Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Coronavirus

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
That might be interesting. I keep wondering why the Covid-19 data is so skewed in favor of the 1 - 19 age group. If I wanted to go far, far out on on a limb I would ponder the effect of exercise. That monoclonal is an IL-6 receptor blocker while exercise leads to elevated IL-6. This appears contradictory but they may be related via receptor regulation.

Trying to understand cytokine action is really hard due to pluripotent actions that vary by organ but in general IL-6 increases BMR. In that context IL-6 blockage could be understood as an anti-stimulant, or colloquially to putting someone on ice.

Would you think exercise would help resist infection in the first place or reduce severity of the infection? I tend to exercise heavily at least 3 days a week and I have wondered in the past if I'd still be able to exercise during the infection or if I'd be too weak to do so (or maybe should defer exercise to let my body rest).

Seems like all the guidance is when to go get tested or go to the hospital. Nothing about diet and exercise if you aren't bad enough off to go to the hospital.
 
Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:

New York city is the epicenter.

-Yesterday the national guard arrived in Westchester at Lawrence and Hudson Valley to help us address some of the issues on site

-1229 cases today (20-22% ICU patients and virtually all of those are on ventilators)

-Split ventilators is a VERY complex procedure, not every patients and piece of equipment is suitable for this

-Both of our medical school partners took the opportunity to allow their 4th year medical students to graduate early. They are being given the option of doing some work here at the hospital. Of course, they are new doctors, and we are taking precautions to assign them duties that are appropriate.

-Gov. asked us to increase our ICU beds by 50%.

-I would not recommend wearing gloves when you’re out and about because it could give you a false sense of security. The best way to keep yourself protected is to wash your hands. Wash in, wash out.


Clinical work:

-Clinical trial for recovered patients to donate plasma back to patients who are sick.

-N95Mask is for aerosolizing procedures. Our supply is very tight. But we are making them available to anyone that has direct patient care.

-Our 3d printed face shields are now available to protect that N95 mask for reuse.

-Sterilizing N95 masks, work in progress.

-Make sure you do a fit check with your N95 mask


Testing:

-We continue to be challenged with the supply of swabs. So while our teams are working on alternative solutions we are moving towards stopping for other respiratory illnesses in the meantime (flu/RSV) because it uses up the swab kits that we need for COVID. Mostly because right now there aren’t many of these other viruses and this way we can do more COVID testing.
First, thanks for those updates and good luck to you all!
Second, I can not stop comparing large hospitals readiness with my local small dental practice. Our local dentist managed to secure enough masks and protective equipment for regular change for all 5 staff members to stay open for emergency patients (and I'm thankfull for that, I think she gets enough shaming for staying open already).
Large hospitals seem to just fail in PPE preparation regardless of vast resources they have and dedicated procurement teams and management. I guess as an irony the management will get additional bonuses and a raise while the dentist will lose a large part of her revenue this year.
 
Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine has a nice summary of the scientific analyses of the impact of weather conditions on transmission of coronavirus.

Their verdict (as of March 22) was:

"Although much of the data has not been peer-reviewed yet, emerging evidence appears to suggest that weather conditions may influence the transmission of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), with cold and dry conditions appearing to boost the spread. This phenomenon may manifest itself through two mechanisms: the stability of the virus and the effect of the weather on the host. The weather effect is minimal, and all estimates are subject to significant biases reinforcing the need for robust public health measures."

Do weather conditions influence the transmission of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)? - CEBM
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Todesbuckler
I don't agree with everything this guy says, but he makes some good points about South Korea vs. Italy and has some interesting charts I had not seen:

1*u7YJUCyLwSLtoW_O4YKOfg.png
 
Detailed and interesting dashboard on covid-19 tests in King County, WA.

COVID-19 data dashboard - King County

View attachment 526841

Interesting, only 39% of those tested (4794 of 12222) are male, yet the ratio of positive tests for males is much higher 17.7% vs 12.5% for females tested. Why are females being tested at a rate of 1.5X that of males? Perhaps they are more likely to seek testing?

If this skew exists in other countries data it may explain why the disease seems to be much worse in males. It may just be we are testing a lot more females and only more severe cases in males, which would skew the case fatality rates in males higher.
 
I don't agree with everything this guy says, but he makes some good points about South Korea vs. Italy and has some interesting charts I had not seen:

1*u7YJUCyLwSLtoW_O4YKOfg.png
In my mind this pretty much answers it all.

Populations skewed very young in SK.

Aggressive test and track shut down the spread.

Because of this health care system never overwhelmed and all patients received good care.

As opposed to:

Population VERY old in IT.

Rampant spread allowed without concern.

Health care system overload collapse and patients left to die at home.

That one should tracking at 1.5% death rate and the other at what 10%? is pretty much all explained without even looking at pollution and smoking issues.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bkp_duke
I don't agree with everything this guy says, but he makes some good points about South Korea vs. Italy and has some interesting charts I had not seen:

1*u7YJUCyLwSLtoW_O4YKOfg.png
This is just testing bias. South Korea tries to test everyone who is exposed by investigating each case. The Italy numbers are much closer to the age distribution of people who get severe symptoms. It is odd that the 20-29 numbers are so high. It's also terrifying since the vast majority of those are probably asymptomatic.
South Korea is a pretty old country too, 14.9% of people are over 65 (worldwide 9%, US 16%, Italy 23%).
 
I am going to go out on a limb here and speculate that this will be viewed as a very bad idea by the blood donation collection folks.

i disagree. They already test the blood for infectious diseases, so adding one more shouldn't be an issue. the only difference is timing. It normally takes a few days for them to screen the blood, so don't expect results anytime soon.
 
This is just testing bias. South Korea tries to test everyone who is exposed by investigating each case. The Italy numbers are much closer to the age distribution of people who get severe symptoms. It is odd that the 20-29 numbers are so high. It's also terrifying since the vast majority of those are probably asymptomatic.
South Korea is a pretty old country too, 14.9% of people are over 65 (worldwide 9%, US 16%, Italy 23%).

I would like to see that comparison graph between the US an South Korea. Both started out the same day in January with 1 confirmed case. A 3 month chart would tell a lot about competence of leaders in the countries.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Lessmog
Why are females being tested at a rate of 1.5X that of males? Perhaps they are more likely to seek testing?

This is an interesting question.

Some thoughts:

I'm a pretty lazy male so you'd basically have to ship me a test kit, and come pick it up for me to get tested. Unless it was REALLY getting bad or there was some important reason for me to get tested (to let people I work with know for example). For males we really need to factor in laziness in whatever testing solution is implemented. The drive through ones are a good start.

If I'm in charge of deciding who gets tested I'm probably going to unconsciously pick more women. The whole women, and children first mentality that was socialized into me. I don't think am I'll that different than most people regardless of gender.

I wouldn't be surprised if the difference wasn't even larger if more testing was available. Like a female friend of mine was sick with flu like symptoms a few weeks ago. I tried to convince her to get tested, but she kept saying things along the lines of "I don't have it bad, and other people have it worse so let them get tested", and lots of women are just like her. Where they're more caring about others than about their own health. I was worried about long term health ramifications that even people with mild cases might have so I didn't think it was a time for selflessness even though she was making a very rational decision.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DanCar
NPR article on Chinese "reinfections". I use quote marks because the article itself raises multiple theories for these test results in addition to actual reinfection. Other points and anecdotes:

- claim that 5-10% of recovered patients later test positive
- China doesn't count asymptomatic positives in their case count
- China's tests may have very high error rates (seems unlikely, but...)
- People there are very afraid to criticize government handling of coronavirus
 
This is sounding like Italy quarantining Lombardy.

Donald J. Trump on Twitter

I am giving consideration to a QUARANTINE of developing “hot spots”, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. A decision will be made, one way or another, shortly.​
"developing hot spots"? The entire country is developing hot spots at this point. If we actually had it under control anywhere this might make sense. It looks like Hawaii might have it under control...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sean Wagner