Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[alexxs88]

BTW, Tesla doesn't make their FSD boards- they don't own a chip or motherboard factory, they pay another company to do that based on their design. So does Nvidia. Same-same.

Yes. That theory is beyond pie in the sky. I know people working on the infotainment systems for big OEMs (Daimler, BMW) and the designs and production are auctioned off with the lowest bidder winning it most of the time. They use off the shelf processors that are available in volume and have very low margins since they're basically a commodity at this point. Even Nvidia has some of those as well.

The correlation between what people read in the media about Nvidia's crazy gross margins and what gets used in cars now is basically non existent.

 

[EQC_]

Tesla must face fraud suit for claiming its cars could fully drive themselves

Lawsuit targets 2016 claim that all Tesla cars "have full self-driving hardware."

arstechnica.com

Tesla is apparently contending in court that full self-driving needs lidar to be achieved.

I am not a lawyer, and only looked at this one article...but my read is:

1. The plaintiff declared as part of the complaint something like: "I was expecting Level 4 or 5 capabilities, but my car only has the hardware needed for Level 2, because Level 4 and 5 require LIDAR and Tesla doesn't have that."
2. Tesla's lawyers responded, effectively: "Okay buddy, but Elon has said many times publicly that Tesla's don't have LIDAR. So, you should have known that. Therefore, if YOU (the plaintiff) are claiming that LIDAR is needed for the capabilities you desire, then there can't be any fraud or deception. You believed the car needed LIDAR to achieve certain capabilities, and you should have known the car didn't have LIDAR, so you should not have expected those capabilities.

As to the other half of the quote from the Judge's statement:

"LoSavio plausibly alleges that he reasonably believed Tesla's claims that it could achieve self-driving with the car's existing hardware and that, if he diligently brought his car in for the required updates, the car would soon achieve the promised results."

Eesh...this is just obvious evidence that at the very least the judge doesn't understand Tesla's over the air updates. If the judge got the wording from the plaintiff's complaint, then he and his lawyers don't understand either.

It's a lawsuit from a guy who had HW2 and was upset that Tesla wanted to charge a fee to upgrade his cameras to HW3.

Aha.

I only have vague memories...but didn't Tesla originally try to charge a fee for the hardware upgrade, and then later made it free for folks who had purchased FSD?

If that memory is correct, then I'm guessing either this guy DID buy FSD, but clung to the lawsuit even after Tesla made it free, or he DIDN'T buy FSD and somehow thinks he is deprived because he can't get the hardware for free until he actually pays for the capability the hardware would enable. In either case, I hope he and his lawyers travel together every few weeks to "diligently bring his car in for the required software updates."

 

[Singuy]

Yes. That theory is beyond pie in the sky. I know people working on the infotainment systems for big OEMs (Daimler, BMW) and the designs and production are auctioned off with the lowest bidder winning it most of the time. They use off the shelf processors that are available in volume and have very low margins since they're basically a commodity at this point. Even Nvidia has some of those as well.

The correlation between what people read in the media about Nvidia's crazy gross margins and what gets used in cars now is basically non existent.

We are talking about a FSD competitor that actually use Nvidia's top of the line inference chips in order to compute their trained models for self driving, not the cheapo arm based processors made by Nvidia used for Infotainment or nintendo switches. This is in the context of a competitor's FSD gets licensed vs Tesla's. This is also under the assumption that a competitor's performance is as good as Tesla's.

 

[mongo]

BTW, Tesla doesn't make their FSD boards- they don't own a chip or motherboard factory, they pay another company to do that based on their design. So does Nvidia. Same-same.

A module requires many things:
Tesla:
Someone to create the schematic
Someone to create the layout
Someone to create the software
Not Tesla
Someone to create the physical PCB
Someone to assemble the components onto the PCB
Tesla?
Someone to assemble the populated PCB into the housing
Not Tesla:
Many someones to create the components that were assembled onto the board
Multiple stars to create the atoms
...

The vehicle has been in development by tesla since 2019, and 6 months after its consumer release, here in mid-2024, it still doesn't have working basic autopilot.

Thus your claim FSD would come easily or quickly on non-tesla vehicles appears.... not in line with observed data.

That argument fails to consider the change in FSD approaches that has occurred in the past 5 years as well as Tesla's recent increase in compute.
As a task, developing and maintaining a Cybertruck branch is not a priority when compared to unsupervised level FSD on the bulk of the vehicles. Get main branch functionality great, then fork.

 

[y_naught]

Now I'M confused. All I heard in response to Tesla skeptics was "you just need to drive one." So they drive a Tesla, love the experience, and buy one. And now that they just want to keep driving it - instead of using FSD - it's somehow baffling. Pretty funny.

It’s pretty simple: a Tesla is the best car you can drive and now, it’s also the best car you don’t have to drive.

I added the acceleration boost to my MYLR and it’s great. I use it in cases where I need to pass or accelerate quickly and I greatly enjoy knowing I have the capability. Initially with FSD on v10 it was more f an early adopter’s game, as I could drive both more safely and more reliably than the car. On v12, I can’t confidently say I am a safer driver than the car. I’m still more reliable in completing all merges and route selection, but that is quickly changing.

 

[elasalle]

Weekend boredom thoughts

Any one know the % of equity/voting control Elon has across all his companies?

e.g fished google and it says - Elon Musk (42% equity; 79% voting control) in SpaceX.

Just a thought, whether he wins/loses the vote, if he wants 25% stake in Tesla, can he not sell some of his other assets and buys tesla shares and be at 25% ? Basically it seems if Elon wanted 25%, there are ways for him to get it? Why not diversify and have 25% stake in all ...
If FED can play monopoly, Elon can/should too


Note. I voted all my shares for ELon, and not suggesting a no vote. Just saying that Elon can force his own hand and not depend on us common shareholders and the likes of Uncle Leo? Heres one way to stand up to bullies
Before the vote, if he like set aside couple of Billion (say like 4.4B - 10% of $ paid for twitter) and said I intend to buy Tesla shares in open market .... more people are gonna go back and change their vote to "Yes" ?


As always Cheers!!

 

[dhanson865]

I think, from a growth perspective, they should bring back the Safety Score and show it on the app...but with and without FSD enabled.

Further - there ought to be a public dashboard showing the efficacy of Safety across the entire fleet using that score IMO.

I'd love to see that score for my car with FSD and the Fleet with FSD but to be clear on 12.3.x it'd be a poor score.

FSD right now accelerates too hard (which isn't scored), brakes too hard (lowering score), follows too closely(lowering score for either forward collision warning and/or unsafe following). I don't think it corners hard enough to get dinged on that but I'm not sure.

I'm absolutely sure that FSD + a human to supervise it safer, I just don't think FSD 12.3.x will score well on the https://www.tesla.com/support/insurance/safety-score#version-2.1

 

[dhrivnak]

Unrelated, but you are flying wrong. With small airports, you can show up 10 min before boarding and choose your layover time. My layovers are never longer than 30 min unless there's a delay.

I fly all over the SE (at least once a week) and there's no where in the Southeast that 650 miles would be faster driving.

Basically anything over 350 miles on the interstate is faster to fly.

At what cost? Now that I am retired money is more critical than time. And I also do not like the high carbon footprint of flying.

 

[uscbucsfan]

At what cost? Now that I am retired money is more critical than time. And I also do not like the high carbon footprint of flying.

Understand, but for some time=money.

Trust me, I don't love taking 50+ flights per year.(hit 8 by mistake)

 

[Knightshade]

A module requires many things:
Tesla:
Someone to create the schematic
Someone to create the layout
Someone to create the software
Not Tesla
Someone to create the physical PCB
Someone to assemble the components onto the PCB
Tesla?
Someone to assemble the populated PCB into the housing
Not Tesla:
Many someones to create the components that were assembled onto the board
Multiple stars to create the atoms
...

...that was my original point? He was trying to claim there was some huge cost advantage for OEMs to not involve a third party in their self driving and just use Tesla... when I pointed out Tesla was as much a third party as Nvidia his defense was to say Tesla makes their own computer while Nvidia does not... which is not at all correct-- BOTH don't physically make the computer--- both design them and have another party physically fab them. Same same.

That argument fails to consider the change in FSD approaches that has occurred in the past 5 years as well as Tesla's recent increase in compute.
As a task, developing and maintaining a Cybertruck branch is not a priority when compared to unsupervised level FSD on the bulk of the vehicles. Get main branch functionality great, then fork.

That argument fails to consider that that the actual point was in dispute of his claim FSD would be "simple" to drop into any OEMs non-tesla car and take very little time- given there's apparently so much difference even between teslas cars- over which Tesla obvious has more control- that it's a bunch of extra time and work to enable it even for a new Tesla model.... let alone to add it to a civic or something.

Heck folks in here were insisting Tesla just has ONE FSD (that obviously revs versions, but it's not different for each car) and it's so amazing it's also what Optimus is gonna use off the shelf (see several folks debating that idea just a day or two ago right in this thread). Your suggestion CT needs it own branch of software as the reason it's late (and TBC- that appears to be absolutely correct based on Elons own comments) is....very much counter to that narrative- or to the narrative it'd be "simple" and fast to drop it into OEMs cars quickly.

 

[insaneoctane]

Thoughts...
Elon prefers private companies without all the public scrutiny and manipulation. ALL of Elon's non-Tesla companies are private. He's already tangled with taking Tesla private (fail) and has recently expressed dissatisfaction with his current control position of Tesla vs his vision of "futures"...If this compensation package re-vote fails, I don't see how he doesn't use that sentiment to help him decide his future effort/time should be different.

Simply, I don't think my investment in Tesla improves if the comp vote fails. As a matter of fact, I would seriously have to reconsider my exit strategy, likely sooner since Tesla's future products and demonic drive become questionable. Short term seems like it could be very ugly. I just can't wrap my head around the point of view that one's TSLA investment improves with a "no" vote.

 

[Knightshade]

Hadn't seen this posted yet- S/X dropping support for Steam in new deliveries (likely downgrade of the MCU to match the cheaper part used in 3/Y that never had steam support)

Tesla drops Steam gaming support inside its vehicles

Tesla is telling new Model S and Model X buyers that they won’t have access to Steam gaming inside their...

electrek.co

A little surprising ahead of the RT unveil as some folks were presenting in-car high end gaming as a pro-RT feature so you'd think they'd look to expand, not contract, on such offerings.

 

[cliff harris]

Or just catch a flight that's 1.5s hours for something that's safer than driving? Even if FSD is safer, there are many bad drivers on the road as we probably all can agree on. I checked Southwest and there are flights as cheap as $46/1 way. You still need to charge on the way there as well as charge after arriving which isn't free (and expensive in CA).

Having a car at your destination is nice, especially if it's your own car with all your stuff, but I am not sure I agree with you that there will be many takers at $300/trip, add in all the charging/time/higher risk driving vs. a flight, even for a small family.

Given the catastrophic impact of carbon emissions from flying, and no immediate prospect of pollution-free flights any time soon, as climate change inevitably gets worse, I suspect many governments will go further in financially encouraging people not to fly, especially if it becomes common for people to have FSD.

 

[willow_hiller]

Hadn't seen this posted yet- S/X dropping support for Steam in new deliveries (likely downgrade of the MCU to match the cheaper part used in 3/Y that never had steam support)

Tesla drops Steam gaming support inside its vehicles

Tesla is telling new Model S and Model X buyers that they won’t have access to Steam gaming inside their...

electrek.co

A little surprising ahead of the RT unveil as some folks were presenting in-car high end gaming as a pro-RT feature so you'd think they'd look to expand, not contract, on such offerings.

Not only is a dedicated GPU in the vehicle an expensive part that only a small percentage of owners end up using, but it becomes obsolete rather quickly and would take even more time and service resource to upgrade.

A lot has changed in the PC gaming industry since Tesla first put gaming GPUs in the S and X. The Nintendo Switch and the Steam Deck have really shifted the industry toward performant and affordable gaming handhelds that can easily be played in a vehicle. Even with robotaxi, it just doesn't make sense for Tesla to provide the gaming hardware in-vehicle when you can get a better experience you can play in the car or at home with a PC handheld.

 

[sunwarriors]

Given the catastrophic impact of carbon emissions from flying, and no immediate prospect of pollution-free flights any time soon, as climate change inevitably gets worse, I suspect many governments will go further in financially encouraging people not to fly, especially if it becomes common for people to have FSD.

I don't know about the folks here, but I have little/no confidence the world/US/China/India will honestly care enough/give much of a crap for carbon emissions and climate change to change it enough to have true impact. You have many red states rolling back or blocking climate initiatives (FL, TX recent examples) and even CA kills solar off (profits/CPUC/Newsom/etc with pro IOU (Investor Owned Utilities with special interest to fund Newsom)). There are simply too many conflicting parties IMO to ever make enough of an impact.

I just don't think we, as a nation/people/world/politically are motivated until it hits us (which it IS already) to do much about it. That's my overall view at least. Did you watch Don't Look Up? That'll happen with climate whether we like it or not and in many parts of the world, it's already happening. Houston massive storms again and deaths even as we speak this week.

Governments are scaling back solar all over the US, and as mentioned, FL banned any mention of "climate" anything in recent news reports. TX blocked renewable project incentives in favor for gas/oil.

Governments aren't going to do crap IMO.


Edit: Wanted to add this is similar to AI, we talk a lot of talk, but doubtful any guardrails would be implemented for that in pursuit of speed/staying ahead/profits/scale. You can see how fast (major /s) we deal with social media, youth depression, the list goes on and on.

 

[nativewolf]

Sunwarrior I hate to say I agree. I think there is much virtue signaling and little real work. In our industry we see VCs sloppy happy drunk to fund "climate tech" associated with carbon credits but when you really pull back the carbon credit business you find 3 VC backed middlemen and shockingly....there is almost NO additionality. Virtually the entire process is a giant sham- tree planting in Brazil...it doesnt work..shocker. Soil programs in Laos...what...nobody is doing it...shocker, a 50 million tree plantation in China...that does not exist...perplexing indeed. You have some of our oldest non-profits selling soul to push carbon credits at the very detriment of the ecosystems they are charted to protect (looking at you TNC and AFF). Sadly TNC and AFF programs will not only increase greenhouse emissions over 40 years but will cause a catastrophic loss in biodiveristy in NA temperate forests.

Therefore, I feel all the more strongly that the only way to really achieve change is to convert the grid to solar/wind and convert transport to electric. We can do that. It's simply better, an EV is a better experience than an ICE. Renewables, when they are working properly, are the least expensive form of energy. The key to both is battery technology. It is today and will be tomorrow, all about batteries. I feel Tesla was and may still be the best solution to achieve this in NA. At least they have set a bar in vehicle design and now in battery storage. The battery storage bar is lower and the competition will soon just be flooding over it but the demand is very high and deep. For a while yet Tesla may have "IBM" protection.

 

[Causalien]

just finished voting.

There are definitely brokerages that forgot to send me the proxy

 

[Joe F]

just finished voting.

There are definitely brokerages that forgot to send me the proxy

Check your junk/spam folders. Enough people must have flagged Fidelity as spam that Verizon (now handled by AOL) places mail from them in junk.

I had to create a filter to deliver mail from Fidelity to its own folder.

 

[samppa]

I'm in scandinavia, where we have quite good high speed rail connecting all major cities. Major routes trains speed up to 200 km/h.

But either trains are ridiculously expensive, or flying is riduculously cheap, prices are pretty much equal. A 6-hour train trip costs about the same as a 1-hour flight for the same route.

Aviation is still quite heavily subsidised. Nothings gonna change if these subsidies won't be cut.

For longer distances, overnight sleeper trains are usually much more expensive than flying.

 

[cliff harris]

I dont think you can extrapolate from the US as to how global politics will respond to climate change. I'm in the UK, which is a climate-change denying hellscape compared to much of Europe, and we are tons better than the US.
Take a look at China's rollout of high speed rail, and its amazing progress on solar and wind. Actually wind energy in the UK is often the largest source of electricity here.
The USA is, sadly, an outlier for being determined to ignore climate change and hope it goes away...
But to get back to investment stuff, the US is not the majority of the world. Even if it continues to turn a blind eye to short haul flights, other countries will not, especially Europe and China. FSD is definitely going to have an impact there. France has already enacted a law that outlaws short haul flights were less damaging options exist. Others are bound to follow.

There are also people who, regardless of govt policy, will avoid flying. If I was to go to Scotland again, I'd never fly. I'd get a sleeper train, or preferably, let my Tesla do the drive.