New girlfriend asks me why I spend so much money into TSLA .... hmmm
Maybe I should ease up ?
Maybe I should ease up ?
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Space-X is in fact so incompetent, they will probably be a couple of years late again just even beginning a Mars Colony
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dc_h
Active Member
I think he is talking about some battery processing. Sounds like they have developed more energy efficient production processes. Reminded me of Roman cement vs modern cement, much less energy intensive coking process and better.TC lost me with "Gravity"
bdy0627
Active Member
Just checked in on the Model 3 threads. Sounds like a chaotic mess going on right now. There appear to be lots of changed delivery times and locations, VIN changes, delayed deliveries (even by just a few days), paperwork issues, surface damage issues like scratches, and just general confusion. What a mess! Hopefully, Tesla gets it smoothed out soon. I'm sure they will, but I personally would not want to be taking delivery of a Model 3 right now. Of course, I've got an S so I'm not even looking in that direction right now. I'm sure too that it's all blown up via the forums. Crossing my fingers that everything starts to go well soon!
Indeed. We have known for nearly two months about the Model 3 production bottleneck and an expected three-month delay in meeting production targets. It looked like merely a CYA announcement today by the analysts just a week before the actual delivery count for the quarter is revealed. Competent financial reporters would have called them to task for this. I sure would have. Instead they needed some click-bait headlines and interviews during a slow week between the holidays and gave a free pass to ignorance. Shorts who took the bait may soon regret it.
The trick to obtaining high margins with the moderately priced Model 3 is a highly efficient production process. High reliability is in turn needed to keep up the demand. Early in the process some tinkering has apparently been required for smoothing out the process while maintaining quality. A few months delay in getting up to speed should not noticeably affect the prospects for the company and its stock valuation. Many analysts and financial reporters are not trained to understand this. Hence the nonsense we saw spread across the media today. Long-term shareholders will smile and remain patient.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I don't think I'd ever want to take delivery of a Tesla near the end of a quarter, especially the 4th quarter.
Best thing about all of this, and the recent analyst downgrades and all the general negativity is something that absolutely no one is talking about...
Reservations!
Tesla had approximately $650 million in reservations at the end of last quarter. I suspect that Model S / X/ 3 reservation total will remain roughly the same by the end of Q4.
Roadster (Sig) cost $250,000 to reserve and limited to 1,000. Roadster (Reg) cost $50,000 to reserve and had no limit.
Semi (Sig) cost $200,000 to reserve and limited to 1,000. Semi (Reg) cost $5,000 or $20,000 to reserve, depending on how quick you were to pull the trigger.
Basing calculations off of Model X Reservations...which totaled around 30,000 or so at the peak...
There is no reason to suspect otherwise, given the performance of the car / the increased worldwide awareness of Tesla / the "rich liberal cult members" as the shorts like to say, that Tesla is approaching the 1,000 Sig Roadster reservation limit. That is an approximate $250 million cash boost on the balance sheet.
If Reg Roadster reservations are approximately 75% of the Model X Reservations at its peak...again, for the reasons I stated above, that would be an additional $1.1 billion cash boost on the balance sheet.
Lets assume a VERY low take on Sig Semis, perhaps only 100 worldwide, thats an additional $20 million cash boost on the balance.
Lets assume an equally low take on Reg Semi reservations, even though we've seen publicized orders of about 500...and rumors of some folks having placed EXTREMELY large reservations at the initial $5,000 price....lets say they've collected $25 million on those...
You could see reservations pop from $650 million to $2.05 billion in 1 quarter.
CAN'T WAIT to see $2 BILLION in reservations be explained away...
Reservations!
Tesla had approximately $650 million in reservations at the end of last quarter. I suspect that Model S / X/ 3 reservation total will remain roughly the same by the end of Q4.
Roadster (Sig) cost $250,000 to reserve and limited to 1,000. Roadster (Reg) cost $50,000 to reserve and had no limit.
Semi (Sig) cost $200,000 to reserve and limited to 1,000. Semi (Reg) cost $5,000 or $20,000 to reserve, depending on how quick you were to pull the trigger.
Basing calculations off of Model X Reservations...which totaled around 30,000 or so at the peak...
There is no reason to suspect otherwise, given the performance of the car / the increased worldwide awareness of Tesla / the "rich liberal cult members" as the shorts like to say, that Tesla is approaching the 1,000 Sig Roadster reservation limit. That is an approximate $250 million cash boost on the balance sheet.
If Reg Roadster reservations are approximately 75% of the Model X Reservations at its peak...again, for the reasons I stated above, that would be an additional $1.1 billion cash boost on the balance sheet.
Lets assume a VERY low take on Sig Semis, perhaps only 100 worldwide, thats an additional $20 million cash boost on the balance.
Lets assume an equally low take on Reg Semi reservations, even though we've seen publicized orders of about 500...and rumors of some folks having placed EXTREMELY large reservations at the initial $5,000 price....lets say they've collected $25 million on those...
You could see reservations pop from $650 million to $2.05 billion in 1 quarter.
CAN'T WAIT to see $2 BILLION in reservations be explained away...
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Hmm. Just took delivery of my Model 3 on 12/24. Configured 12/9, VIN assigned 12/22. Delivery at the Fremont Delivery Center started a little late, but everything else was perfect. I was very impressed by the whole process, and the fit and finish was great. There was nothing to put on the due bill. The whole walk-through and paperwork process took two hours; I never felt rushed. It was quite a contrast to the fast overview outside the factory showroom I got back in 2014 for my S (also in the busy time at the end of a quarter).
As an investor I was very positively impressed. Of course I may have been influenced by the Ludicrous Latte I ordered from the barista -- it was a caffeine monster with four shots of espresso!
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Nonsense. Looking at EV-cpo.com there are currently 21 inventory Model S vehicles available. I just bought one yesterday, to be delivered in the next couple of days.
I see three Model X as well.
dc_h
Active Member
Interesting, I was looking here. Inventory was over 100 a couple of weeks ago.
Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car
Question for everyone is, is the price of the stock already accounting for a bigger loss per share than "consensus estimates" and a miss on total revenue...
This entire situation just reminds me of January 2016 all over again. Everything is in flux, expectations too high, too many buyers who bought in and made money have yet to see their gains disappear...its all pointing to a downside move in this stock.
If you are a long term holder, none of this matters. But this bloodbath is not going to end anytime soon, in reality, it has yet to begin. Its unfortunate.
This company gets beat on endlessly and at times, there is more of "them" than "us". And it seems like this is one of those times.
It would be nice to wake up one morning and find out Google or Microsoft or a Chinese company has been buying up the float...but we just aren't going to rescued.
We are going to be served our gloom and doom over the next 2 months, unless reservations and the ramp up surprise to the upside. So get ready...
Going to be a lot of doom spread around...get ready...
This entire situation just reminds me of January 2016 all over again. Everything is in flux, expectations too high, too many buyers who bought in and made money have yet to see their gains disappear...its all pointing to a downside move in this stock.
If you are a long term holder, none of this matters. But this bloodbath is not going to end anytime soon, in reality, it has yet to begin. Its unfortunate.
This company gets beat on endlessly and at times, there is more of "them" than "us". And it seems like this is one of those times.
It would be nice to wake up one morning and find out Google or Microsoft or a Chinese company has been buying up the float...but we just aren't going to rescued.
We are going to be served our gloom and doom over the next 2 months, unless reservations and the ramp up surprise to the upside. So get ready...
Going to be a lot of doom spread around...get ready...
#Callingit
For next week's delivery report on Model 3:
Produced about 3k, delivered about 2k, production rate <1000/week but they will disuse it with "burst rate". And here goes their explanation of the numbers:
Production was heavily skewed towards the end of December when burst production rate reached about 1000/week. However, many customers were not able to take delivery due to holiday travels, resulting in many cars not delivered.
Guidance will still be rosy as always, but market will discredit it after a 2nd serious miss on target.
For next week's delivery report on Model 3:
Produced about 3k, delivered about 2k, production rate <1000/week but they will disuse it with "burst rate". And here goes their explanation of the numbers:
Production was heavily skewed towards the end of December when burst production rate reached about 1000/week. However, many customers were not able to take delivery due to holiday travels, resulting in many cars not delivered.
Guidance will still be rosy as always, but market will discredit it after a 2nd serious miss on target.
I agree.
Market will not tolerate another miss.
Long term, this stock is a buy. Short term, it's going nothing going for it. Expectations are too high.
The "burst rate" explanation will burn a hole in this stock and it'll end up causing them to "restate" the release at the end of the week, explaining that the situation isn't as bad as it was made to be.
I HOPE they know the shorts are on the offensive and they better have a better explanation than they normally would for everything that is happening.
I'm thinking more along the lines of 1000 delivered, 1700 total produced, approaching 1000 a week at "burst".
Going to be ugly
I'll never sell my holdings but I'm expecting a big hair cut. And its even worse when the Nasdaq has had a +15% run during this -5% run for Tesla over the past 6 months.
UGH. The life of a Tesla long is tough.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I’ve been monitoring the Model 3 threads quite regularly for the past 10 days and would not describe the situation as you have at all.
They appear to be maximizing the number of deliveries for the quarter with what they’ve produced. Hence vague communication and switching of VINs as Tesla is putting maximizing deliveries ahead of transparency with the customer.
I suppose from a customer point of view it could feel like a mess, from an investor point of view, they are organizing for the most favorable announcement next week possible given the reality of the number of 3s produced. There execution on this is not perfect, but it is far from a mess. I think most of what you described as a mess is like making plans/dates with someone whose only thinking about their needs and not yours- vagueness, switching arrangements (including which delivery center to send which vehicles and when), and cancelling, as they constantly look to see if there’s a better option around the corner.
As far as issues like scratches, I’ve seen that at least once (today actually), but, on balance it’s been by far the opposite for the past week plus I’ve monitored... plenty of compliments on fit and finish, and rare comments re issues of any damage/flaws.
Spreading the holiday cheer I see
Yeah I know...holding this stock for 7 years or whatever it has been hasn't been easy...and lately it's been more ridiculous than ever before.
Hard to type "Tesla" into google without being lured into reading something that is completely false. It gets old. And analysts are expecting things that are just absolutely insane. Who knows where they got these high expectations from...clearly they aren't reading these forums.
Love the company, hate reading what people think about it, but yet...I want to read about the company lol. No offense to Electrek, but the articles are far and few between on things that are actually relevant to Tesla. I'm just not interested in hearing about another concept car from some company that won't put a product out in its lifetime. Tired of articles about software updates...that stuff isn't critical at this point in time.
This company needs better news coverage.
Drumheller
Active Member
I've been watching You You Xue's progress on his Model 3 trip around the USA and he's already experienced several issues with the Model 3. Tesla is watching his updates, too, and has called him a few times. They also sent out a ranger to meet him on the road in Florida earlier today to fix an issue. I hope Tesla is quick about updating the line with the feedback they are receiving.
He mentioned the thunk sound with the wipers, like they're hitting something. If you look at my Model S, the paint is worn off the top edge of the hood where the windshield wipers rub when they slide down into place. It's little things like this that they need to get right with the Model 3. Despite the S and X being expensive vehicles, many owners were patience with the issues because we are fans of what Tesla is doing. The Model 3 being mainstream is going to get a lot of owners with less patience for these issues, in my opinion.
He mentioned the thunk sound with the wipers, like they're hitting something. If you look at my Model S, the paint is worn off the top edge of the hood where the windshield wipers rub when they slide down into place. It's little things like this that they need to get right with the Model 3. Despite the S and X being expensive vehicles, many owners were patience with the issues because we are fans of what Tesla is doing. The Model 3 being mainstream is going to get a lot of owners with less patience for these issues, in my opinion.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yes and no. Following this company for over 10 years, and the EV movement in general, maximum FUD is just par for the course. I'm used to it by now, and when it gets really ridiculous and pushes the stock price down I try to use it as a buying opportunity.
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