TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:
I believe I have caught all the SpaceX posts of last night.

It is not appropriate for moderators to let hoi polloi know why they act as they do, but here is one time some reasons are shown, other than the obvious one of it being way off-topic.

• There is an extremely active "SpaceX" subforum, with threads directly treating this subject
• The regular posters there are significantly more attuned to and in general more knowledgeable of the subject than is a cross-section of this sub-forum's regulars
• It is thus disrespectful not only for others here, but there as well.

So go ahead and post - that's fine and absolutely encouraged, but do it where it is appropriate.

I should say the same for the BREXIT discussion as well - if you can't at least keep each and every post you make somehow directly relevant to TSLA, then go ahead and start up a dedicated thread. It is worthy of discussion, but it is clogging up this one.​

 

[neroden]

Personally I think it will play out mostly like Airbnb: Airbnb is replacing hotels and expanding tourism - a win-win effect. It didn't reduce individual ownership of homes in any measurable fashion I believe - it even expanded professional owners of homes bought for Airbnb purposes only.

It also hasn't reduced the hotel business meaningfully. Airbnb is mostly taking the "seasonal peaking" market from hotels, which really makes a lot of sense. Hotels don't want to build rooms which are only occupied a few days a year; traditionally they've just jacked prices way up on those peak days. Hotels are still providing, if you will, "baseload" guest room levels.

 

[SO16]

I was equally undecided... but finally planning on going for the 3rd option: keep the stock and get a loan to pay for the P3D. I am pretty sure the return on the stock I will not have to sell will more than offset the cost of the loan...

Wish I would have done this when I bought my S. Had I done so, those TSLA shares would have given me that S for free in less than 6 months.

 

[avoigt]

Interesting data point. AWD and P surprisingly high in Norway.


20h20 hours ago
Replying to @ValueAnalyst1

Exactly. According to an informal poll at the Norwegian EV forum, 48.8% of reservation holders will order LR AWD, 16.1% Performance, 14.3% MR and 8.9% SR

1. 
   20h20 hours ago
   Sample size and link?
   
   
   
2. 
   20h20 hours ago
   Small sample size, only 168 but by qualified responders https://elbilforum.no/forum/index.php?topic=42664.0 …
   
   ValueAnalyst on Twitter
   

 

[scaesare]

1. 4h4 hours ago
   Replying to @VickiSalvador @GalaktixTV
   1302... Wheels?
   
   
2. 
   4h4 hours ago
   Cars baby!!!

So they achieved 1302 cars before, the opposite shift did beat them and last night they made a high number that will be hard to beat. If that is as assumed the paint shop then I would predict there is no way to buffer the painted bodies but they process and deliver them.

Painting a high number can be S,3,X and there is no reason in my opinion to assume this to be only 3s.

From the other lady we learned the 3 production is running on high steam as well. All cars produced now should be ready to go into Q4 delivery.

If that is the case than the December production & delivery numbers will blow everybody out of the water.... Right now I hear a lot of predictions and calculations that Q4 will only be slightly above Q3. That may be too conservative ....

It's great to get this snapshot of the throughput numbers… and clearly she must be talking about 24 hr. periods.

I'm a bit confused by "shifts" though.. typically if you are running a plant more than 8-10 hours a day you do so by utilizing 2-3 shifts of workers.

So I don't quite get the competition between two shifts... each with numbers >1000?

 

[Fact Checking]

Limited, *tightly* geofenced self-driving could certainly happen earlier; I just don't think there's a business case for TaaS with narrow geofencing.

It would cover an economically very substantial subset of:

• Routine commercial delivery routes from producer X to logistics site Y and back, repeated ad nauseum.
• Routine commuting routes from home X to workplace Y.

More importantly, once a reasonably well working "seed" is established, it finances subsequent expansion via two channels:

• The income streams and margins will be ridiculous.
• The routes not supported yet allow commercial delivery customers to pay the expansion of the zone with their routes.

I.e. it's self-financing and the expansion is self-prioritizing. It might take decades to reach 99% coverage, but even 10% coverage is game changing in terms of economics of TaaS: 10% of the routes make up 50% of the vehicle miles driven.

 

[neroden]

For all these reasons the 2025 corporate bonds (no equity conversion features) are particularly illiquid, they can only be traded by big institutional investors

Tesla actually issued them under a regulation which means they can literally only be traded by large institutions -- "qualified institutional buyers". (Banks, insurance companies, and pension funds.) Unusual. You can't buy them as an individual, it's illegal to. Corporations engaged in other lines of business can't buy them. Pension funds investing less than $100 million can't buy them.

As a result, they have very thin trading.

and it's not uncommon to see just a few (less than 10) transactions per day. Those few who are selling are selling because they must, under pressure for reasons unrelated to Tesla - creating a buyer's market with artificially low prices.

 

[mongo]

It's great to get this snapshot of the throughput numbers… and clearly she must be talking about 24 hr. periods.

I'm a bit confused by "shifts" though.. typically if you are running a plant more than 8-10 hours a day you do so by utilizing 2-3 shifts of workers.

So I don't quite get the competition between two shifts... each with numbers >1000?

The shift is doing the equivalent of 1300 (or whatever) per day. So if both shifts are >1,300 then the factory is >1,300 in a physical day. Alternatively, in two of their 12 hour shifts (3 on,4 off,4 on ,3 off schedule), they are producing 1,300 split between two days.

 

[Fact Checking]

It's great to get this snapshot of the throughput numbers… and clearly she must be talking about 24 hr. periods.

I'm a bit confused by "shifts" though.. typically if you are running a plant more than 8-10 hours a day you do so by utilizing 2-3 shifts of workers.

So I don't quite get the competition between two shifts... each with numbers >1000?

I believe they have 12 hour shifts and almost 100% utilization in the paint shop. Note how her numbers are always even, i.e. they are doubling the shift record by two to get the 24h figure.

 

[Hogfighter]

It's great to get this snapshot of the throughput numbers… and clearly she must be talking about 24 hr. periods.

I'm a bit confused by "shifts" though.. typically if you are running a plant more than 8-10 hours a day you do so by utilizing 2-3 shifts of workers.

So I don't quite get the competition between two shifts... each with numbers >1000?

I believe she is counting back 24 hours cumulatively. Which if that # increases that means their 12 hour shift ‘beat’ the previous shift’s #.

 

[neroden]

Routine commercial delivery routes from producer X to logistics site Y and back, repeated ad nauseum.

True for commercial routes. They might get permission to do this.

Routine commuting routes from home X to workplace Y.

Transport as a Service doesn't work for commuting routes anyway. As has been pointed out before, commuting hours are peak car usage hours, so it ends up putting the same number of cars on the road as if everyone owned a private car, and then sits idle the rest of the day. Not useful.

 

[Tslynk67]

We’re going for a lr awd. The car will be mainly driven by my wife, so she gets to choose the colors and such, which is why we want to see it in real life. It is sooo tempting to go for a P, but I think it will be more fun to keep that 10k extra in TSLA stock or options.

Indeed, I won't touch my $TSLA for buying a Tesla, I can afford the lease in my company while the SP doubles, triples, quadruples, etc...

 

[Unpilot]

Market action/ This could be a rough day for the macro's and I fear it will drag Tesla down.
Might be hard to find buyer's in this environment.

 

[dhrivnak]

At hilly red lights, I balance my car with the accelerator instead of braking. I bet it makes other people google about Tesla, plus it’s fun

I would advise against that as an electric motor in stall mode builds up heat FAST. Very similar to feathering a clutch in a manual transmission. Sure it works but you will be buying a clutch every 5,000 miles.

 

[Dynastar]

Torque steer is mostly about having half shafts of different lengths, though in absolute terms anything that affects the balance of mass being spun by the differential matters. I suspect a front wheel drive Tesla would have almost no noticeable torque steer since the smaller motor/gearbox combo (vs typical ICE motor/transmission) should be far easier to center and balance the unit for minimal torque steer.

I don't know what Tesla can pull off, but the FWD Leaf has a heck of a torque steer when you floor it.

 

[Tslynk67]

Why would you burn money like that when you cannot meet demand?

Put it into the service centers instead.

Could be crowd-funded by investors...

 

[mongo]

I would advise against that as an electric motor in stall mode builds up heat FAST.

A stalled motor is completely different that a controlled motor like the Tesla.
Stalled has full voltage applied and no back EMF, thus max current. The Tesla inverter is applying only enough power to counter gravity, no different than moving. Also the Tesla is liquid cooled, not air cooled, so that is better also.

 

[neroden]

OT Brexit

OT Brexit
It's already certain that it was a bad move: with Brexit the U.K. gave up a privileged position in a large single market for nothing in exchange. The U.K. already had its own currency and issued debt in its own currency, so it was isolated from the worst aspects of the design flaws of the Eurozone and was in a perfect position to reap all the benefits.

True.

The probable economic consequences of Brexit in 2019 or in 2021: a crash in the value of the Pound,

This is good...

a GDP shrinkage of at least 10%, much more if indexed against external currencies.

If this is in the financial industry, it's fine; that's fake GDP. UK was the tax evasion headquarters of the world.

Widespread bankruptcies or consolidation under duress in the over-sized British financial sector which will shrink in ~half.

Needed to happen anyway.

The British economy will eventually recover in 5-10 years because the weakness of the Pound will eventually make exports cheap enough, but living standards will drop significantly.

Doubt it.

If the Tories execute the Brexit they'll be done for a generation politically

We can hope, but they seem to come back like cockroaches. The Tories recovered from actually sending troops in to kill peaceful protesters in the 1810s and 1820s -- and they recovered quickly. In the US, the Republican Party recovered from Watergate, the Vietnam War, the secret invasion of Cambodia, and Kent State. Quickly. It really, really shouldn't have, but there are a lot of awful people out there who vote.

Also, to add insult to injury, the U.K. citizens who will be disproportionately affected by the costs of a Brexit (young people) voted overwhelmingly against Brexit...

I believe this is going to be the biggest effect. It's going to wreck lives which were built on the freedom of travel within the EU and the people affected will be absolutely furious forever.

So this will be an injustice remembered for generations and squarely attached to the Tories.

Which doesn't mean the Tories won't come back into power in 10 years. :-(

 

[Tslynk67]

At hilly red lights, I balance my car with the accelerator instead of braking. I bet it makes other people google about Tesla, plus it’s fun

This is one of the benefits that isn't well know, the very fine throttle-control that you get with a Tesla. You can floor it at the red lightsn crawl along at 1mph, edge the car 1inch, it's really cool once you get used to it.

$TSLA back into the pre-market red, but everything else even more so.

 

[EVNow]

Big drop in TSLA and macros just before open. Now at $355 (down 1%). Nasdaq down 1.8%.