Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Any explanation why Tesla was $800 6 months ago and today, but was $1200 3 months ago if it's tied to fundamentals and awesome Q4 performance?
Because markets move in cycles.
Which is why looking at short term trends demonstrates you don't understand long term growth....(or you keep intentionally focusing on short term because you realize it's the only way to make your argument look less silly).
Tesla is up roughly 20,000% in 10 years. Up almost 1500% in 5 years. Almost 500% in 2 years.
The long term fundamental growth story is pretty obvious to anyone willing to look.
Month to month short term trends are market noise, not relevant to long term fundamentals or investment.
Google is down almost 20% from this years high- did their fundamentals collapse, or is that just a blip in the ticket for short term thinkers? Even Apple is down over 10% YTD, did iphone "fundamentals" suddenly change? Of course not.
That's OBVIOUS from the fact that Tesla has less profit/sales than Toyota, yet 5X the market cap.
Tesla has much higher profit per sale than Toyota.
And higher still than Ford or GM.
And Teslas sales keep growing >50% YoY, while everyone elses are declining.
I'm not sure obvious means what you think.
Why would they value future vehicle sales so highly
The same reason Apple, with a minority market share in phones reaps most of the profits
Teslas margins are massively better than everyone elses.
Why is Tesla's 12 month average P/E 125X
Because you're looking backward.
P/E has been dropping rapidly, and will continue doing so all year.
(PEG is likely a better measure of a growth company though, and that's quite a bit lower for this year)
. Tesla's current value basically requires it to take over 100% of passenger vehicle sales on the planet.
That's complete nonsense.
Since Tesla is making 2-5x the profit of other car companies they only need a fraction of the total sales to beat them in profits.
See again Apple.
Apple takes 75% of smartphone profits despite 13% market share, says report
New research from Counterpoint claims that Apple managed to capture 75% of smartphone profits in Q2 2021 despite only accounting for 13% of mobile shipments last quarter.
www.imore.com
Apple is only 13 percent of global smartphones sold.
But 75 percent of all smartphone profits
Tesla has stated they want to be selling ~20 million cars by end of decade.
Q4 was 2.9b non-gaap profit (ex the one time stock thing).
That's almost 12 billion annual profit on ~1 million vehicle sales
Scale that to 20 million vehicles and you get 240 billion in annual profit.
That's ten times Toyotas annual profit.
But Teslas market cap is only 2.5x higher.
Suggests Tesla stock is actually quite cheap right now
And again- that's JUST the car business.
Energy will be an increasing profit contributor. Solar will once the chip stuff is sorted. Insurance will too as it expands.
So will subscription revenue from an app/game store.
All of that is with $0 value from FSD.
If they DO actually get that working at >L2 the value really goes nuts. But it's perfectly excellent without it too.
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