Tesla Network prerequisites

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686816248703934464

Literally a string of pulled out of the butt nonsense numbers there.

 

[Buckminster]

I'm actually pretty happy that Cruise & Waymo are battling the public perception and regulators first. Ideally, by the time people/municipalities are getting comfortable with AV's, Tesla will be launching its service. Let them block and then hit the hole!

 

[Buckminster]

I think this is new?

California regulators to decide the future of Cruise and Waymo | TechCrunch

California regulators will vote Thursday on whether to grant Cruise and Waymo permits to expand commercial robotaxi services across San Francisco 24/7.

techcrunch.com

San Fran about to decide if waymo/cruise can operate daytime services and charge people. Its a big deal for both companies.
I recommend reading the article, if only for the HBOSiliconValley style hilarity of whats gone wrong:

Not trying to bash waymo/cruise, but its sure an easier sell for Teslas approach right now. Not only do Tesla likely have 100x the data for weird events like arriving at a fire scene, from which they can learn, there is also no Tesla operating without someone at the wheel.

I think the smart move is for Tesla to aggressively market FSD subscriptions to existing uber drivers, and get a reputation for making 'driverless' cars that still have a driver, but the driver and passenger can see for themselves how rarely they are needed.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689837036910391296

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692758626438398345

Not great for Tesla.

 

[Buckminster]

Towards the end of the livestream Elon states that RT will find you based on an uploaded picture.

RT otherwise will park as close to pin drop as possible.

 

[Buckminster]

Years ago I heard and even used what3words a few times. I believed it might make sense in a future where autonomous cars, and bots, will know exactly where to go, on a 1square meter location. I think Google made their own version also. Maybe in the future our addresses will change to accommodate autonomous agents of all kinds. They will be really precise, they will never knock on the wrong/neighbor’s door while they come for you.

Ideally there should be a pin (or what3words) for drop-off and 4 pins for the perimeter of the car park

 

[Buckminster]

There is no second place in FSD, if you need NNs and vast training data. The ONLY company on earth which a fleet numbered in the millions collecting training data is Tesla. It doesn't matter if Tesla go and give a ten hour powerpoint presentation on prime time TV explaining EXACTLY how the neural nets work, and giving the specifications of the cameras, and a handy guide to how to set up all of the training infrastructure...

its still absolutely useless without the final weights from the trained data. You basically have 2 options:

1. Sell at least 2 million cars at a likely loss, with all the hardware installed, and wait a few years hoping to scoop up an equivalent data set before you go bankrupt because everyone has just bought a Tesla.
2. License FSD.

Being second-place to robotaxis is not the same as second place to seat belts, or to LED headlights. Its not something that can be simply copied by looking at an existing car. Of course, 99% of traditional auto-execs have zero clue how this stuff works, so they probably think they can copy it. But they cannot. They are screwed. Oh and they don't have the in-house expertise for the hardware or software either.

I am very bearish on robotaxis, although bullish on FSD as being a substantial value-add for every Tesla. But the chances of anybody quickly following Tesla once its achieved is zero. This is one of the few things where I think gary Black is totally wrong.

Why bearish on RTs?

 

[Buckminster]

3rd segment discusses Cruise accident RT benefit / risk:

 

[Buckminster]

Very informative article about the negotiation process for FSD in UNECE member states. Long, but worth reading if you are interested in. No matter as an investor or Tesla owner. Written in Dutch, but I'm sure the translator of your browser will help.

Besprekingen UNECE en GRVA: toekomst van zelfrijdende auto’s | MisterGreen

In dit artikel lees je alles over de bestuursorganen en actoren die verantwoordelijk zijn binnen de VN voor voertuigregulering, de geschiedenis van reguleringen

www.mistergreen.nl

 

[Buckminster]

Increasingly important as drivers become safety monitors:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714363063485296897

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1718540088895045887

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1727899981674373129

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742632556955086920

Is useful for other reasons but this would definitely be needed for Robotaxi.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1744723721703854107

 

[Knightshade]

... it sounds like a robotaxi because it pulls up to curbs?

Self park on HW2 was doing that what 6 years ago?


People gonna start tripping over the bar given how much we've lowered it....

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750424026353488299

 

[Buckminster]

Could be helpful:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760959728111268193

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768495915969703989

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769059878264623603