Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

rim rash repair.

Gonna need it.

Probably want to get rebalancing and alignment on there as well as initial capabilities.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Something else I didn’t consider is that supercharger utilization is very low. If they deploy an Optimus at each supercharger your car will be able to drive itself to the supercharger and get a charge while you sleep.

Yes this will be key for solving the problem of people without access to home charging.

 

[primedive]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785406795814510785

Robotaxis won't need more superchargers across the country?

there are still a lot of dead zones in Canada so hopefully not slowing down too much. It’s nearly 2025, it should be possible to go just about anywhere by EV at this point.

 

[aataskin]

Optimus will also be able to do basic service like tire rotation and rim rash repair.

Unrelated to the thread, but I think roughly 98% of news concerning Tesla are formulated in the future tense. FSD will drive better, the car will be able to park, optimus will also be able...

 

[aataskin]

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-byd-unveils-new-dolphin-ev-with-lower-starting-price-2024-02-23/#:~:text=The%20new%20Dolphin%20EV%20goes,priced%20plug%2Din%20hybrid%20sedan.

How about this news from not so distant future. Even with a 60% tariff, this car is still $22k. Makes sense for Tesla to prioritize software development.

 

[spacecoin]

Makes sense for Tesla to prioritize software development.

You should watch Jim Keller's comments on FSD this week.

This is what's going on in general with "AI". Think of FSDS as the circle in the middle and robotaxis as the top circle.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-byd-unveils-new-dolphin-ev-with-lower-starting-price-2024-02-23/#:~:text=The%20new%20Dolphin%20EV%20goes,priced%20plug%2Din%20hybrid%20sedan.

How about this news from not so distant future. Even with a 60% tariff, this car is still $22k. Makes sense for Tesla to prioritize software development.

Yeah there is no way for Tesla to compete with that, may as well give up.

 

[aataskin]

20 crashes since December. I wonder how it compares with human driving (seems like NHTSA are curious as well, hence they are requesting Tesla to explain how their data is collected).

Tesla vehicles kept crashing even after the Autopilot software updates, NHTSA says

Nine crashes involved Teslas striking objects in front of them.

www.theverge.com

 

[aataskin]

Let's say for argument's sake that Tesla guys eventually manage to get to 70% fewer crashes than a human. But if the competition that doesn't limit themselves to vision only manages to get to 90% fewer crashes, then selling those vision only robotaxis won't be easy, the other guys will be stressing how their robotaxis are three times safer than Teslas (even though both are much safer than human driving).

 

[JulienW]

20 crashes since December. I wonder how it compares with human driving (seems like NHTSA are curious as well, hence they are requesting Tesla to explain how their data is collected).

AP crashes are not really relevant to this thread. If some of the 20 are on FSD then they would be they need to be segregated. Even FSD crashes still need to be divided on FSD Beta and FSDS (V12.x).

 

[spacecoin]

20 crashes since December. I wonder how it compares with human driving (seems like NHTSA are curious as well, hence they are requesting Tesla to explain how their data is collected).

Tesla only counts air bag deployments as "crash". There are likely many many more.

 

[QtownTaxiGreg]

Over here there are a.holes selling weights to idiots to go on steering wheel to fool the computer there is hands on the wheel. I found them in a search for Tesla wheels.

 

[aataskin]

Tesla Surprisingly Becomes Luminar's Largest Lidar Customer, Contradicting Musk's Past Criticism

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has described lidar sensors as a “crutch” for autonomous vehicles. Yet Tesla has become the largest customer of lidar manufacturer Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR). As disclosed in Luminar’s earnings report on Tuesday, in the first quarter of 2024...

finance.yahoo.com

I think this news belongs in this thread

 

[DrChaos]

Tesla Surprisingly Becomes Luminar's Largest Lidar Customer, Contradicting Musk's Past Criticism

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has described lidar sensors as a “crutch” for autonomous vehicles. Yet Tesla has become the largest customer of lidar manufacturer Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR). As disclosed in Luminar’s earnings report on Tuesday, in the first quarter of 2024...

finance.yahoo.com

I think this news belongs in this thread

It looks pretty bad for Luminar unfortunately.

> As disclosed in Luminar’s earnings report on Tuesday, in the first quarter of 2024, Tesla contributed over 10% of Luminar’s revenue, totaling more than $2 million

That means they have few lidar sales so far and the biggest customer is one that isn't going to put in a big order ever.

Tesla buys them for data collection on test cars---excellent source of supervised data for the occupancy networks---but isn't likely to deploy on manufactured and sold cars.

If they want another sensor deployed, a high resolution radar would be my choice.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Elon did say those automakers using lidar were doomed so this does make sense.

 

[petercc9]

Sadly the reveal will probably be it was released in China before the US.

This is from the CCP's own mouthpiece...

May 8th

Sources: Tesla plans to test its 'robotaxi' in China

Elon Musk, the CEO of the United States electric vehicle maker Tesla, proposed testing the full self-driving, or FSD, functions of its vehicles in the Chinese market by deploying them as "taxis" during his recent visit to China, and sources indicated that the Chinese government may have offered...

www.chinadaily.com.cn

May 9th

Sources: China mulling Tesla robotaxi tests

China is very likely to support US vehicle maker Tesla's local testing of robotaxis, and may move to consider data compliance issues given that data regulators attended a recent top-level meeting that involved Elon Musk, the automaker's CEO, sources told China Daily on Wednesday.

www.chinadaily.com.cn

China is very likely to support US vehicle maker Tesla's local testing of robotaxis, and may move to consider data compliance issues given that data regulators attended a recent top-level meeting that involved Elon Musk, the automaker's CEO, sources told China Daily on Wednesday.

Experts and domestic self-driving firms believe that Tesla's progress reinforces China's commitment to further open up to more foreign players in the Chinese market for mutual benefit, especially in some emerging sectors like autonomous driving.

 

[aataskin]

It looks pretty bad for Luminar unfortunately.

> As disclosed in Luminar’s earnings report on Tuesday, in the first quarter of 2024, Tesla contributed over 10% of Luminar’s revenue, totaling more than $2 million

That means they have few lidar sales so far and the biggest customer is one that isn't going to put in a big order ever.

Tesla buys them for data collection on test cars---excellent source of supervised data for the occupancy networks---but isn't likely to deploy on manufactured and sold cars.

If they want another sensor deployed, a high resolution radar would be my choice.

Somebody commented in a different thread that the cost of a lidar kit is between $100 and $500, which means Tesla bought thousands of them in the first three months of this year. We don't know what the total order is.

 

[petercc9]

It looks pretty bad for Luminar unfortunately.

> As disclosed in Luminar’s earnings report on Tuesday, in the first quarter of 2024, Tesla contributed over 10% of Luminar’s revenue, totaling more than $2 million

That means they have few lidar sales so far and the biggest customer is one that isn't going to put in a big order ever.

Tesla buys them for data collection on test cars---excellent source of supervised data for the occupancy networks---but isn't likely to deploy on manufactured and sold cars.

If they want another sensor deployed, a high resolution radar would be my choice.

Yes, I'm sure this is to confirm cameras on test cars are judging depth perception correctly. They likely have it all figured out by now.

 

[aataskin]

Yes, I'm sure this is to confirm cameras on test cars are judging depth perception correctly. They likely have it all figured out by now.

A different article quotes $1000 for a lidar kit with software so I think we are talking about thousands of cars' worth of lidars. And this is only in the first quarter of this year. Let's see what Luminar reports for Q2.

 

[petercc9]

A different article quotes $1000 for a lidar kit with software so I think we are talking about thousands of cars' worth of lidars. And this is only in the first quarter of this year. Let's see what Luminar reports for Q2.

Hmm...I doubt they need thousands of LiDAR test cars.

Maybe they anticipate some governments requiring Robotaxis to have a secondary backup driving system.