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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That's the line he's going with obviously, but we're not really doing much to contain this and limit total infection. UK and US infection rates are headed to massive numbers, real soon. He just got the mortality rate way wrong.
Dr. J
Active Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
We'll if so it's bad news good news. We're all getting it, but 20k deaths in the UK equates to about 70k here, which is likely pretty high too.
As mentioned, I think this eliminates the last presumed valid apocalypse scenario.
Quote:
Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing.
This is the same finding of the modeling done by the UK group. As long as there’s no vaccine or herd immunity, reversing restrictions results in sparks that start new fires that can again become outbreaks.
Has anyone run the numbers on how long we need to stay isolated to keep the curve lower than health care capacity? I guess we’d also need to estimate how effective our contact tracing can be at scale...
linux-works
Active Member
[megaphone] NOTICE: this is NOT from the onion. I repeat, this is NOT from the onion. [/megaphone]
ok, that out of the way:
Americans not welcome due to virus, say Mexicans
Mexican protesters have shut a US southern border crossing amid fears that untested American travellers will spread coronavirus.
so.... it seems mexico wants a wall, and they want the US to pay for it!
well, harumph.
ok, that out of the way:
Americans not welcome due to virus, say Mexicans
Mexican protesters have shut a US southern border crossing amid fears that untested American travellers will spread coronavirus.
so.... it seems mexico wants a wall, and they want the US to pay for it!
well, harumph.
The scary thing about that chart is that it shows the US is on an almost unstoppable path from 1,000+ to 10,000+ deaths in 7 days (trend line not bending) to 14 days (trend line bending like the Italian one).
The US trend line also is the steepest one of all countries so far. Does that say something about the health of the average American? Or the health system?
It says America has a lot more people than the other countries (save for China).
Reproduce this on a per capita scale and see if it changes your conclusions.
In looking for the report link I came across news that the original author was in front of Parliament yesterday revising his 500k death prediction for the UK down to "20k or perhaps much lower". I don't know what New Scientist is, but here's the link to the coverage.
Of course they're now characterizing his original thesis as a "worst case scenario" if the UK and US did absolutely nothing.
Again, this is the kind of thing global institutional investors are latching onto as rationale to jump back into the markets. Even though we're about to go through hell in the US.
but isn't that change a result of their decision to shelter-in-place? 20k deaths for self-quarantining an island sounds like a confluence of beneficial factors. something that can't be extrapolated elsewhere. Also notice that Dr. Ferguson changed his estimates from 500k down to 20k based on the likelihood that there will be enough ICU beds.
i still would like to see the study, but the difference between two estimates from the same person really is an eye opener.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Marc Lipsitch is one of the most prominent epidemiologists in US.
Good news is the Covid task force asked Marc's team to model certain scenarios.
Bad news is that the administration decided to ignore what the model predicted. Instead Dr Birx (who is not an epidemiologist) decided to go with what Trump wanted to hear, apparently, that it is ok to end the lockdown quickly and everything will be ok.
actually, i'm with the 3rd option. Around Jan, i got deathly ill with the flu, and i was truly worried about it being C-19, but only had aches and chills. no fever, coughing, nor respitory issues. discussed it with others who said that there was a particularly nasty flu bug going around this year that the vaccine did NOT cover. so it's very likely that people with these suspected c-19 symptoms are just infected with an entirely different bug. anecdotal, i know, but it's there.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'll admit I don't get all the fixation about IFR and CFR estimates around here, but I do like to look at data. So I'll lean back in my comfy armchair and post at chart.
I do really like that this chart is in units of deaths per million inhabitants (DPM). It might just give us some perspective on what a 0.1% IFR might look like.
Notice that Italy continues to lead the world on deaths per capita. Italy is currently at 136 DPM, ant it is still climbing. Eyeballing it, it looks to me that ultimate deaths could 200 to 500 DPM.
How does this line up with the IFR estimate from Iceland? Well, at the low end 0.05% IFR gives you 500 DPM if the the whole population is infected. So keeping deaths below 500 DPM while IFR is as small as 0.05% would suggest limiting the infection rate is pretty important.
I'm not so much making a scientific point here, but asking more of a humanities question. What would it really mean for Italy to watch their death rate climb to 500 DPM or 0.05% of population? Italy has a population of about 60M. 136DPM is already 8200 deaths, but imagine going to 30,000. Now if at the upper end is a IFR of 0.14%, this would expose the possibility of Italy facing nearly 84,000 deaths at 100% infection. No doubt we are talking about a devastating scale of societal trauma. I see no comfort in an IFR as low as this. It is still devastating at pretty much any infection rate. We can appreciate why shutting down the economy is necessary to minimize infection. Ultimately infection rate will likely land in range of 40% to 80%. Maybe that's inevitable, but it can be stretched out over the next 18 months. Slowing down the infection rate is the only way to normalize this. It would at least give the people time to bury their dead
Norbert
TSLA will win
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Ok, first you read up Marc Lipsitch thread posted above.
Thread by @mlipsitch: Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (…
Now, how many people do you think will have contracted covid-19 and survived by next wave ? Either its a lot (like > 50%) or small (< 5%). If its > 50%, we have had a hell of a first wave, big and long and very painful. Basically "herd immunity". If its small - they can't run the factory with 5% people. In between … we've still had a really bad first wave - and we don't have herd immunity.
You are at this point arguing that Trump is correct and epidemiologists are wrong.
Thread by @mlipsitch: Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (…
Now, how many people do you think will have contracted covid-19 and survived by next wave ? Either its a lot (like > 50%) or small (< 5%). If its > 50%, we have had a hell of a first wave, big and long and very painful. Basically "herd immunity". If its small - they can't run the factory with 5% people. In between … we've still had a really bad first wave - and we don't have herd immunity.
You are at this point arguing that Trump is correct and epidemiologists are wrong.
Harrowing account from a Brooklyn hospital in the NYT. It's a long read, but gave what seems to be a fair picture of what life is like right now in an ER department struggling with an influx of COVID-19 patients.
‘We’re in Disaster Mode’: Courage Inside a Brooklyn Hospital Confronting Coronavirus
The author chose to end on an inspirational note:
‘We’re in Disaster Mode’: Courage Inside a Brooklyn Hospital Confronting Coronavirus
The author chose to end on an inspirational note:
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Dang it's actually Iowa with 3.1 million and 180 cases. I guess I don't know my states as well as I thought.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Her 19 included Kentucky, which has 4.5m and was below 200 prior to the briefing. I think you're right that Kansas has the largest population of the remaining 17 (oops, Iowa).
Patient zero boarded the Diamond Princess on January 20. They quarantined passengers on February 5. With a 6 day doubling rate you'd expect ~7 infected people by 2/5. The actual number was 712. Since 712 > 7 it seems clear the ship's close quarters accelerated transmission. Actual doubling rate was less than 2 days.
46.5% of Diamond Princess positives reported no symptoms when tested. This stat always includes some who had mild symptoms which already passed (e.g. 1 deg F fever for a day). Some of the 46.5% developed symptoms after testing positive (I've seen this number but it's not in the CDC report).
The same is true of the 3300 citizens of Vo, Italy who were all tested. More than half of the 88 (2.65%) who tested positive had no symptoms on the day of the test. In an illness which doubles every 6 days and takes 6 days to show symptoms, blanket testing will show 50%+ without symptoms purely due to timing. This is true even if 100% of infections eventually produce symptoms.
The low IFR crowd also loves to quote Iceland. Genetics company deCode tested any asymptomatic person who signed up and got a 0.86% hit rate. This rate projected over Iceland's adult population would be 2100 positives. As of that date Iceland had only found ~600 positives by testing people with symptoms, known travel, etc. Aha! Ironclad evidence of massive asymptomatic spread!
Or not. deCode's test group was self-selected, not random. These people had a reason to get tested. Actual undetected infections in Iceland was probably closer to 1000 on that date. And many were presymptomatic vs. asymptomatic. They'd have been found later by the health depart once they developed symptoms.
Hopefully we'll get San Miguel county's numbers soon. If 50% show antibodies we'll all owe @TheTalkingMule a big apology....
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
This is false. The 500k number is the worst case number. Here is the paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) Here is his correction of the incorrect reporting. P.S. Where is that SARS number you promised?In looking for the report link I came across news that the original author was in front of Parliament yesterday revising his 500k death prediction for the UK down to "20k or perhaps much lower". I don't know what New Scientist is, but here's the link to the coverage.
Of course they're now characterizing his original thesis as a "worst case scenario" if the UK and US did absolutely nothing.
Again, this is the kind of thing global institutional investors are latching onto as rationale to jump back into the markets. Even though we're about to go through hell in the US.
If the Chinese aren't lying and they have no new reported cases, then they might have stopped it. But the Chinese aren't not known for always being factual. Locals leaders are also known to lie. If in reality they are still having new cases spring up, then they probably have asymptomatic cases walking around.
It all depends on how accurate China's reports are
It should have, but starting now is better than next month. The longer we wait the worse it gets.
There is a unique symptom of COVID-19 that some people have reported. They lose their sense of smell and often taste just before coming down with it. They are not stuffed up or anything that would normally cause a loss of sense of smell. That happened to me mid-February for no reason. I normally have an unusually good sense of smell and I could just barely smell many things I knew smell strongly. The weird asthma-like symptoms started right about that time too. My sense of smell came back, but I don't remember when, probably only a few days.
The point of the antibody test is to help uncover hidden infections... and as a secondary benefit uncover heard immunity.
So if Tesla can get sufficient copies of the antibody test and/or arrange testing with a suitable clinic an example process is as follows:-
- Test all workers for antibodies 5 days before scheduled return to work and take temps..
- test and take temps again 1 day before return.
- Take temps before each shift
- Implement lots of safety protocols and equipment.
- Additional random or regular antibody tests..
- Anyone with a temp stay at home and has an antibody test after recovery and before return to work
- Anyone who returns a positive antibody tests then goes through regular testing and is followed up by health authorities.
Whether or not authorities would agree to let Tesla reopen the factory with all those controls is anyone's guess.
But IMO the 1.-5. step process I outlined above will catch 99.99% of unknown infections, if the body is doing a job job of fighting the virus it must be making antibodies.
Known infections are no problem, and known herd immunity is no problem..
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