You are ignoring that Germans have a bigger lineup. So people will just get a E-Class or 5-Seriers instead, there a very few people who really need a large luxury sedan, have a chauffeur and take advantage of the executive rear seating and if you want space you get station wagons here. Sure this isn't great for their sales either, but they will make sales while some people might simply be priced out of a Tesla or not willing to spend that much in a uncertain economic situation.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
I am ignoring nothing.
Yes, most OEMs make more type of cars and cheaper cars. Right now Tesla is a niche automaker trying to become a small premium automaker.
As time goes on there are less super environmentalist that are switching from smaller/cheaper cars to Model S than those switching from an equivalent car to Model S.
I am sure there is at least one financial analyst in a posh part of London that was thinking of buying a Model S that will now get a Ford Mondeo instead.
Like I said all new cars are indirect competitors to a new Model S.
But that is not the where the bulk of the Tesla market is now.
Yes, most OEMs make more type of cars and cheaper cars. Right now Tesla is a niche automaker trying to become a small premium automaker.
As time goes on there are less super environmentalist that are switching from smaller/cheaper cars to Model S than those switching from an equivalent car to Model S.
I am sure there is at least one financial analyst in a posh part of London that was thinking of buying a Model S that will now get a Ford Mondeo instead.
Like I said all new cars are indirect competitors to a new Model S.
But that is not the where the bulk of the Tesla market is now.
The risk for Tesla in the UK is a (temporary) dip in the luxury car market. The bulk of Tesla's market is still price sensitive. Also, it's quite possible a significant number of financial types will postpone the purchase of a new car because they run the run of seeing their job relocated to Frankfurt.
UK wasn't a very large market so far, was it? Do we have a breakdown of UK sales vs. euro-denominated sales? The drop in the pound will probably reduce UK sales, but is that significant?
(Or am I totally wrong? I'm having trouble parsing out the numbers -- was the UK the biggest of the European markets for Tesla?)
(Or am I totally wrong? I'm having trouble parsing out the numbers -- was the UK the biggest of the European markets for Tesla?)
UK came out of nowhere to be the number 1 market in Europe (alongside Norway) for the past couple quarters.
Benz
Active Member
Sweden is 77 for June, down from 234 last quarter and 142 last year. Austria is 113, down from 127 last quarter and up from 83 last year.
Benz already reported slow Dutch numbers and the Norwegian update from the 25th (178) wasn't really good either. To be honest these numbers surprise me to the downside. Orders in Q1 in Europe were supposedly up compared with last year per the shareholder letter. First quarter European orders are mostly delivered in the second quarter. So comparing second quarter this year with last year we should see deliveries move up from 3904 last year. Yet that is absolutely not going to happen. It's even possible we might (just) miss 3000! That's a huge decline and brings us back to 2014 even. Not sure how that can happen. Anyone has any insight here?
Benz already reported slow Dutch numbers and the Norwegian update from the 25th (178) wasn't really good either. To be honest these numbers surprise me to the downside. Orders in Q1 in Europe were supposedly up compared with last year per the shareholder letter. First quarter European orders are mostly delivered in the second quarter. So comparing second quarter this year with last year we should see deliveries move up from 3904 last year. Yet that is absolutely not going to happen. It's even possible we might (just) miss 3000! That's a huge decline and brings us back to 2014 even. Not sure how that can happen. Anyone has any insight here?
I do not expect Tesla to deliver more MS cars overall than in Q1, so may be 12.5K total. It is plausible that US deliveries in Q2 stayed the same as in Q1, while split between Europe and Asia shifted, with more cars than in Q1 delivered in Asia, and less in Europe. I do not believe that Tesla can exceed 1100 - 1200 MS produced per week until Model X is fully ramped up and they start blending MS body production into the new high capacity BIW line, which will most likely be producing only MX until full ramp-up of MX production is complete.
In order to meet guidance of 17K they will need to deliver about 4.5K of MX. I believe that they will deliver more, between 5.5K and 6.5K, with total deliveries 18K-19K, but it is just speculation at this point.
In order to meet guidance of 17K they will need to deliver about 4.5K of MX. I believe that they will deliver more, between 5.5K and 6.5K, with total deliveries 18K-19K, but it is just speculation at this point.
I was already suspecting this. It think comes down to different durations between order place and delivery. I have not looked very close at those numbers, but here is one example where you can see completely different delivery estimates for Norway which made up 25% of Q2 deliveries (of course not all 85D cars, so it's not that dramatic, but you could probably find a few more cases like this), especially with the D roll out in late 2014.
But the shareholder letter was clear that orders in Europe in Q1 were up as well. If deliveries this quarter instead were diverted to Asia, were did the cars to fulfill European Q1 orders came from? Maybe Q1 2015 European orders were exceptionally weak at 2500 or so. Although that doesn't make sense since Tesla was consistently delivering 1000 cars more each quarter?
Edit : Spidy has a good explanation and maybe indeed the effect was that dramatic in pulling demand towards the release of the dual motor/AP versions.
Shareholder's letter also indicated that while total growth of orders was 45%, it was 160% for Asia. Doesn't this mean that if total deliveries stay the same due to temporary production constraints associated with the MX ramp up, the portion of cars delivered to Asia should grow at the expense of deliveries to Europe, and, possibly US?
From what I understood every region saw growth and Asia the most. But the sentence seems a bit awkwardly structured to me, maybe as a non-native speaker I am reading it wrong?
I agree that letter indicated growth in all regions (another non-native speaker weighs in
), including Europe and US, but growth in Asia was much stronger. My point is that if you assume that total deliveries in Q2 are capped due to manufacturing constraints at approximately the same level as Q1, the only way to increase allocation of cars to Asia is to reduce allocation of cars to Europe/US.I don't think that's it either since all EU orders in Q1 got delivered in Q2. In April you could still order a EU car with delivery this quarter and the European delivery threads today confirm the same thing : customers getting their cars now tend to have an order date begin April. So the production cap did not prevent Tesla from servicing all EU Q1 orders this quarter.
dc_h
Active Member
Production didn't seem to really hit stride until midpoint of Q2, so I suspect US deliveries will be focus of quarter. Q3 should see increase now with 2000+ per week production.
Production constraint on MS (being produced only on old BIW line) is still in effect, and will be into Q3. They are not going to blend MS to new BIW line until they achieve designated steady-state output of MX (whatever it is - 1000 or 1200 cars/week)
Europe:
2015 April-May 1908 (Q2 3904) June-2096
2016 April-May 1436 (Q2 ?) - would need about June-2500 to beat 2015
If Model X sales in the USA were in focus during Q2 2016, then Europe really isn't as much of a concern. Grand total should be right about 17,000. Initial numbers for June for Europe appear sluggish from Netherlands, Sweden and a few more. But primarily, the Model X and new fascia sales to the N. American market was the focus of Q2.
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