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With 7% inflation and 15% capital gains, a 10% return only nets you a ~1.5% real return… 😬

If they went to 25% like some are proposing you’d only earn a 0.5% real return on a 10% gain in this environment. 🤣

Moral of the story: stick with TSLA

Just wait till inflation couples with the declining labor market. (yes yes I know the "official" numbers say we are "adding" jobs - but they conveniently leave out the people leaving the workforce entirely for early retirement, etc.)

Can you say stagflation? Worst possible outcome.
 
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but they conveniently leave out the people leaving the workforce entirely for early retirement, etc.)

Can you say stagflation? Worst possible outcome.
Being able to afford an early retirement is the worst possible outcome? I've certainly been enjoying not needing to work ever again, didn't realize I've been suffering this whole time.
 
Being able to afford an early retirement is the worst possible outcome? I've certainly been enjoying not needing to work ever again, didn't realize I've been suffering this whole time.

Twisting my words again, I see.

I didn't say the individual was suffering, but a shrinking workforce is not a good thing for the economy overall in the long run.

EDIT - Ask Japan how that's been working out for them in the past 20 years.

EDIT 2 - Even Elon mentioned insufficient labor as a concern long-term in his interview this week. Possibly solvable long-term with Tesla Bot, but not in the short or medium term.
 
You said labor stats "conveniently" don't count people who retired, implying something underhanded, but why should should they be counted? Makes no sense.

Because many economists view the "labor participation rate" in conjunction with the unemployment rate as a far more accurate interpretation of the job market than simply the unemployment rate (which doesn't count people that have "stopped looking for work" for whatever reason).

Google it, the participation rate has been dropping steadily for 2 decades, but tanked hard core during the pandemic and hasn't bounced back like economists had hoped.
 
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If participation drops because of wealth gains that's a good thing, no?
We DO still need workers or else productivity falls, which ultimately leads to growth stalling - and in this climate leads to stagflation. Central banks & monetary policy hates a few things.. DEFLATION most, STAGFLATION next most, then comes high and rising inflation. Particpation rates had been rising and stable at historically high levels up through the Great Recession, and have been falling ever since.. Certainly there was a drop to a nadar during last years mini-fastest-deepest-recession and has been SLOWLY rising since, but with most likely 1.5-2.5 million fewer workers interested in working at this point, it will be hard to get back up to higher levels soon. The Tesla Bot can’t come soon enough.

As some have asked, isn’t it good that some workers have enough money and have seen that growth in portfolios, housing prices, etc. While it’s better than the opposite, consumption is NOT productivity and we really do need both.
 
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Because many economists view the "labor participation rate" in conjunction with the unemployment rate as a far more accurate interpretation of the job market than simply the unemployment rate (which doesn't count people that have "stopped looking for work" for whatever reason).

Google it, the participation rate has been dropping steadily for 2 decades, but tanked hard core during the pandemic and hasn't bounced back like economists had hoped.
To be clear though some participation drop is expected as the country gets grayer and grayer. Pandemic really hit it hard. Mayo Clinic in October said 1.5M people cant go back to work because of Long Covid. Then throw in people who lost day care with older parents and grandparents dying from Covid.
 
Certainly there was a drop to a nadar during last years mini-fastest-deepest-recession and has been SLOWLY rising since, but with most likely 1.5-2.5 million fewer workers interested in working at this point, it will be hard to get back up to higher levels soon.
We're still in the middle of a global pandemic so it would seem reasonable the rise is slow.
The Tesla Bot can’t come soon enough.
Agree.
 
If participation drops because of wealth gains that's a good thing, no?

Your assumption is in error. Most people are not TMCers with TSLA shares. Most are just leaving the work force due to age (baby boomers), health, or other concerns.


Intentionally avoiding the politics that could be associated with this topic, and sticking to this as my point:
Low labor participation rates reduce the productivity of all companies in the economy, but especially those like Tesla which are growing rapidly. Tesla, fortunately, has an excellent reputation, and that helps mitigate some of this by allowing them to pick the cream of the crop, but they are undoubtedly affected by the high unemployment and low labor participation rates which reduce earnings and slow growth.

Economies with high labor participation rates are also able to more rapidly contain inflation and return to prosperous growth.
 
Because many economists view the "labor participation rate" in conjunction with the unemployment rate as a far more accurate interpretation of the job market than simply the unemployment rate (which doesn't count people that have "stopped looking for work" for whatever reason).

Google it, the participation rate has been dropping steadily for 2 decades, but tanked hard core during the pandemic and hasn't bounced back like economists had hoped.
I fell into that trap in 2006 and always concluded there were many others like me.

I was in my mid 40's and got retired early from Intel along with a bunch of other Engineers. I took their "package" and never took a single unemployment check in my life (still), and managed to pick up the odd contract gig here and there.

Was I employed? Mostly no, I was dipping into my IRA (2% max annual, no penalty), so I was cheating retirement, pretending. By the time I hit 50, it was crystal clear I couldn't work anywhere permanent at my age without expert niche skills that I lacked for the market.

Was I unemployed per census? No. And in my mind, I was Self-employed.
Did I contribute to growth or GDP or Exports? No.
Did I live off existing funds, side work, and other support to bridge this very large gap. Yes.

Back to the question earlier: Was I retired? Am I still retired? Yes, but No. In the Gov't mind, yes.

As a result of my experience, I always consider "unemployment data" as just another tool and a joke. I mean, what does this country actually produce besides loans, pills, insurance, and ICE autos? I think we're the retired generation, and when our money runs out (and nearly did for me), it's not looking good for keeping their scheme running.
 
To be clear though some participation drop is expected as the country gets grayer and grayer. Pandemic really hit it hard. Mayo Clinic in October said 1.5M people cant go back to work because of Long Covid. Then throw in people who lost day care with older parents and grandparents dying from Covid.

Agreed, and that was represented in the long-term decline we had been seeing over the past 20 years. That was already baked in to expectations as an aging population.
 
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Agreed, and that was represented in the long-term decline we had been seeing over the past 20 years. That was already baked in to expectations as an aging population.
Huge working age population declines haven’t quite hit Japan yet.

The bad point could happen when Japans and similar countries’ labor force starts declining faster than it’s natural productivity growth rate, essentially guaranteeing indefinite economic decline… and there could be even worse effects in that investment is now global, and a declining market is going to chase away the investments that will be needed in order to make productivity grow!

The US is much better in this area, though I think we should really open up the spigots soon to skilled immigrants… this is really America’s secret weapon.
 
Most are just leaving the work force due to age (baby boomers), health, or other concerns.
But they can afford to do so. So pandemic plus boomers retiring plus people able to retire early will of course = lower growth of the work force. From your link:
Conventional wisdom about falling labor force participation rates is that discouraged workers are dropping out of the labor force. But that conclusion can be misleading, especially when the country is experiencing significant demographic shifts, such as changes in the age distribution of the U.S. population the last decade.


As a result, demographic changes rather than economic and labor market conditions may be the driving factor behind labor force participation and unemployment rates.
 
But they can afford to do so. So pandemic plus boomers retiring plus people able to retire early will of course = lower growth of the work force. From your link:

Read all of the links. What you picked out to quote is actually not completely agreed upon by economists.

And many people are just scraping by yet still are counted as "unemployed". See post in main thread by someone that gave their personal experience.