What other tech stock to consider?

[tander]

Another ridiculous example is the ongoing trials for motor neuron diseases. Nueralstem CUR (full disclosure I've invested in them, and I think it's a cool stock to consider although super volatile) posted results from their phase II trials earlier this year. Of the 10 or 15 people with ALS that participated, about half of them "responded" by slowing or halting the progression of the disease. But since it was only half of them and it was just a small phase II it wasn't considered statistically significant (it appears to work best in people that are younger and that are early in the progression of the disease, as with just about any treatment for anything, so it didn't work for the people that were too far along). But the baffling thing about it is that it's basically the first treatment for ALS that actually slows and/or halts/reverses the disease for any part of the patient population. So even if it only has 3 "responders' in the 15 person trial, that's pretty dang significant for a disease where basically nobody has ever responded to anything. If they chose only candidates that were all young and early in the disease progression they could probably claim a 99.9% responder rate.

 

[hirox]

sunrun IPO down 22%, anyone got an opinion on this company? RUN: Summary for - Yahoo! Finance

 

[Lump]

MBLY reports 2Q, beats EPS, beats revenues & raises guidance

Phil LeBeau ‏@Lebeaucarnews 53m53 minutes ago
High flying auto stocks shifting gears pre-market: $TSLA down 6% after cutting delivery guidance. $MBLY up 3% after raising EPS Guidance

 

[30seconds]

You'd be surprised to know how much dirty science is being done in the Pharma industry, to this day. They design their trials to show whatever they want, they do a lot of preliminary trials that are never registered anywhere, the "go fishing" for statistical significance, they do dodgy comparisons, the include and exclude patients in order to get the results they want.

If anyone is intereset PLEASE read the book by Danish Cochrance researcher Goetzhe. He says it like it is, and he is absolutely 100% correct:

Dr Peter Gøtzsche Exposes Big Pharma as Organized Crime

this is pure nonsense. The Nature article on unpublished trials as well. The Nature article included a fair amount of studies that were not actually sponsored by Pharma companies and also included trials on drugs that never reached the market. When looking at drugs that actually reached the market and sponsored by Pharma companies well over 80% are published.

Dr Goetzhe as cherry picks his data. If you want to see how much data the EMA has when assessing a new medicine go look up an assessment report for a recent approval. In addition each member state of the EU has full access to the reports and all raw data. In additon the EMA and FDA can, and do, conduct audits of the companies and clinical research organizations who conduct the studies. Plus, in the U.S., there is a very strong whistle blower program where Pharma employees would make millions of dollars for reporting this type of fraud.

it is all public. Go look.

Many people do not believe that there should be a profit motive to drive medical research. Fine. Up to them. Of course they have no viable solution to how to develop medical advances without such motive.

Of course with smaller companies and drugs that are not on the market there are ways to fleece investors out of their money, but that is true in most industries.

 

[Johan]

this is pure nonsense. The Nature article on unpublished trials as well. The Nature article included a fair amount of studies that were not actually sponsored by Pharma companies and also included trials on drugs that never reached the market. When looking at drugs that actually reached the market and sponsored by Pharma companies well over 80% are published.

Dr Goetzhe as cherry picks his data. If you want to see how much data the EMA has when assessing a new medicine go look up an assessment report for a recent approval. In addition each member state of the EU has full access to the reports and all raw data. In additon the EMA and FDA can, and do, conduct audits of the companies and clinical research organizations who conduct the studies. Plus, in the U.S., there is a very strong whistle blower program where Pharma employees would make millions of dollars for reporting this type of fraud.

it is all public. Go look.

Many people do not believe that there should be a profit motive to drive medical research. Fine. Up to them. Of course they have no viable solution to how to develop medical advances without such motive.

Of course with smaller companies and drugs that are not on the market there are ways to fleece investors out of their money, but that is true in most industries.

"Pure nonsense" - a bit harsh maybe? Let's be a bit more nuanced, shall we?

I'm not saying it's necessarily fraudulent in the sense that studys are directly decietful or falsified. And I'll agree with you that it's become a lot better in the last 10 years.

BUT I would claim that there is a systematic bias built in to the medical-pharma culture which systematically tends to overinterpret the positive effects of medication. I would also argue that there is definately a very basic problem of where the industry and companies that stand to benefit economically are the ones providing the underlying data as to whether their products are effective and safe. I believe the English translation of the proverb I'm thinking of is "to set the fox to keep the geese".

On the other hand I'm very aware of the fact that small and big pharma needs to get paid for their innovation and that market economy tends to be very positive with regards to innovation. I don't have the solution, only pointing out some obvious big problems with today's system.

 

[Chickenlittle]

as a physician i remember years ago trying to enroll a patient in a clinical trial of interferon for renal cell cancer treatment. the intake physician agreed that the patient met the inclusion criteria but refused the patient entry because "he sounded too sick" it was then that i realized for the first time the bias in these studies. by rejecting subjects that met the inclusion criteria because the researcher thought they would not do well, rendered the study useless since it was compared to historical controls.

that is not an isolated example. i trained at the institution that developed the APACHE scoring system. it is used to determine factors that predicted who would do worse in the ICU. when rounding with the attendings running the study, as an intern i would present the case. after the presentation the attendings would state more than three organ failures, hopeless situation and we would move on to the next patient. the patient would be left to be managed by the interns and residents without the attending or fellow input. the conclusion of the study will surprise you, anyone with evidence of three system organ failure did worse. their bias determined this to some degree. this grading system is still in use.

i have little faith in isolated studies. need to see a whole literature indicating results with replication by different clinical teams to trust

 

[heltok]

MBLY reports 2Q, beats EPS, beats revenues & raises guidance

Up 3%, then down 10% in 30minutes. Any ideas why it tanked?

 

[gene]

Up 3%, then down 10% in 30minutes. Any ideas why it tanked?

Sorry, no idea but I had sold 500 shares at $62 the other day and just bought them back at $55.

 

[Lump]

Just finished listening to the MBLY CC & walked away very confident & more bullish then ever, I didn't pick up an shares today becuase MBLY is already a large holding but now considering ITM LEAPS.

Stock is now up after hours, nice trading Gene.

 

[cluster]

Lump,
Can you provide a brief summary of MBLY CC?
Thanks

 

[Lump]

I didn't take notes so here goes...

Raised guidance for 2015 & very confident going forward.
Gross margins up to 48%, cash up, no debt.
Spain regulators seeing benefits in fuel efficiency & decrease in Co2
Added Volkswagen & number of models from OEM's
Engineers pounding on the door to work for MBLY
Never delivered a product late in 16 years...when asked about Tesla's autopilot, I got the impression don't blame us for Tesla over promising...high confidence in highway autopilot & future full autonomous approval with regulators.
They are the only supplier that offers all aspects for autonomous, from sensors to processor, algorithm & mapping database.

Mobileye Collision-Avoidance Technology Accelerates In Q2 MBLY - Investors.com

 

[gene]

I didn't take notes so here goes...

Raised guidance for 2015 & very confident going forward.
Gross margins up to 48%, cash up, no debt.
Spain regulators seeing benefits in fuel efficiency & decrease in Co2
Added Volkswagen & number of models from OEM's
Engineers pounding on the door to work for MBLY
Never delivered a product late in 16 years...when asked about Tesla's autopilot, I got the impression don't blame us for Tesla over promising...high confidence in highway autopilot & future full autonomous approval with regulators.
They are the only supplier that offers all aspects for autonomous, from sensors to processor, algorithm & mapping database.

Mobileye Collision-Avoidance Technology Accelerates In Q2 MBLY - Investors.com

Thank you Lump...

 

[Lump]

Mobileye price target raised to $77 from $70 at Citi & CLSA raises to $70, says buy on weakness.

Here is the CC transcript
Edited Transcript of MBLY earnings conference call or presentation 6-Aug-15 11:00am GMT - Yahoo Finance

 

[cluster]

Thanks Lump.

 

[nursebee]

Novavax Announces Positive Top-Line Data from Phase 2 RSV F-Protein Vaccine Clinical Trial in Older Adults
NVAX RSV success

 

[hockeythug]

Google always up to something.

Google on Monday announced a new corporate operating structure, creating a new company, Alphabet, that will count the Internet giant as a subsidiary. Sundar Pichai, currently a senior vice president, will become CEO of Google. Current chief executive Larry Page will take the same post at Alphabet.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/10/google-announces-plans-for-new-operating-structure.html

 

[Ocelot]

Novavax Announces Positive Top-Line Data from Phase 2 RSV F-Protein Vaccine Clinical Trial in Older Adults
NVAX RSV success

Stock is going crazy. It seems to always be the case with bio-tech. Still not great numbers, with respect to prevention. It is hard enough getting children to be vaccinated these days (majority of RSV infections) and when you tell parents it will prevent in 44% and decrease symptoms in 46%...well I am unsure.

 

[nursebee]

Stock is going crazy. It seems to always be the case with bio-tech. Still not great numbers, with respect to prevention. It is hard enough getting children to be vaccinated these days (majority of RSV infections) and when you tell parents it will prevent in 44% and decrease symptoms in 46%...well I am unsure.

Ocelot, I am not sure what info you read, but the stuff I read was great. RSV in elderly prevented/protected similarly or better than flu shots. And EVERYONE takes flu shots as suggested by CDC.
Additionally, the maternal RSV study, data not yet released, is about vaccinating the pregnant mother and then protecting the infant via antibody transfer- has nothing to do with vaccinating children.

This company is onto something.
Fidelity owns like 10% of shares-
NVAX Major Holders | Novavax, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

 

[Cattledog]

NVDA - Wouldn't Nvidia be a natural benefactor, both in reality and in the tailwinds of today's Morgan Stanley price upgrade based not only on Tesla's future but every other autmaker's attempts to catch up?

Do you think the engineers at Nvidia are telling the traditional automakers, "you know, it's a lot easier to implement this stuff in an electric car..."

 

[Lump]

Maybe its time for a seperate Autonomouse\ Auto pilot thread to be created.

Until then here is today Morgan Stanley's MBLY note...ATH