Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Southpasfan]

Are there many folks here who simply don't care about FSD updates/improvements until it actually becomes completely unsupervised? Just wake me up when it's fully launched, fully supported and I can sleep in the back for a long at least 30min - hour+ drive before I even care.

I agree that sleep in the back for LONGER drives is a nice to have, but I go back to the cost of whether the uptake will be that high depending on price. $299/month (random $$ posted here often) is way too high for me to pay for that. I'm talking about the common person rather than the Tesla fan/bull with a larger amount of disposal income. Maybe it'll be per miles or as low as $99/month, but I wouldn't even pay that to go to LA nor say, LV for that 1 trip. Guess I'm too cheap. Maybe folks who have to commute a decent distance would sign up though.

There's talk of even lower cost to increase uptake, but I have high doubts it will be that cheap if this is solved. I don't think cars will go away anytime soon for most of the US (outside of cities that folks may not even have cars now) even with this. I suppose people would still need to 'own' a Tesla after this is live/launched.

I think those who are on to sleep is a misunderstanding of the whole system.

Its now at a point where it is more relaxing to drive with FSD than without it. Makes a huge difference on longer trips. If I had an hour commute it would make all the difference in the world in terms of stress.

That's the main use case, for me.

 

[durkie]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790627471844622435

Beta label is back for 12.4.

Hmm this to me reads like a beta release of 12.4 specifically, like just the build of 12.4 that's released to a small group of testers to double check things before 12.4 is available to everyone (and not called "beta" but still called "FSD supervised")

 

[Christine69420]

Elon won't leave if the shareholders vote down the comp package. Tesla is Elon's baby.

IANAA/IANAL but there are many other ways to compensate Elon for the work he has done and is doing:

• A new comp package can be made after Tesla get out of Delaware
• Or perhaps then the killing of the original 2018 comp pack can be undone
• Or Elon can get a fat salary plus some smaller comp package. Then he can DCA into TSLA like I did
• Or Tesla could issue another class of shares with more voting power but less in $$$ value
• Or any other kind of plan/package people more brainy than me can think of

AFAIK the original plan of Elon was to use Tesla/TSLA to finance his ambition of a settlement on Mars. But SpaceX with Starlink and with it's superior space shuttle service to the ISS and later to the moon - SpaceX might be able to fund this by themselves.
Then sufficient voting power over Optimus/AI-policies could be more important for Elon than TSLA share value.

PS! Even if we vote in favour of the com package now the Delaware judge may still kill it. So there are no guarantees in both directions

PS #2! Regardless - voting no to Elon's comp package now is a really shitty thing to do

 

[ShareLofty]

If you think my concern has been with Elon's leaving, you should reread my posts. My concern has always been what'd happen IF he left.

If the compensation vote fails, doesn’t Elon have no choice but to stick around to manage development of Optimus and other AI at Tesla? He’s at 18% ownership and won’t be close to the 25% voting power he wants. His only choice to control Tesla AI is to stay CEO

 

[Electroman]

Elon won't leave if the shareholders vote down the comp package. Tesla is Elon's baby.

IANAA/IANAL but there are many other ways to compensate Elon for the work he has done and is doing:

• A new comp package can be made after Tesla get out of Delaware
• Or perhaps then the killing of the original 2018 comp pack can be undone
• Or Elon can get a fat salary plus some smaller comp package. Then he can DCA into TSLA like I did
• Or Tesla could issue another class of shares with more voting power but less in $$$ value
• Or any other kind of plan/package people more brainy than me can think of

AFAIK the original plan of Elon was to use Tesla/TSLA to finance his ambition of a settlement on Mars. But SpaceX with Starlink and with it's superior space shuttle service to the ISS and later to the moon - SpaceX might be able to fund this by themselves.
Then sufficient voting power over Optimus/AI-policies could be more important for Elon than TSLA share value.

PS! Even if we vote in favour of the com package now the Delaware judge may still kill it. So there are no guarantees in both directions

PS #2! Regardless - voting no to Elon's comp package now is a real ashpole thing to do

Yes, Elon won't quit.

But if he does because of these kind of judiciary shenanigans, I won't fault him. I empathize with him. But I won't be a shareholder for sure anymore. You can fight the media, you can fight FUD, you can fight the Govt, you can fight unions. But no one can fight malicious judiciary. Not even Musk. The powers that have been vested in Courts and Judges put them above God.

 

[Usain]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790627471844622435

Beta label is back for 12.4.

I don't think he's referring to the "beta" label. It appears he's using the term colloquially to just refer to the manner of testing in a limited release.

 

[Knightshade]

When the car becomes autonomous, insurance companies will start dictating the take rate.

IIRC another user already partly debunked this with the rare incidents cost more thing-- but there's a slew of other reasons it's neither a given, nor something that'd happen fast-- insurance companies don't change their entire underwriting scheme based on "Elon said so" they will want years of detailed data for that.

Apart from that, overall crash rates would go down for everyone if RTs are safer, so manually driven cars won't be more expensive, just RTs would be cheaper.

But almost certainly not cheaper enough to pay for the FSD subscription (esp. if that subscription goes up once it's >L2)

Tesla also made the system to be highly compatible(vs competitor's),

They absolutely did not.

You can tell because it's not even compatible with Cybertruck 6 months after launch... (not even basic AP, let alone FSD),

So integrating it into other OEMs cars would be a years long endeavor--- and Tesla told you this on the Q1 call too.

 

[mongo]

If the compensation vote fails, doesn’t Elon have no choice but to stick around to manage development of Optimus and other AI at Tesla? He’s at 18% ownership and won’t be close to the 25% voting power he wants. His only choice to control Tesla AI is to stay CEO

Elon is at 14.3% once the 2018 is backed out.
411,062,076÷(3,184,519,865 −303,960,630)

22.5% with it before sales for basis and taxes.
715,022,706÷(3,184,519,865)
SC 13G/A

 

[sunwarriors]

I think those who are on to sleep is a misunderstanding of the whole system.

Its now at a point where it is more relaxing to drive with FSD than without it. Makes a huge difference on longer trips. If I had an hour commute it would make all the difference in the world in terms of stress.

That's the main use case, for me.

I watch the Batteries Included podcast weekly and from what I've seen there, the highway driving of those other systems (Supercruise, Bluecruise, MB, BMW) for those types of LONG drives are very similar to what FSD on highway offers for most of these "required the person watching" systems.

Not talking about that last mile to get to your location on side streets, but for the boring aspects of that long straight freeway drive when driver fatigue actually sets in. They seem to all do similar things, at least from what I've seen on it so far.

Even Kyle says he doesn't use FSD and was surprised how great the Bluecruise was in a vid a while back.

Ford’s BlueCruise Remains CR’s Top-Rated Active Driving Assistance System - Consumer Reports

Consumer Reports reviews and ranks active driving assistance systems, including Ford BlueCruise, General Motors Super Cruise, and Tesla Autopilot.

www.consumerreports.org

Of course, no denying FSD can get you to your final destination, but are folks willing to pay much more that last mile that other highway assistance offers (where the boring parts of driving is)?

Have you (or anyone here) tried any of those other systems for those long drives?

 

[DarkandStormy]

Don't know if this should go in the Technical Analysis thread (.../s) but here is how TSLA has performed the last few summers after Memorial Day:

-2020: $56 to $140 (by early Sept)
-2021: $195 to $240
-2022: $257 to $299
-2023: $200 to $245

Make of it what you will.

 

[Singuy]

IIRC another user already partly debunked this with the rare incidents cost more thing-- but there's a slew of other reasons it's neither a given, nor something that'd happen fast-- insurance companies don't change their entire underwriting scheme based on "Elon said so" they will want years of detailed data for that.

Apart from that, overall crash rates would go down for everyone if RTs are safer, so manually driven cars won't be more expensive, just RTs would be cheaper.

But almost certainly not cheaper enough to pay for the FSD subscription (esp. if that subscription goes up once it's >L2)






They absolutely did not.

You can tell because it's not even compatible with Cybertruck 6 months after launch... (not even basic AP, let alone FSD),

So integrating it into other OEMs cars would be a years long endeavor--- and Tesla told you this on the Q1 call too.

Gee, I wonder if insurance will go up or down if TESLA is taking liability for FSD.
Also if FSD enabled cars are safer, it becomes government mandate eventually, kind of like back up cameras used to be a premium feature but now it's mandatory as a standard feature.

Also what kind of extrapolation is this using the CT?

When I talked about compatibility, I am mainly talking about Tesla's has cheap hardware for the performance you get. OEMs' commitment is not very large and can make back the money they put in on the hardware front. It doesn't have Nvidia hardware in which another 3rd party takes a cut.

 

[Knightshade]

Gee, I wonder if insurance will go up or down if TESLA is taking liability for FSD.

You appear to have ignored most of the actual words I wrote.

Also what kind of extrapolation is this using the CT?

The vehicle has been in development by tesla since 2019, and 6 months after its consumer release, here in mid-2024, it still doesn't have working basic autopilot.

Thus your claim FSD would come easily or quickly on non-tesla vehicles appears.... not in line with observed data.

Plus- as I said- Tesla already told us it'd take years for OEMs once a deal was signed.

When I talked about compatibility, I am mainly talking about Tesla's has cheap hardware for the performance you get.

That doesn't appear to be what you wrote since the discussion was about time-frame, not cost- though it's possible that's where you're moving the goalposts now.

Do you have an actual cost of what Tesla is going to charge vs. what others do for their ADAS systems?

OEMs' commitment is not very large and can make back the money they put in on the hardware front. It doesn't have Nvidia hardware in which another 3rd party takes a cut.

...what?

How is Tesla less a third party than Nvidia would be? And what's the cost comparison?

 

[SO16]

Just stopped by my local Tesla showroom in West MI. Had a CT on display that I could sit in. First time I’ve seen it in person. That thing is awesome. I don’t care what the haters say. Had at least 20 sitting on the lot just delivered and spoken for.

The salesperson said sales are starting to increase again due to the 0.99% model Y financing.

 

[Singuy]

You appear to have ignored most of the actual words I wrote.




The vehicle has been in development by tesla since 2019, and 6 months after its consumer release, here in mid-2024, it still doesn't have working basic autopilot.

Thus your claim FSD would come easily or quickly on non-tesla vehicles appears.... not in line with observed data.

Plus- as I said- Tesla already told us it'd take years for OEMs once a deal was signed.





That doesn't appear to be what you wrote since the discussion was about time-frame, not cost- though it's possible that's where you're moving the goalposts now.





...what?

How is Tesla less a third party than Nvidia would be?

Competitors take Nvidia hardware and then repackage it with their software so inherently it's being sold for more. If every Tesla's FSD board was made by Nvidia, then it'll definitely be a different cost wouldn't it?

Tesla's FSD development has always been about cost which makes them stands out from the others. We don't know how easy it is to integrate Tesla's FSD into other's car but we know the barrier of entry has always been cost for OEMs for any new tech. Tesla's cost is so low they give it away for free on every car.

 

[Knightshade]

Competitors take Nvidia hardware and then repackage it with their software so inherently it's being sold for more. If every Tesla's FSD board was made by Nvidia, then it'll definitely be a different cost wouldn't it?

Yeah you're making less sense with each post my dude (and drifting further and further away from support your original claims about Tesla selling server capacity to xAI- now you're on OEM licensing which would make it take LONGER before Tesla had spare compute, not shorter)

You seem to now be trying to say "OEMs now only pay a third party for HW and do their own SW" is MORE expensive than 'OEMs pay a third party for HW AND for SW"?

Maybe try showing some actual numbers (if you have any) on whatever FSD cost thing you've moved those goalposts to now.





BTW, Tesla doesn't make their FSD boards- they don't own a chip or motherboard factory, they pay another company to do that based on their design. So does Nvidia. Same-same.

 

[Knightshade]

Elon is at 14.3% once the 2018 is backed out.
411,062,076÷(3,184,519,865 −303,960,630)

22.5% with it before sales for basis and taxes.
715,022,706÷(3,184,519,865)
SC 13G/A

Just curious what % would it be with the 2018 package and if he hadn't sold to raise funds for...buying another company we'll not name.

 

[Singuy]

Yeah you're making less sense with each post my dude.

Maybe try showing some actual numbers (if you have any)


BTW, Tesla doesn't make their FSD boards- they don't own a chip or motherboard factory, they pay another company to do that based on their design. So does Nvidia. Same-same.

You are nit-picking more and more to the point it's getting very annoying to argue against. ie. "FSD is no longer beta" is a waste of everyone's time.

Nvidia makes 80% margin on their products, a product they don't even make. Who pays for this 80% margin on their chip? Will it be Tesla if the FSD chip comes from Nvidia? (Again waste of my time pointing this out)

 

[Knightshade]

You are nit-picking more and more to the point it's getting very annoying to argue against

If quoting your post back to you and pointing out none of the claims are in line with facts is annoying, maybe post less wrong things?

. ie. "FSD is no longer beta" is a waste of everyone's time.

When you said one of the reasons low sub rate was that nobody wants to use beta SW, despite it not being beta anymore, that was a waste of everyone's time.

I simply corrected you.

Nvidia makes 80% margin on their products, a product they don't even make. Who pays for this 80% margin on their chip? Will it be Tesla if the FSD chip comes from Nvidia?

Where are you getting that # from?

Are you under the hilariously wrong impression they put data center chips in the cars?


Again- Tesla does not make chips and neither does Nvidia.

They both pay an actual chip fab for that.



Legit- not sure what happened, but the quality of your posts from a fact or data perspective had gone very badly down hill.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Just curious what % would it be with the 2018 package and if he hadn't sold to raise funds for...buying another company we'll not name.

Let's call it Company X.

 

[bpjod]

I have a co-worker that let the 30 day trial pass without trying it. After I told them about it they are disappointed and will be getting a ride in my car shortly with the trial.

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink.

5 of my friends who have Tesla did not even enable FSD and try it even once, even after I reminded them many times. They even did not show much interest in taking demo rides with me. For that matter they don't even use Autopilot. I can't figure out why.

I got one of those too. I convinced one of my surfing buddies to get a Model Y last year and he was aware of the free FSD trial but thought it was only for freeways. His trial expired a few weeks ago and I just got mine last weekend and blew him away driving surface streets to Costco and dealing with the parking lot traffic.

Let me get this straight. There's this feature on Teslas that differentiate them greatly from their competitors and has the potential to be both life-saving and life-altering. It's been in development for nearly a decade. The CEO says the company is worth zero without this feature. They figure it's close enough to being out of beta that it's time to demonstrate the feature to everyone who drives a Tesla, so they give everyone a one month free trial of this amazing feature.

Many go the whole month without even giving the feature a try.

WHAT THE HECK TESLA!?!?!?

You've got this big @$$ screen that's the only thing to look at on the inside of the spartan interior and you don't have a message that pops up every time someone sits inside the vehicle proclaiming "You're on day 17 of your 30 day free trial of Full Self Driving. To activate, press down on the right stalk." (customized by model) "If you activate before your trial expires you'll receive the next 6 months of FSD for the price of 5. Click here to subscribe".

Heads should roll. I'm not even sure if I'm kidding or not...

I have FSD on both my vehicles so wasn't aware that there was little/no marketing to Tesla drivers w/o FSD already purchased/subscribed until now.