Autonomous Car Progress

[diplomat33]

I don't count Tesla as.a player as of today. No one will do business with Elon, tbh, unless they can prove it works beforehand.

Yes, that is why I said that no OEM will license current FSD because liability is too high. OEMs need assurances of safety. They are not going to license a vision-only system just on Elon's word that it is safer than humans.

 

[Bladerskb]

NHTSA has initiated an investigation into Ford's BlueCruise.

NHTSA opens investigation into Ford’s BlueCruise after software linked to fatal crash

Like Tesla, Ford’s BlueCruise is now also under investigation.

www.theverge.com

(moderator edit)

Show you how fanaticism completely warps someone’s view of reality.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787615452296077715

 

[diplomat33]

Motional delays the launch of a commercial driverless service to 2026 amid restructuring and layoffs:

Motional delays commercial robotaxi plans amid restructuring | TechCrunch

Motional, the autonomous vehicle startup borne out of a $4 billion joint venture between Hyundai and automotive supplier Aptiv, will pause its commercial

techcrunch.com

 

[diplomat33]

Currently, cameras are not sufficient for L3, and it is very likely that regulation will require lidars. Sometime in the future, it is reasonable to assume that cameras and radars will be sufficient.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787881747184488768

 

[willow_hiller]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787881747184488768

I wonder why he thinks that cameras and radar will be sufficient in the future if they're not now. Is he expecting an improvement in the software to process camera inputs, an improvement in the quality of radar hardware, or some sort of improvement in sensor fusion?

That would also be a massive-blow to innovation if regulators require a certain piece of hardware.

 

[spacecoin]

I wonder why he thinks that cameras and radar will be sufficient in the future if they're not now. Is he expecting an improvement in the software to process camera inputs, an improvement in the quality of radar hardware, or some sort of improvement in sensor fusion?

That would also be a massive-blow to innovation if regulators require a certain piece of hardware.

Progress in computer vision basically and sensor tech in general.

I personally think it will be a while, if ever. Too many weird failure modes (an image of a road on a truck etc). I think Lidar will drop in price faster than there is progress in computer vision, now that more OEM:s (esp in China) have them in their models.

The Safety Truck Could Revolutionize Road Safety

Have you ever found yourself driving behind a semi-trailer truck? If you’re on a single-lane highway or road, it can be a nightmare. Even though the

news.samsung.com

 

[diplomat33]

I wonder why he thinks that cameras and radar will be sufficient in the future if they're not now. Is he expecting an improvement in the software to process camera inputs, an improvement in the quality of radar hardware, or some sort of improvement in sensor fusion?

Yes, I think he is assuming that there will be improvements to the software both for camera vision and radar that will make camera+radar perception good enough to support L3+ autonomous driving. And it is a logical assumption because computer software is improving all the time. We have already seen massive improvements in computer vision and radar in recent years. Years ago, computer vision could only do basic object detection and required stereo vision to do any type of distance measurements. Now a single camera can extract all the information needed for driving (occupancy networks, road geometry, lanes, road signs, hand gestures, traffic lights, curbs, crosswalks, pedestrians, cyclists, vehicles, trucks, etc...) as well as do distance and velocity measurements with decent accuracy. Likewise, we have seen huge improvements in radar. Radar used to be very low resolution. It could be used for basic cruise control to maintain a safe distance from a lead car but that was about it. And low res radar cannot detect static objects so it can cause collisions with stopped vehicles on the road. But now, we have imaging radar that is very high resolution and can accurately measure position and velocity of both stopped and moving objects, and separate between objects close to each other, like distinguishing a pedestrian standing next to a stop sign. It stands to reason that with camera vision that can do all perception on its own and high res radar that can accurately detect and measure position and velocity of static and moving objects in great detail, that with further improvements to reliability, camera + radar will be sufficient for L3+.

That would also be a massive-blow to innovation if regulators require a certain piece of hardware.

Yeah, I don't think that regulators should mandate a certain tech. Regulations should be tech agnostic. They should set safety standards and let manufacturers use whatever tech they want if they can achieve those safety standards.

 

[mongo]

But now, we have imaging radar that is very high resolution and can accurately measure position and velocity of both stopped and moving objects, and separate between objects close to each other, like distinguishing a pedestrian standing next to a stop sign.

In a vehicle friendly form factor with limited collection time/ distance along direction of travel?

 

[diplomat33]

In a vehicle friendly form factor with limited collection time/ distance along direction of travel?

Yes, I think so. See the Mobileye imaging radar that fits nicely in the ID.Buzz AV.

 

[Dewg]

I'm Vegas this weekend. Seeing lots of Zoox running with safety drivers around Park MGM

 

[EVNow]

Talking of Zoox ….

US agency probes Amazon-owned Zoox robotaxis after two crashes — Reuters

The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said Monday it has opened an investigation into Amazon.com's (AMZN.O) self-driving Zoox vehicles due to unexpected braking leading to two rear-end collisions that injured motorcyclists.

stocks.apple.com

 

[DanCar]

A bit boring: Polestar 4 negotiating a left turn.

 

[diplomat33]

A bit boring: Polestar 4 negotiating a left turn.

You forgot to mention the ADAS system is Mobileye's SuperVision.

 

[Doggydogworld]

A bit boring: Polestar 4 negotiating a left turn.

Who even has the right of way at that intersection?

 

[DanCar]

You forgot to mention the ADAS system is Mobileye's SuperVision.

I didn't forget since I had no intention of calling it out.

 

[diplomat33]

I didn't forget since I had no intention of calling it out.

Why not? I find it odd that you would want to hide that bit of information. We always refer to other ADAS systems, rather than the car model itself.

 

[DanCar]

Why not? I find it odd that you would want to hide that bit of information.

Hidden? It is in the title of the video in plane site.
> We always refer to other ADAS systems, rather than the car model itself.
Haha, trying to invent rules.

 

[diplomat33]

25 States in the US now have laws that support AVs:

State policymakers are seizing the opportunity of AVs and continue to support regulatory frameworks that promote safety and innovation. In April, Kentucky became the twenty-fifth state in our union to have an AV deployment statute. It is a milestone worth celebrating that the United States now welcomes autonomous vehicles in one half of its states, with others possibly joining soon. That is 193 million Americans, representing 56% of the population.

AV statutes generally take action in several key areas. The laws authorize autonomous vehicles - commonly referred to as Level 4 or 5 Autonomous Driving System (ADS) – to travel on the roads of the state. They also contain several safety enhancing elements, such as a requirement that for an AV to be lawfully on the road the vehicle must be able to achieve what is called a “minimum risk condition,” a technology feature that allows the vehicle to safely take itself out of commission in the event of a problem. In addition, state AV statutes appropriately specify that an AV must be capable of complying with all applicable traffic and motor vehicle safety laws of the state. The laws require that proof of financial responsibility for the AV must be submitted to the appropriate state agency and that the vehicle must be properly registered and titled in the state.

A Milestone to Celebrate: 25 States Have Autonomous Vehicle Laws

A policy trend has emerged that is bringing red and blue states together–ones as politically different as California and Texas and Florida and Colorado. Across the U.S., state legislatures and g

www.realclearpolicy.com

That last paragraph is key. The laws require the AV to be able to achieve a minimum risk condition. So Tesla will need to add that feature to FSD before they can think of removing driver supervision.

 

[flutas]

Interesting crash report, and a great example of tiny things, from Zoox. [0]

A Zoox vehicle in autonomy, traveling westbound on 3rd Avenue toward Foster City Blvd in Foster City drove over an in-lane utility valve box with a displaced valve cover. The Zoox vehicle sustained damage to the undercarriage. There were no reported injuries and police were not called.

 

[Bitdepth]

Interesting crash report, and a great example of tiny things, from Zoox. [0]

We discussed that earlier. It is not so tiny; it can cause catastrophic accidents. Manhole covers are prevalent in every major city with underground utility infrastructure.