Ive been seeing a lot of analysis that the transition from ICE to Electric cars will take on a S-Curve shape, and 5% EV sales is the tipping point to join the S-Curve, but none of those graphs ever have any X axis... like how many years does the S curve take. Does it need consistent subsidies per country etc.
So I decided to pull a few country data in different markets with different EV stimulus's to see if there is any alignment of the S-curve, and what can we expect in Australia, since we ticked over 5% this year (now over 8%).
I chose these countries:
Norway - The leader which is already at 83%, and will show if there really is an S shape.
Iceland - The next biggest penetration of EV cars for new sales, although last year there was a slowing of growth.
France - A typical European country.
China - The big player in Asia.
and little old Australia.
Here it is. Each country has their own year they hit 5%, and so I have lined up that transition point to be the same year (year 10 as shown below).
Conclusions:
It really is an S curve.
Every country is following Norway's lead pretty accurately.
Norway is planning to stop selling ICE cars in 2025 (year 21 in this graph) which is 11 years after they had the 5% transition of sales.
This means that its very likely Australia will also stop selling ICE cars in 11 years which is 2034.
Policy variation between countries doesnt make much difference
So I decided to pull a few country data in different markets with different EV stimulus's to see if there is any alignment of the S-curve, and what can we expect in Australia, since we ticked over 5% this year (now over 8%).
I chose these countries:
Norway - The leader which is already at 83%, and will show if there really is an S shape.
Iceland - The next biggest penetration of EV cars for new sales, although last year there was a slowing of growth.
France - A typical European country.
China - The big player in Asia.
and little old Australia.
Here it is. Each country has their own year they hit 5%, and so I have lined up that transition point to be the same year (year 10 as shown below).
Conclusions:
It really is an S curve.
Every country is following Norway's lead pretty accurately.
Norway is planning to stop selling ICE cars in 2025 (year 21 in this graph) which is 11 years after they had the 5% transition of sales.
This means that its very likely Australia will also stop selling ICE cars in 11 years which is 2034.
Policy variation between countries doesnt make much difference