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Is it really super dangerous to go over the 120pound weight limit of the stock tow hitch? I’m about 30-50 pounds over.

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I believe the limitation on the S and X is due to the air suspension and or wheels/tires. The wheels are already carrying a heavy load, especially the crappy 21s on the S and the 22's on the X and also lack a significant amount of rubber between the wheel and road, adding weight just makes this more risky.

Let's say your car has tires that are load index rated at 102Y, which has a maximum load rating of 1874 lbs X 4 for the whole GVWR of the car and it yields 7496 lbs, well over the GVWR of 6085 lbs (5185 base weight +900 cargo) for the X and 5360 GVWR (4560 lbs + 800 lbs) for the S.

Here is the catch, the wheels are only rated to carry 6800 lbs (in my use case with 19 inch wheels on a S). The 21 and 22 inch wheels are even worse with a lower load per axle and closer to the GVWR of both the S with 21's and X with 22's increasing the risk of catastrophic failure as you exceed the GVWR and tow rating of the vehicle. Note that a Model X with 22 inch wheels is limited to 3500 lbs towing and with 20 inch wheels limited to 5000 lbs towing.

I'm with you, I lived in Europe and saw people tow with cars weighing 2200 lbs with massive campers AKA caravans, however there are key differences in European campers (lighter, no blackwater tanks, no slide outs, etc). The difference in Europe is they train you how to drive and require a special license (B+E) to tow a caravan...

That Bosal hitch is pretty standard in Europe and can handle way more load than what Tesla has limited it to, it is not the limiting factor on the Tesla. I need to check my X, but the same Bosal hitch on my old Touareg was rated for 3500 kg or 7,700 lbs of tow weight.

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So…. Back to the original question for my 2022 model x plaid with 20 inch wheels. Is over loading the 120 pound limit of the stock hitch with my e-bikes and rack by 40 pounds over the 120 pound limit still relatively safe. I’m leaning towards yes and I see so many people doing this.
 
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I pretty sure Bosal would approve, here is Bosal's 3 bike carrier system mounted on a Bosal hitch. 60kg maximum load or 132 lbs. the carrier weighs 21 kg or 46 lbs , I think Bosal would give you a thumbs up. 178 lbs total if I am reading this right.



Bosal comfort pro III​

  • Bosal comfort pro III

Bicycle carrier for up to 3 bicycles
User-friendly quick release system
Easy and safe fixation of the bicycles
Practical tiltable mechanism by means of foot pedal for easy trunk access
Multifunctional plug (7/13-pin)
Anti-theft device
Wider wheel rails, specifically for e-bicycles and MTB
The Bosal bicycle carriers are suitable for transporting e-bicycles and are equipped with wide wheel rails and stoppers which are very suitable for wide bicycle tires. Even wider wheel stoppers are available for fatbikes.
They can easily be mounted on the towbar using a fast tensioner. Sturdy frame holders securely fix the bicycles and additionally protect them from theft.
All systems are delivered fully assembled and also a storage bag for space-saving storage in the trunk, garage or basement is separately available.
Suitable for e-bike
Best Reviewed Testpanel

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723373594.jpg

Dimension: 148 x 83 x 67,5 cm (unfolded), 25 x 83 x 76,5 cm (folded)
Dead weight: 21 kg
Maximum load: 60 kg
Wheel base: 135 cm
Max. width of tires: 60 mm
Bicycles can be placed in zigzag order which makes it possible to mount 3 robust bicycles
500-003
 
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I had a 5' x 8' uHaul hitched up to the X stock hitch and drove that thing 600+miles from SoCal to NorCal. I had a V-Twin motorcycle inside the trailer and went over some crappy roads in the drive that bounced everything around pretty well. Worked fine without any issues. When I removed the hitch from the car there was no visible damage or signs of wear to it.
Although I could lift the trailer off the ball of the hitch by hand like I was deadlifting it, it was definitely not light and did not damage anything on the car.
 
So…. Back to the original question for my 2022 model x plaid with 20 inch wheels. Is over loading the 120 pound limit of the stock hitch with my e-bikes and rack by 40 pounds over the 120 pound limit still relatively safe. I’m leaning towards yes and I see so many people doing this.
It's safe, until it isn't... meaning the problem is not a partial failure, but rather a complete failure/collapse with your stuff either flying down the freeway and hitting other cars -or- remaining attached to your car but being dragged and ruined.

If you insist on taking this risk, then at least strap the bikes & rack to the top of the door to reduce maximum hitch dynamic loads and to prevent your stuff from flying all over the freeway.
 
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I had a 5' x 8' uHaul hitched up to the X stock hitch and drove that thing 600+miles from SoCal to NorCal. I had a V-Twin motorcycle inside the trailer and went over some crappy roads in the drive that bounced everything around pretty well. Worked fine without any issues. When I removed the hitch from the car there was no visible damage or signs of wear to it.
Although I could lift the trailer off the ball of the hitch by hand like I was deadlifting it, it was definitely not light and did not damage anything on the car.
this is towing a trailer. We are not talking about towing a trailer with wheels. We all know the model x can tow up to a 5,000 pound trailer with a max 500 pounds of tongue weight on the hitch. Were talking about the hitch being rated to a crazy low120 pounds of vertical weight for bike racks and hitch boxes.