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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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I’m having a difficult time taking seriously a company whose name’s first five letters spell “Felon”.
I asked llama-3 what is the origin of the name feloni. Below is what it told me:
The origin of the name Feloni is Italian, and it is derived from the Latin name "Felonius," which means "felon" or "criminal." In the Middle Ages, the name Feloni was used to identify someone who had committed a crime or was considered an outlaw.

In Italy, the name Feloni is most commonly found in the regions of Tuscany, Umbria, and Marche, where it was originally used to identify individuals who had been convicted of crimes such as theft, murder, or treason.

Over time, the name Feloni has evolved and has been adapted into different variations, such as Felonio, Felon, Felonino, and Felonelli. These variations are still found in Italy and other countries, including the United States, where Italian immigrants brought the name with them.

Today, the name Feloni is still used in Italy and is also found in other countries, including the United States, Canada, and Australia. It is a unique and distinctive name that reflects the rich cultural heritage of Italy and its history.
 
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For some...the original stark choice was a Russian prison or the front line....the choice of a Ukrainien POW camp and the front line might be more nuanced

Guessing the Russian Dictator and his minions have ways to extort them to return by using their family members... But sure... If they don't have any family members they care about – then a Ukrainian POV camp or one of the Russian legions fighting on the same side as the Ukrainians would of course be an infinitely better choice.
 
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I think this will change fast after the US election. Trumps poll numbers are climbing everyday and pretty fast the last two weeks. Both 270 to win and 538 show him polling above Biden which is a significant change from before the trial started. If he’s convicted he is guaranteed to win in my humble opinion. Putin knows he just has to hold out until January and then he’ll have access to all the frozen assets, American weapons, intelligence and financial aid. Europe will have to dig deep to match that kind of support on the Ukrainian side. I doubt that will last long. I doubt trump will let Russia fail.

Interesting times.

Jmho.
 
Allegedly:

Reaper drones move to the top of Ukraine’s wish list

[...] BY: PAUL MCLEARY, LEE HUDSON | 05/03/2024 05: PM EDT

[...] Since the early days of the war, the Reaper has been a priority for Kyiv as it sought to use them for strike and surveillance missions. But recently, Ukraine has dialed back that request and is mainly interested in using Reapers only for reconnaissance, according to four people familiar with the issue who were granted anonymity to discuss the new strategy. [...


 
Allegedly:

Reaper drones move to the top of Ukraine’s wish list

[...] BY: PAUL MCLEARY, LEE HUDSON | 05/03/2024 05: PM EDT

[...] Since the early days of the war, the Reaper has been a priority for Kyiv as it sought to use them for strike and surveillance missions. But recently, Ukraine has dialed back that request and is mainly interested in using Reapers only for reconnaissance, according to four people familiar with the issue who were granted anonymity to discuss the new strategy. [...


That's a curious one. They were made for the war on terror. I don't think they'll do well in a battlefield with actual air defenses.
 
AI controlled F-16 being demoed with the Secretary of the US Airforce onboard. That's ballsy.

An AI-controlled fighter jet took the Air Force leader for a historic ride. What that means for war

EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. (AP) — With the midday sun blazing, an experimental orange and white F-16 fighter jet launched with a familiar roar that is a hallmark of U.S. airpower. But the aerial combat that followed was unlike any other: This F-16 was controlled by artificial intelligence, not a human pilot. And riding in the front seat was Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall.
 
What is the incentive for Russian prisoners of war to want to return to Russia....and then to the front line ?

I have read that the Ukrainians are offering asylum to any Russians who do not want to go back to Russia. Most people don't want to leave their home country behind. They like the familiar and find the idea of another place too discomforting. So most will go back even if it means they will probably get thrown into the meat grinder again.

Planes in the desert we could give Ukraine:

Refurbishing an existing aircraft is easier than building from scratch, but all those aircraft need work to be brought back to operational status. It can be done, but not done quickly.

One of the delays in delivering the F-16s has been updating the radar systems to a more modern variant and that's taken a fair bit of time. In that case they were starting with flyable aircraft in good condition.

I think this will change fast after the US election. Trumps poll numbers are climbing everyday and pretty fast the last two weeks. Both 270 to win and 538 show him polling above Biden which is a significant change from before the trial started. If he’s convicted he is guaranteed to win in my humble opinion. Putin knows he just has to hold out until January and then he’ll have access to all the frozen assets, American weapons, intelligence and financial aid. Europe will have to dig deep to match that kind of support on the Ukrainian side. I doubt that will last long. I doubt trump will let Russia fail.

Interesting times.

Jmho.

Where are you getting your news? The polling averages have not changed significantly, but since the trial began the average has moved towards Biden very slightly. Polls and focus groups that ask people how their vote would change if Trump was convicted in New York show pretty consistently a 9-14 point shift towards Biden if he is convicted. And the actual election results have shown the polls are off by about 7-12 points pretty consistently.

538 and Nate Silver had a very good bead on elections back in 2008-2012, but since 2016 their accuracy has fallen off a cliff. The models they use are built on how politics worked in the first decade of this century and things have changed. Their model is out of date.

History also shows that polls at this stage in a campaign have little accuracy of the final outcome. In a race with an incumbent running, there is always a percentage of people who flirt with the challenger because they aren't completely happy with the incumbent. Quite a few return to the incumbent on election day unless the incumbent is a complete disaster.

Another factor in US presidential elections is that in every presidential election since 1960 (when TV became a major factor), the more likeable candidate has always won. It was even a factor before then. In 1956 when Eisenhower ran for reelection the slogan was "I Like Ike". If the likeability or dis-likability of the two candidates was about equal, the more interesting of the two won. Trump won in 2016 in large part because they were both about equally disliked, but Trump put on more of a show. He was more dynamic and interesting to watch. Trump lost in 2020 because Biden is more likeable by a wide margin.
 
I have read that the Ukrainians are offering asylum to any Russians who do not want to go back to Russia. Most people don't want to leave their home country behind. They like the familiar and find the idea of another place too discomforting. So most will go back even if it means they will probably get thrown into the meat grinder again.



Refurbishing an existing aircraft is easier than building from scratch, but all those aircraft need work to be brought back to operational status. It can be done, but not done quickly.

One of the delays in delivering the F-16s has been updating the radar systems to a more modern variant and that's taken a fair bit of time. In that case they were starting with flyable aircraft in good condition.



Where are you getting your news? The polling averages have not changed significantly, but since the trial began the average has moved towards Biden very slightly. Polls and focus groups that ask people how their vote would change if Trump was convicted in New York show pretty consistently a 9-14 point shift towards Biden if he is convicted. And the actual election results have shown the polls are off by about 7-12 points pretty consistently.

538 and Nate Silver had a very good bead on elections back in 2008-2012, but since 2016 their accuracy has fallen off a cliff. The models they use are built on how politics worked in the first decade of this century and things have changed. Their model is out of date.

History also shows that polls at this stage in a campaign have little accuracy of the final outcome. In a race with an incumbent running, there is always a percentage of people who flirt with the challenger because they aren't completely happy with the incumbent. Quite a few return to the incumbent on election day unless the incumbent is a complete disaster.

Another factor in US presidential elections is that in every presidential election since 1960 (when TV became a major factor), the more likeable candidate has always won. It was even a factor before then. In 1956 when Eisenhower ran for reelection the slogan was "I Like Ike". If the likeability or dis-likability of the two candidates was about equal, the more interesting of the two won. Trump won in 2016 in large part because they were both about equally disliked, but Trump put on more of a show. He was more dynamic and interesting to watch. Trump lost in 2020 because Biden is more likeable by a wide margin.
My polling info came from 270 to win and 538. Both have been steadily moving towards trump and have trump in the lead.