster; as it will be a very expensive pack and have a limited market. The thinking must be that if a Roadster customer wants a longer range vehicle, they should purchase a Model S. The Model S may get a larger capacity battery in the future as it makes a lot more sense than the Roadster. I just don't think it will be a freebie for customers who prepaid for their battery.
A few thoughts from a Roadster owner that didn't buy the battery insurance:
- 95% of the driving I do is under 30 miles round trip (home to work and local errands) and another 4% is under 50 miles. So even if my roadster could only go 100 miles in 8 years, I think that would be fine. I think a lot of people are worried about the range but I think they will find that they actually need a lot less range than they think.
- As someone has pointed out, if you got the battery replacement option and didn't exercise it after 8 years they would refund you a portion. So that does give you some flexibility.
- The suspension issue raised above would only be a factor if you an 85KWH battery in 8 years weighs as much as it does today. But I would imagine that the packs would weigh less than. In fact I am hoping that whenever I do upgrade my battery in my Roadster I will get a performance improvement just by shedding some weight (and hopefully more by the batteries being able to discharge faster).
- I had been hoping that in 8 years EVs would have taken off and 3rd parties would provide additional options. I am not sure how feasible that will really be because I think the entire PEM and not just the batteries would need to be swapped out and the firmware would probably need to be tweaked as well. I hope that in the future things can be standardized but that is probably further out.
- I doubt this will happen but you also take the risk that Tesla will be out of business in 8 years and the warranty money will be lost. Of course if that happens you have bigger issues (like the entire car being worthless-ish) but losing an extra $12k would add insult to injury. Ultimately that wasn't a factor in me not getting the warranty.
Overall I don't think there is a right or wrong answer. It's like prepaying your mortgage. If you feel better having peace of mind go for it. After all, not everything is about money...
- 95% of the driving I do is under 30 miles round trip (home to work and local errands) and another 4% is under 50 miles. So even if my roadster could only go 100 miles in 8 years, I think that would be fine. I think a lot of people are worried about the range but I think they will find that they actually need a lot less range than they think.
- As someone has pointed out, if you got the battery replacement option and didn't exercise it after 8 years they would refund you a portion. So that does give you some flexibility.
- The suspension issue raised above would only be a factor if you an 85KWH battery in 8 years weighs as much as it does today. But I would imagine that the packs would weigh less than. In fact I am hoping that whenever I do upgrade my battery in my Roadster I will get a performance improvement just by shedding some weight (and hopefully more by the batteries being able to discharge faster).
- I had been hoping that in 8 years EVs would have taken off and 3rd parties would provide additional options. I am not sure how feasible that will really be because I think the entire PEM and not just the batteries would need to be swapped out and the firmware would probably need to be tweaked as well. I hope that in the future things can be standardized but that is probably further out.
- I doubt this will happen but you also take the risk that Tesla will be out of business in 8 years and the warranty money will be lost. Of course if that happens you have bigger issues (like the entire car being worthless-ish) but losing an extra $12k would add insult to injury. Ultimately that wasn't a factor in me not getting the warranty.
Overall I don't think there is a right or wrong answer. It's like prepaying your mortgage. If you feel better having peace of mind go for it. After all, not everything is about money...
I don't expect it to be a "free" upgrade from 85 kWh to (say) 100 kWh if you buy the $12k plan up-front.
What I would like to see (and hope they'll speak to) is an option to pay a small delta (like $3k) to upgrade to a 100 kWh if you bought the 85 kWh plan 8 years prior.
(reading the link) Wait, what? So the longer you wait, you start getting money back?! So the $12,000 Roadster replacement becomes cheaper? Yeah, yeah, I'm ignoring that you could've made interest on it in the interim...still, I'm surprised. I look forward to the Model S details.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
(reading the link) Wait, what? So the longer you wait, you start getting money back?! So the $12,000 Roadster replacement becomes cheaper? Yeah, yeah, I'm ignoring that you could've made interest on it in the interim...still, I'm surprised. I look forward to the Model S details.
Yep. That's exactly right. And there is no way that Roadster owners without the battery replacement option will be replacing their battery for $10K.
It looks like MotorTrend got some additional info regarding the battery replacement option:
http://wot.motortrend.com/tesla-mod...nt-costs-8000-12000-298793.html#axzz2DiU0BwJx
It mentions that the battery replacement would carry forward to subsequent owners, and you have 90 days from delivery to decide whether to exercise the prepaid option.
http://wot.motortrend.com/tesla-mod...nt-costs-8000-12000-298793.html#axzz2DiU0BwJx
It mentions that the battery replacement would carry forward to subsequent owners, and you have 90 days from delivery to decide whether to exercise the prepaid option.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
90 days...no way I'll be able to pull that off financially unless they offer some sort of financing plan for it. Would have rolled that into my auto loan if it had been an option when I paid for the car.
This might be comparing Apples to Oranges, but here is a real world example that I was part of. My 11 year old Honda Insight needed a new battery in 2011. After investigating various options I found that Honda was retailing the replacement battery for $2,400. An outfit in New Jersey was selling a drop in replacement using a newer battery technology (upgraded cells) for about $1,800. I was going to go with that, but Honda offered to replace my battery for $900 for whatever reason. I couldn't pass that up. This is just an example of what can happen after 8+ years.
There has been a *lot* of effort going into battery technology lately. Take a look at this link http://seekingalpha.com/article/1024301-will-tesla-disrupt which was referenced from the "Bluestar pricing and options" thread.
If you believe this analysis, the battery technology that may be available around the 2015/16 time frame for the GenIII vehicle could see the Wh/Kg go from the current Model S value of 245 to possibly 525. There could be a battery available in 4 years that weighs half as much that provides more power. Smaller batteries = smaller cars = better range. You get the idea. Technology advances. I guess my take on buying a $12k 85Kw replacement now for 8 years down the road is that 8 years from now things might be *radically* different WRT battery performance. I would think that given this possibility, many model S owners will move on to the Model S 2.0 that incorporates the better battery available then. Where that car will either have much better range, or be quite a bit less expensive and offer the same range as the current Model S.
But like Bonnie said, it's not always about the money. And, an 8 year old Model S will probably still be a killer car for most people. So being able to drop in a replacement 85Kw battery will provide great resale possibilities for current owners. Unless of course the Model S 2.0 offers such a compelling improvement that the resale value of the current Model S suffers to some degree. Should be interesting going forward.
RT
There has been a *lot* of effort going into battery technology lately. Take a look at this link http://seekingalpha.com/article/1024301-will-tesla-disrupt which was referenced from the "Bluestar pricing and options" thread.
If you believe this analysis, the battery technology that may be available around the 2015/16 time frame for the GenIII vehicle could see the Wh/Kg go from the current Model S value of 245 to possibly 525. There could be a battery available in 4 years that weighs half as much that provides more power. Smaller batteries = smaller cars = better range. You get the idea. Technology advances. I guess my take on buying a $12k 85Kw replacement now for 8 years down the road is that 8 years from now things might be *radically* different WRT battery performance. I would think that given this possibility, many model S owners will move on to the Model S 2.0 that incorporates the better battery available then. Where that car will either have much better range, or be quite a bit less expensive and offer the same range as the current Model S.
But like Bonnie said, it's not always about the money. And, an 8 year old Model S will probably still be a killer car for most people. So being able to drop in a replacement 85Kw battery will provide great resale possibilities for current owners. Unless of course the Model S 2.0 offers such a compelling improvement that the resale value of the current Model S suffers to some degree. Should be interesting going forward.
RT
Paying $12K to save about $8K or less 8 years in the future assuming you keep the car, it's not totaled, Tesla stays in business, there isn't a battery breakthrough, battery loss isn't as high as expected, there aren't fast chargers widely available, etc. doesn't sound like a particularly compelling option to me. If supercharger or equivalent fast chargers were widely available it might make sense to just stay with the 68 kwh battery with 210 mile range anyway.
Assume an 8% per year drop in $/kwh, a current cost of $450/kwh and the battery losing 20% of it's capacity in 8 years. The original battery would still have 68 kwh capacity, so you'd be paying $12K today for about 17 kwh 8 years from now. That's about $706 / kwh at a time when the cost is likely to be around $230/kwh.
If battery recycling/reuse becomes a profitable business, there might be a significant value to the core as well, so replacing the battery could be significantly less than buying a new one. A new 68 kwh battery at the time would be about $15,700. If you could get 1/3 of the value of a new 68 kwh battery for your used one, that would be about $5K, so the net for a new 85 kwh battery might be around $15K.
OTOH, a new 130 kwh battery would be about $30K minus core value and would extend the range to just over 400 mi.
Assume an 8% per year drop in $/kwh, a current cost of $450/kwh and the battery losing 20% of it's capacity in 8 years. The original battery would still have 68 kwh capacity, so you'd be paying $12K today for about 17 kwh 8 years from now. That's about $706 / kwh at a time when the cost is likely to be around $230/kwh.
If battery recycling/reuse becomes a profitable business, there might be a significant value to the core as well, so replacing the battery could be significantly less than buying a new one. A new 68 kwh battery at the time would be about $15,700. If you could get 1/3 of the value of a new 68 kwh battery for your used one, that would be about $5K, so the net for a new 85 kwh battery might be around $15K.
OTOH, a new 130 kwh battery would be about $30K minus core value and would extend the range to just over 400 mi.
@RDoc: I agree, the numbers are, at best, close. If battery costs decline at 4%/year (instead of the 8%/year historical trend), you can earn 3.6% aftertax on invested funds (a conservatively low figure on 8-year bonds), and used packs are worth only 60% of a same-sized new pack (again, a conservatively large discount), then the warranty is just slightly to the good. Change any of the conservative assumptions to something more middle-of-the-road, and the warranty comes out somewhat worse. Of course, there is the installation cost--that could be a fair chunk of the $12k.
I wrote something to this effect in the price increase thread (that got kind of off topic) and I'll repeat it here. RubberToe's comments are precisely why Tesla should give us an upgrade path to the then- state of the art battery. Having significantly better battery technology in competitive vehicles (Tesla or otherwise) would severely impact the value of our cars in 8 years. Who would want 85 kwH based on decade old technology when you can get something then that's much much better? This isn't a little bit of better gas mileage we're talking about like in an ICE, it's potentially a radical evolution that could eliminate range issues entirely. We just don't know.
If Tesla included an upgrade path in the prepaid option I'd buy it in a heartbeat.
If Tesla included an upgrade path in the prepaid option I'd buy it in a heartbeat.
I'd love Tesla to offer an grade path but the question is "What to?" Tesla's engineering geniuses might have a better idea than us but even they can't know for sure. How do they offer an upgrade path with an unknown destination? (Assuming we're not just talking about 40 or 60kWh up to 85)
Same with the Roadster though it seems Tesla is buying used ones and totaled cars and refurbishing them. Does that mean they are pulling sheets or cells and repackaging them for resale? At some point they will be all gone but this is program they could continue with the S.
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You are waaay wrong here. If you don't follow Roadster info, I understand, but Tesla has actually made a point to say they are supporting Roadsters. New accessories are going up on the Tesla website every few week lately. New upgrades coming include a racing motor. A battery pack is not out of the question then. (fingers crossed)
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