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"I think if you consider the combination of Model S sales, of our powertrain sales, our development revenue and mid-teens gross margin, I think the guidance would probably lead you to somewhere along those lines close to something in the break-even range to slightly positive. It should be close to break-even, and we were hoping to beat that."
Now, TSLA ended the quarter with $268 million in inventory. That's a lot. That's almost 8 weeks worth of Model S inventory which doesn't make sense. Given that TSLA had issues with the holidays and delivering vehicles that were likely completely expensed, that's probably 100 vehicles which is $10 million dollars in additional revenue above and beyond the normal overhang of parts/materials in and cars out. That still leaves a lot of inventory. I presume power trains include the battery, so maybe TSLA bought a lot of Panasonic batteries in order to qualify for the next pricing tiers? Given the order level, that would seem to make financial sense if they have the cash. Again, a significant delivery of power train sales would help explain the inventory level and the revenue shortfall given the guidance and the expected Model S sales.
I find it really hard to believe with all the insight they have (being this far into the quarter) that they could be so confident they are going to be profitable and be wrong. Furthermore, I find it even harder to believe that some outsider, by taking educated guesses on a few metrics has "proven" that they can't.
This is a very good thread. Just a note to nikwest: I thought the $/Y would help, too, but found that this is not so. From Paragraph 8(a) Payment terms in the redacted Tesla/Panasonic agreement: "Payment by Tesla for Items shall be in United States Dollars..." Any ForEx upside goes to Panasonic.