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Who & When will we get Model S VIN 100,000 !
- Thread starter joefee
- Start date
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Yes, the Delorean community as well as many other small-production cars (like the Bricklin) are very VIN-centric. For the Deloreans, we even have a VIN chronology that records when certain changes were made to the cars... and exactly like Tesla, many changes were made on the line without regard to model years or versions, etc... they were just necessary improvements. And again like Tesla, they aren't based on exact VIN cutoffs, some lower VIN cars have features that higher VINs don't have.
For example, a good friend of mine bought his Delorean brand new, and has never made any changes. He competes in Delorean Concours events. He lost first place a couple of times because his tail pipes are larger than what the factory records show should be the proper tailpipes for his VIN (larger pipes were a later change). But no matter how he tried to appeal/petition the judges, they still deducted points for having the "wrong" tailpipes. For Delorean Concours, the basic rule is "as it left the factory".
chriSharek
Member
Yes. My 2011 Volt is # 2445. The first 3,000 were memorialized with a VIN pop up on the start-up screen. Stephen King's VIN is 1317 if I remember correctly - I met him at one of the first charger installs in Sarasota.
Cyclone
Cyclonic Member ((.oO))
I can totally see small-production (relatively speaking) cars with deep followings being VIN-centric. Probably goes to show the different types of buyers in the Tesla market. As it moves more "mainstream", there will be more buyers who don't car, but a continued following of those who do. Personally, I don't car too much other than the running list of changes instead of model years, but I am very happy to see others are and love reading threads like this one as I learn more about our cars and Tesla as a company.
jvonbokel
John VonBokel
I just saw somebody post a VIN > 90k in another thread and thought I'd go write a post about #100,000 in the prod/delivery forum, but of course, this one was already here. I think with VINs in the 90k range and production at 10k+/quarter, it's pretty clear they'll hit the 100k mark in Q3. I would imagine that will elicit a blog post or at least a tweet. Perhaps a more difficult question at this point will be whether they'll make 100k Model S before the first X?
TomServo
Active Member
Hang out on a Corvette Forum. These folks obsess over VIN's. The right VIN can be worth TEN's of THOUSANDS of dollars, up to a quarter million of them.......
TomServo
Active Member
Excellent - all the more reason for me to hang onto my "vintage" P85 forever
It's all about the VIN, well the right VIN anyway.
https://roadtrippers.com/stories/na...arrett-jackson?lat=40.80972&lng=-96.67528&z=5
breser
AutoPilot Nostradamus
Honestly, this is all somewhat meaningless. The first VIN past 100,000 won't actually be the 100,000th Model S. VIN 100,000 might end up being the real 100,000th vehicle. But since vehicles are not built in sequence order and due to the fact that a number of sequence numbers were skipped due to the change in VIN formats in early 2015. The sequence numbers are arbitrarily higher than the actual production.
For what it's worth Tesla has only sold 78,299 Model S according to their own numbers up to the end of Q2 2015.
For what it's worth Tesla has only sold 78,299 Model S according to their own numbers up to the end of Q2 2015.
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HankLloydRight
No Roads
I think most people understand that VIN 100,000 doesn't equal the 100,000 cars made, but rather VIN 100000 is a fun, albeit rather arbitrary threshold to celebrate (like the millennium, etc). It's not so much fun to celebrate VIN 124485 as the actual 100,000th car made.
Also personally, I'd rather have VIN 100000 than 124485. But that's just me.
It does not necessary equal but:
- it is not too far off
- it is a nice symbolic figure
So, I'll tout VIN100k as 100k th car made. If I'm 1% wrong, I can live with that.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
breser
AutoPilot Nostradamus
I agree it's a nice symbolic figure. But I'm just trying to inject some realism here. If people want to be excited about the 100k rollover. That's fine. Just realize it's not attached to the actual production count.
Side not: There was an error in my spreadsheet (pointed out by someone who PM'ed me) that actually lowers the real count. I've updated my post above but we're down to 78,299 delivered vehicles because I'd put the produced number rather than delivered in Q1 2014.
Actual production count is a "poorly defined" term.
What about loaners, demo cars?
What about prototypes, release candidates?
What about cars produced and then scrapped as some major flaw was found?
What about cars ruined on the way to customer?
What about already totaled cars?
What about loaners that were sold to end customers after some time as CPO?
Etc.
One can limit himself to cars sold and delivered to end customers. But actual production will be somewhat higher than that.
So, I'm still sticking to VIN as 'cars produced' and not dealing with those pesky details of how, where, who, who for, what for, ...
breser
AutoPilot Nostradamus
Loaners and demo cars get sold to customers after 3 months as inventory cars. There may be some exceptions here for vehicles that Tesla has more interest in keeping E.G. the cross country cars that are being used as loaners but haven't been sold.
Prototypes and release candidates and scrapped vehicles I wouldn't count.
Cars ruined on the way to the customer is kinda iffy.
Totaled cars obviously count.
I'm only using delivered cars for the above because those are the consistent numbers I have. Tesla's production numbers have not been consistent reported or I'd use that.
The big problem here is that as we're nearing VIN 100k we're only nearing 80k delivered vehicles. So it seems like using sequence numbers as a proxy for produced cars is off by about 20%. That's a pretty big deal discrepancy. I think a lot of that was driven by all the cars that had sequence numbers reassigned when they switched formats. I suspect before that there wasn't that much discrepancy.
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