More anti-ev gibberish

[mklcolvin]

Agreed

My first thought when I hear someone spouting that quote is to think: Let's see, we give one competitor a 100-year head start, then hear them complain that we're trying to make the race more fair by helping the other. Sounds like a scene from the movie "The Dictator", where Sasha Baron Cohen (the dictator) starts running in a footrace while holding the starter pistol. After several yards of running, he finally fires the pistol to let the other runners start. When a few runners start closing in on him, he shoots them in the leg with the starter pistol! Level playing field, indeed.

My favorite


Somehow producing 7,500 to 10,000 electric cars a year is level playing field as producing 250,000 ICE competitor cars. The whole point of the $7,500 federal credit is to help lower the cost of the cars until they are being produced at comparable levels.

This is EXACTLY how subsudies work. That and for items that have higher upfront costs, but save money in the long run. Again perfectly applicable to electric cars. [/FONT][/COLOR]

 

[daniel]

I'm late on this comment, but the 60% won't consider an EV is probably true now, but the significance of this is the opposite of what the nay-sayers claim. Electric cars are in their infancy. There are only a handful available. Most people have strong ideas about what they want in a car as regards styling, features, performance, etc. Pick any car model you like, and far more than 60% "would not consider it."

Public charging infrastructure is scarce to nonexistent in most places. EVs in the mass-market price class have too little range for extended driving, and public perception has not yet embraced the concept of having one commuter car and one distance car. Batteries are expensive and with only 3 or 4 years history on the oldest lithium-powered EVs, battery longevity has not yet built up a reliability history.

Put all this together, and the surprising thing is the 40% of drivers would consider an EV at this time. As more models are introduced for a greater range of choices, and more public charging is installed, and battery prices decline and gas prices rise, and people's paradigm about transportation shifts to include the idea of "division of labor" between cars in a multi-car household, and reliability experience accrues, and the grid gets cleaner while extraction of ever-deeper and more difficult oil becomes dirtier, this number will rise.

And there's no need for everyone to want an EV today because today the total production of EVs could not meet such a demand. It takes time to build production capacity, and it takes time to change public perception, and there will be an organic increase in both now that car makers are building EVs not because CARB says they have to, but because they see it as a profitable product. The Tesla Roadster showed the world that an EV need not be a golf cart. The Leaf showed people that an EV can be an affordable family car. The Model S will show people that an EV can have the size, performance, and appeal of a BMW. (Not that I'd ever consider a BMW, but it's a popular symbol of automotive excellence.) And EVs are starting to fill other automotive niches.

EVs are here, and they're here to stay, and they're (gradually) going to replace a significant number of stinkers on the road. But it won't happen overnight. 60% will not consider them today, and that's fine because the industry could not supply 60% of drivers today. Maybe next year it will be 55% and maybe in a decade it will be 25% who won't consider an EV. Rome wasn't built in a day.

 

[dhrivnak]

I saw MPT chimed in but I'm afraid with a little bit of misinformation. As has been discussed before, his statement

is not accurate on a well to wheels basis.

What is the foundation that a Prius is better? I own a Prius 45mpg here in the hills of Tennessee and I have a Roadster that averages 4 miles/KWH. I am also assuming an 85% charging effiency. [/I]We get our power from AEP which is particularly dirty with 80% coal. When I used AEP's numbers http://www.aepsustainability.com/docs/2011_AEP_CAReport.pdf
on CO2 per KWH my roadster gives off 13% less CO2. Then if you factor in the electricity is delivered to my home and the gasoline needs to be refined. If you add in EIA's information on refining http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/pdf/industry_mecs.pdf
I now calculate a 22% reduction in CO2. And remember we have some of the dirtiest power in the country and the Prius is best in class.

PS Daniel on your last post on this thread I belive you are right on. Unfortunately even now I am afraid demand for EV's is very low as the Leafs and Volts are not yet jumping off the lots. At least not yet.

 

[mpt]

@JRP3 I'm satisfied with the sources of information that are at hand that, on a wheel-to-wheel basis the Roadster beats the Prius. I'll contend that, at worst it's still better, at 'normal' about 1/5th the CO2 output and at best about 1/10th. When you get into the realms of local solar/geo/hydro, it's game over.

 

[Dave EV]

Unfortunately even now I am afraid demand for EV's is very low as the Leafs and Volts are not yet jumping off the lots. At least not yet.

LEAFs are still supply constrained. Nissan can't produce batteries fast enough. This will change later this year when Smyrma and the Sunderland plants start ramping up production. Currently they are so supply constrained that they are using LG Chem to supply batteries for Renault in Europe. The new battery factories are expected to start ramping up production late summer/early fall this year and Nissan says to expect a jump in LEAF sales then when the 2013 LEAF starts shipping.

The Volt - well, they've been dogged by a PR nightmare (many otherwise rational people people still think they spontaneously combust) and they made the mistake of launching the Volt before it was AT-PZEV compliant which really hurt sales in it's major markets like California. It still has a few shortcomings which I expect GM to address after they revise it - have to get the price a bit lower, have to reduce weight and have to increase usable space.

2013-2014 will see a large ramp in EV sales more models hit the market (Ford has the plug-in C-Max and Fusion coming out later this year) and the leaders (Tesla/Nissan/GM) start shipping 2nd-gen models of their plug-ins.

 

[jerry33]

PS Daniel on your last post on this thread I belive you are right on. Unfortunately even now I am afraid demand for EV's is very low as the Leafs and Volts are not yet jumping off the lots. At least not yet.

Remember that the Prius only sold about 53,000 units in North America the first three years. Early sales don't mean a lot. When the 2004 came out Toyota put a lot of money into advertising in the various car magazines (though not necessarily for the Prius) and, by golly, it got rave reviews which created a demand. Funny how that works.

The last thing any manufacturer wants to do is to put out a bunch of cars that either have some hidden flaw, Fisker, have tons of first year problems, Leaf, or are just sitting on the lot, Volt. Having a limited supply, Leaf, allows the first cars to get into the hand of people who really want them and are willing to put up with the growing pains so that the next generation is ready for public consumption. Even if there was no battery constraint, I doubt that Nissan would ship more than they are now.

 

[Grendal]

When people point out EV tax breaks, remind them of the other things that they are allowed to write off such as their home and children. As people who are against bigger government they should be for every tax break possible because then they are giving less to their hated overspending government. The other thing they should be rooting for is energy independence. The bookworm group disagreed with that by citing that there are plenty of resources on American soil. While true, they don't factor in the cost of getting those resources. The bookworm group are pidgeon holing EV's as a Democratic/Left wing standard and goal and so they are knee-jerk against them.

 

[vfx]

Oil from the US like oil from everywhere goes in a big pool.

 

[Norbert]

The bookworm group are pidgeon holing EV's as a Democratic/Left wing standard and goal and so they are knee-jerk against them.

Yes, most of their arguments are against subsidies, not against solar or electric. They confuse solar and electric with the current politics behind them, which means they can't think for themselves.

 

[rolosrevenge]

It's a big shame. Though I've personally managed to buck the trend.

 

[JRP3]

@JRP3 I'm satisfied with the sources of information that are at hand that, on a wheel-to-wheel basis the Roadster beats the Prius. I'll contend that, at worst it's still better, at 'normal' about 1/5th the CO2 output and at best about 1/10th. When you get into the realms of local solar/geo/hydro, it's game over.

Regarding your specific statement that EV"s on 100% coal are still better than a Prius, using this document from 2009, which covers emissions from mining, transporting, processing, and combustion of coal, current technology is shown to produce 2.7 lbs of CO2 per kWh, or 1224.7 grams per kWh. Using 4 miles per kWh that's 306 grams per mile. The Prius including upstream emissions is rated at 222 grams per mile Compare Side-by-Side If there is more recent comprehensive coal emissions data showing different numbers I would of course be interested in seeing it.

 

[JRP3]

Can someone explain electric cars to me?

I noticed mention of a Roadster owner who experienced a full lockup on the highway, twice. Anyone aware of this event? That is how a three phase AC induction motor can fail if one of the phases drops out I think, so it is plausible, though I would expect a safety system that cuts all motor power if one phase is lost, allowing the car to keep rolling to a stop. Also the mention of not being able to move a dead Roadster and needing a crane makes no sense since the front wheels should still roll if you simply lift up the rear with a tow truck.

 

[rolosrevenge]

I noticed mention of a Roadster owner who experienced a full lockup on the highway, twice. Anyone aware of this event? That is how a three phase AC induction motor can fail if one of the phases drops out I think, so it is plausible, though I would expect a safety system that cuts all motor power if one phase is lost, allowing the car to keep rolling to a stop. Also the mention of not being able to move a dead Roadster and needing a crane makes no sense since the front wheels should still roll if you simply lift up the rear with a tow truck.

I know a guy who has a Sig 100 Roadster who said that in the early days he experienced two "catastrophic failures" (his words) that left him stranded on the highway. He cited them as one of the reasons to not drive his Roadster very often (the other was the collector value (hopefully) of a low mileage sig 100). I don't know if this is referencing his case or not. I think it was a PEM failure in his case due to firmware issues.

 

[Norbert]

The Prius including upstream emissions is rated at 222 grams per mile Compare Side-by-Side If there is more recent comprehensive coal emissions data showing different numbers I would of course be interested in seeing it.

However that's of course comparing the best case for hybrids, against the worst case for EVs. Many hybrids are around or below 35 mpg, and those appear to loose that comaprison with 100% coal. And I doubt that many of those who might make that argument actually drive a Prius, or even would consider buying one. And of course, even in the worst states, the numbers are better than 100 % coal.

For comparison, according to the same website, the Leaf gets 120 g/mile in my zip code.

 

[Norbert]

I noticed mention of a Roadster owner who experienced a full lockup on the highway, twice. Anyone aware of this event? That is how a three phase AC induction motor can fail if one of the phases drops out I think, so it is plausible, though I would expect a safety system that cuts all motor power if one phase is lost, allowing the car to keep rolling to a stop. Also the mention of not being able to move a dead Roadster and needing a crane makes no sense since the front wheels should still roll if you simply lift up the rear with a tow truck.

It doesn't even mean anything. I personally know someone whose ICE caught fire simply driving in mountain area.

 

[JRP3]

I'm trying to find out if it actually happened, because there should be built in safe guards that prevent it. I was just discussing this with a controller designer who says that a lost phase should cause the controller to power down, as should a shorted IGBT, unless there was a software glitch, or a stuck contactor.

 

[JRP3]

However that's of course comparing the best case for hybrids, against the worst case for EVs. Many hybrids are around or below 35 mpg, and those appear to loose that comaprison with 100% coal. And I doubt that many of those who might make that argument actually drive a Prius, or even would consider buying one. And of course, even in the worst states, the numbers are better than 100 % coal.

For comparison, according to the same website, the Leaf gets 120 g/mile in my zip code.

I was addressing a specific comment, that a coal powered EV has lower CO2 emissions than a Prius. I'm not talking about any other scenario. As has been discussed elsewhere in many places if you plug in at night the extra load will be supplied by coal, no matter what the overall generating mix may be.

 

[jerry33]

As has been discussed elsewhere in many places if you plug in at night the extra load will be supplied by coal, no matter what the overall generating mix may be.

But doesn't the coal plant run all night regardless of whether anyone uses the electric power or not? In which case, it's a non-issue because the pollution still happens.

 

[JRP3]

Yes and no. Yes it still runs at night, but at reduced output, and therefore reduced coal usage. As more load is added more coal is tossed on the fire.

 

[Robert.Boston]

But doesn't the coal plant run all night regardless of whether anyone uses the electric power or not? In which case, it's a non-issue because the pollution still happens.

No. Electrical systems must precisely balance supply and demand in real-time; otherwise, the voltage fluctuates from the reference. Coal plants do indeed ramp down overnight, burning less coal and causing less pollution. It is a very rare situation (called a "min gen emergency") when we've run out of downward ramp and are faced with an over-generation issue.