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Two year or three year lease

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I just got the figures comparing the two year and three year lease for my vehicle. The total down is only about $16 more for the 2 year lease and $14 less per month for the 2 year lease. I'm kinda leaning towards the three year in case the California rebates get approved and we can get that $2500.

The main reason why I might be inclined to go for the 2 year is that the main reason for me in getting the Tesla is the white HOV sticker in California, but that is currently set to expire in January 2019.

Which should I go with, the 2 year or 3 year?

Thanks in advance