Blog WSJ: Ambitious Autopilot Push Angered Tesla Engineers

Tesla engineers are reportedly jumping ship because they don’t believe Autopilot 2.0 hardware can meet the fully self-driving promise that Elon Musk proudly touts.

The Wall Street Journal says Sterling Anderson, previously the Autopilot director, decided to leave Tesla in December in part because he didn’t agree with the claims Musk was making about the vehicle’s potential for full autonomy.

According to the WSJ (paywall):

In a meeting after the announcement, someone asked Autopilot director Sterling Anderson how Tesla could brand the product “Full Self-Driving,” several employees recall. “This was Elon’s decision,” they said he responded. Two months later, Mr. Anderson resigned.

The Autopilot division has lost some 10 employees and four managers recently, according to the report. Satish Jeyachandran, the former director of hardware engineering for Tesla’s Autopilot team, and Berta Rodriguez-Hervas, a former machine learning manager also left the company in June. Anderson was succeeded by Chris Lattner, a former Apple developer, but he left in June after just six months on the job.

Tesla has declined to comment on the report.

 

[ecarfan]

Now we know AP2 and FSD wasn't anywhere ready when Tesla started taking $8k for FSD and promised delivery 'soon'.

FSDC is $3K, not $8K.

Tesla has always stated that if you buy the FSDC option now the software is not yet released and that it is not possible for Tesla to predict when each element of FSDC will be availble due to differing laws in different localities. It says so right on the S/X configuration page.

@Tam I agree with your post (below). Well said.

I wouldn't assign blame on Tesla or those who leave it.

I respect those who leave it due to various reasons including ethics.

But that does not mean Tesla is unethical in promising something impossible.

I think that's how Tesla was created: Promising things that sane people would think crazy, impossible or plain fraud.

It may take Tesla some time but it has proven that it has risen over obstacles and become successful along the way.

 

[tomas]

FSDC is $3K, not $8K.

Tesla has always stated that if you buy the FSDC option now the software is not yet released and that it is not possible for Tesla to predict when each element of FSDC will be availble due to differing laws in different localities. It says so right on the S/X configuration page.

^^this

if you are going to spend $100k and rely on second hand interpretation of tweets, or words of 25 year old salespeople, you are insufficiently diligent. RTFC!

 

[McRat]

...

But that does not mean XXXXX is unethical in promising something impossible.

...

Wow. Sounds like what folk in the financial services and mortgage industries said at one point, and what some law firms say today.

Yes. It is absolutely, 100%, no caveats, no exemptions, UNETHICAL to promise something impossible:

"Yes, give me $100,000 and I will cure your cancer. I know you've been told by other doctors that there is only remission, not a cure. I promise a full cure."

"Yes, give me $100,000 and I will secure your building permit on that land that is in a flood basin. I know the city told you it was impossible as did the Army Corp of Engineers. I promise $100,000 is enough to solve the situation which probably requires a $2.5 million dam."

"Yes, I will have your house painted before Friday. Yes, it's quoted for 200 manhours, and I have a staff of 3, and tomorrow is Friday, but I'm promising you it can be done."

Etc.

If you do not know with absolutely certainty you can meet a goal, you do not hide this from your family, friends, coworkers, customers, suppliers, managers, employees, or even your dog. We are humans, and we do it because we are flawed, each and every one of us. But it cannot be deemed ethical. It's a DAMN SCREWUP. Ugghh.... Kids today.

You just try to learn from your mistakes and undergo continuous improvement in your management procedures by using such mistakes as a valuable tool for the future.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

FSDC is $3K, not $8K.

Tesla has always stated that if you buy the FSDC option now the software is not yet released and that it is not possible for Tesla to predict when each element of FSDC will be availble due to differing laws in different localities. It says so right on the S/X configuration page.

Let's be clear, though.

Be FSD as may, overall AP2, including the 5k EAP, was nowhere near as advertised last year or any day since. We are still away from even basic AP1 parity. The AP2 system is still unable to handle rain sensing etc.

We were misled.

 

[Tam]

...Yes. It is absolutely, 100%, no caveats, no exemptions, UNETHICAL to promise something impossible...

I gave past examples of how experts, engineers would call Tesla a fraud for laying out its secret plan.

Anti-Tesla would say Tesla is unethical, ponzi scheme and fraud and it would die soon.

They have been wrong and today, they are still very wrong.

Tesla discloses its promise clearly pending on:

1) validations: with no timeline. May be once the turnover of the team is finished and it's stabilized, we might get a better feel of timeline for validations.

2) regulatory approvals: with no timeline.

For your example: I can cure your cancer but I clearly disclose:

1) only if human trials are successful and validated. Depend on the trial size, it may take years or decades. And after that it might not be successful.

2) only if with FDA approval: There are fast track for some rare compassionate case but most likely it's very lengthy.

So, the impossibility can be done but it is conditional.

Please! We need more people to deal with impossible problems rather than screaming at them for trying!

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Tesla discloses its promise clearly pending on:

1) validations: with no timeline. May be once the turnover of the team is finished and it's stabilized, we might get a better feel of timeline for validations.

2) regulatory approvals: with no timeline.

One could argue these are already unethical when development is what is missing, not just validation and approval.

 

[Tam]

One could argue these are already unethical when development is what is missing, not just validation and approval.

The fact is, there has been no lack of development or any delays and its progress has been swift:

10/19/2016 Enhanced Autopilot Hardware Announced
12/31/2016 35 mph Autopilot to first 1,000 owners
2/5/2017 Autopilot increased to 45 mph, side collision warning (v8.0.17.5.28)
2/28/2017 Parallell AutoPark v8.0 (17.7.2)
3/9/2017 Autopilot incresed to 55 mph. v8.0 (17.9.3)
3/29/2017 Autopilot increased to 80 mph, summon. v8.1 (17.11.3)
5/6/2017 Autopilot increased to 90 mph, v8.1 (17.17.4)
6/10/2017 Perpendicular Parking v8.1 (17.22.46)

This extreme development is a significant improved fast pace comparing with the last AP1 that was announced in 10/9/2014 but its AutoSteer was never activated until more than a year later in 10/15/2015.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Indeed. The "full self-driving" thing was almost completely unbelievable from the moment the words left his lips, for all kinds of reasons. I'm willing to believe the AP2 hardware can do some great stuff. Full self-driving, meaning without limitations or caveats? No way.

During the ordering process Tesla qualifies the timing in the following statement about regulatory constraints:

"Please note that Self-Driving functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval, which may vary widely by jurisdiction. It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval."

Their description of the functionality also has a key qualifier that leaves them a lot of leeway as to which level of autonomy is "Full Self-Driving".

"Full Self-Driving Capability
This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, [emphasis mine] at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat."

There are six levels of driving automation. From level 3 and above the automated driving system performs the entire dynamic driving task. A dynamic driving task includes the operational (steering, braking, accelerating, monitoring the vehicle and roadway) and tactical (responding to events, determining when to change lanes, turn, use signals, etc.) aspects of the driving task, but not the strategic (determining destinations and waypoints) aspect of the driving task.

In both level 4 and 5 the system is entirely responsible for driving the car. That is, a human driver is not responsible for even fall-back performance in driving the car. As such both level 4 and 5 may be considered "Full-Self Driving" under certain circumstances.

The difference between level 4 and 5 is that with level 4 the car can self-drive in some driving modes and in level 5 it can self-drive in all driving modes. A driving mode is a type of driving scenario, such as highway driving versus driving on secondary streets, etc.

So with the Tesla qualification of "in almost all circumstances", they can legitimately claim that their vehicles have "Full Self-Driving Capability" if they can fully take over the driving responsibilities from a human in selected driving situations, such as high speed driving.

Larry

 

[geometro]

Tesla could have done a favor by offering the FSD for the same price at time of delivery or later (rather than the upcharge for later). This would have sucked for their revenue, but would have been good for the consumer.

I can't imagine being someone who paid $3k for nothing a year later.

 

[McRat]

I gave past examples of how experts, engineers would call Tesla a fraud for laying out its secret plan.

Anti-Tesla would say Tesla is unethical, ponzi scheme and fraud and it would die soon.

They have been wrong and today, they are still very wrong.

Tesla discloses its promise clearly pending on:

1) validations: with no timeline. May be once the turnover of the team is finished and it's stabilized, we might get a better feel of timeline for validations.

2) regulatory approvals: with no timeline.

For your example: I can cure your cancer but I clearly disclose:

1) only if human trials are successful and validated. Depend on the trial size, it may take years or decades. And after that it might not be successful.

2) only if with FDA approval: There are fast track for some rare compassionate case but most likely it's very lengthy.

So, the impossibility can be done but it is conditional.

Please! We need more people to deal with impossible problems rather than screaming at them for trying!

Uhh,,, OK let me try to describe this in different terms.

Please, I beg of you:

Tell all your friends, family, coworkers, boss, employees that your car goes 1000 miles without stopping, and next week it will drive itself from Southern Mexico to Alaska while you are sleeping. It carries 12 people easily, and tows up to 12,500lb. It's operational cost per mile is under 1 cent per mile, insurance is $200 a year for a million dollars of coverage, and you can get them at 1/2 MSRP. There are a million of them on the road, and not one has broken, ever. Several have millions of trouble-free miles. The resale is twice the purchase price, and the warranty is lifetime on everything. Say you've driven a 918 at the 'Ring and your car is 15 seconds quicker a lap without even trying.

It's not illegal. There is nothing stopping you. So why don't you? Go ahead and do it this week. Or tell us why you would don't feel comfy about it. I sure would feel shiity about ME saying it. And I certainly would never do it.

I do not care what brand or type or model of vehicle you use.

BTW - one of my favorite hobbys is doing things 'experts' say can't be done. I don't tell them I can do it someday. I demonstrate it at professional competitions in front of hundreds or sometimes thousands of people. I could do 3D complex surface analysis on a manual CMM using a 80286, and hit accuracies as good, if not better than vector-driven (DCC) automatic equipment costing 100 times as much.
I could figure out how to ID typo in technical data back when it was WordPerfect and DOS. Spell checkers were far in the distance.

There is nothing wrong with doing what experts say is impossible. It's wrong to claim you've done it already, or that you promise a delivery date for the impossible that you know cannot be met.

 

[shrspeedblade]

The impossible just takes a little longer. This is something a lot of people, including Elon, need to remember.

 

[3Victoria]

Tesla has said that early adopters are helping the effort with their funds. One can chose to buy FSD or not. If one doesn't want to wait further for FSD, request your money back ... you can always purchase at a later date. I find all the gnashing of teeth rather false. FSD is in the works, but no-one should expect a set time course for what is new research and development.

 

[Larry Chanin]

FSDC is $3K, not $8K.

Tesla has always stated that if you buy the FSDC option now the software is not yet released and that it is not possible for Tesla to predict when each element of FSDC will be availble due to differing laws in different localities. It says so right on the S/X configuration page.

Correct, it is true that Tesla has always been clear regarding the uncertainty of the the release of the Full Self-Driving software. However, it is also true that it will cost you $8,000 to get that capability when ordering from the factory because as the Design Studio states that you must purchase Advanced Autopilot for $5,000 first and then add the $3,000 for the future software and 4 additional cameras.

Larry

 

[whitex]

I think autopilot is the one area we can all agree Elon overpromises to the point of being a liar.

No excuse for it. No amount of rationalization can cover up the false statements.

No amount of rationalization? Come on, I think you may be underestimating some members on this forum which can rationalize anything Tesla has done (deliver two thirds of advertised power, deliver smaller batteries than speced, tell you how full proof and amazing blind side monitoring works, etc, etc). In this case it will be much simpler than you think. Any complaint you may have will be met with "you must have the old version of software" or "give it another year, Tesla is working as hard as they can". With the current set of disclaimers, the FSD is always coming "sooner than everyone thinks", every day you are one day closer, but you know, that pesky "software validation" and "government approval" is probably the reason, but Tesla never committed to a date, so you can't complain as long as Tesla has at least one engineer working on the problem.

PS> Maybe that is why Elon is pushing so hard for government regulation of AI, he says FSD is AI and more government regulation means you know, he can't let you use it.

 

[alcibiades]

The fact is, there has been no lack of development or any delays and its progress has been swift:

10/19/2016 Enhanced Autopilot Hardware Announced
12/31/2016 35 mph Autopilot to first 1,000 owners
2/5/2017 Autopilot increased to 45 mph, side collision warning (v8.0.17.5.28)
2/28/2017 Parallell AutoPark v8.0 (17.7.2)
3/9/2017 Autopilot incresed to 55 mph. v8.0 (17.9.3)
3/29/2017 Autopilot increased to 80 mph, summon. v8.1 (17.11.3)
5/6/2017 Autopilot increased to 90 mph, v8.1 (17.17.4)
6/10/2017 Perpendicular Parking v8.1 (17.22.46)

This extreme development is a significant improved fast pace comparing with the last AP1 that was announced in 10/9/2014 but its AutoSteer was never activated until more than a year later in 10/15/2015.

No offense, but your timeline actually supports the claim that they mislead buyers in Q4 2016. It explicitly details how there was no way EAP could be expected to be realized in December 2016. We are now in 8/17 and EAP is still lacking AP1 functions.

 

[whitex]

I think not even Musk believes his own FSD statements.
And I guess it`s not much fun having your boss give such impossible promises when you`re the one who has to fulfill them....

Of course he doesn't. If he did, he would have a golden sales lever to sell thousands more cars, all he has to say is "all Tesla's purchased with FSD will have their bumper-to-bumper warranty extended until 6 months after FSD delivers on all claims to ensure everyone can enjoy FSD problem free for at least 6 months". It would also shut anyone up who says Elon doesn't put him money where his mouth is.

 

[McRat]

... FSD is always coming "sooner than everyone thinks" ...

Naughty, naughty! That's a partial quote from Mary Barra when asked when autonomous cars will be released to the public.

I can't see how AV's need AI. There are lots of vehicle control systems without Intelligence, artificial or otherwise. I call them humans.

Seriously, if there was a big enough pair of Vise-Grips™, and with them you could pull the entire auto and IT industries craniums from their rectums, we would have 2018 full AV cars.

But in-fighting, duplication of effort, investor interests, etc, have delayed it tremendously.

All that was ever needed was V2V, geomapping, visual sign recognition. Pedestrians, cyclists, etc, would have to treat cars like trains.

V2V - cars will not interfere with other cars.
Geomapping - Cars will not hit solid immovable objects, and they will stay on the marked roadways.
Visual Sign Recognition - Stop at lights, stop signs, rail crossings, etc.

Done. Those technologies are off-the-shelf today.

 

[whitex]

Not sure on that. He's still responding to interviews in this last month saying he will demonstrate coast to coast FSD by the end of the year or early next year.

If this is covered live and Elon is in the back seat while there is no driver, we'd ourselves new reality show

 

[whitex]

But that does not mean Tesla is unethical in promising something impossible.

Taking money for something impossible to deliver is not unethical? You seems to have very unique set of ethics.

 

[oktane]

I have invented a flying Tesla. Please pay me $15,000 for performing the appropriate mods to your car. I will deliver it to you when I complete final validation. Thanks.