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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Oh, it absolutely is.

To directly answer your questions:

1. Depends on your definition of fast charge. AFAIK there'll be one CHAdeMO at each site, and a mix of 50, 150, and 350 kW CCS. So, if a car has CHAdeMO or CCS, it should be able to charge it. However, many cars won't be able to take the station's full power.
2. Who knows about maintenance... cost to charge, as I understand, is meant to be comparable to gasoline costs, which is much higher than Supercharging.
3. Considering that this is a compliance charging network, I have to think none.

Based on #2 I think it would be funny if Tesla started posting their charging costs like gas stations do outside of some well placed Superchargers, so that other EV drivers get jealous of the pricing.
 
I get your point, but you remember all of the difficulties Mercedes had with their first SUV's, the M models? It was major, and I foresee something similar with the battery vehicles as well. One of the reasons may very well be the batteries themselves. While some of these big OEM's may have had battery powered (or hybrid) cars previously, let's see how they compare using LG or other batteries. They may be farther ahead in manufacturing body parts and assemblies, but Tesla has them beat when it comes to battery assemblies and motors and lessons learned.

Time will tell my friend, that's for sure, but suffice it to say, it's going to be an interesting ride for the next few years and I think we've picked the right horse to bet on.
do I remember.. those were MY problems.!!! ;-). to be fair, it was the first German manufacturing plant outside of Germany EVER at the time. Yes, it was hard, and it was also a workforce issue. But, after a few iterations and months of trials things got pretty sorted. First model too, that's always hard.

Don't forget, Daimler as an example had a partnership with Tesla since YEARS ago. they had done a lot of technology sharing and that went into the B class (let along the Electric Smart). So, for Daimler (which isn't really in my mix of NA BEV's to watch) I don't see them tripping over too many hurdles.
 
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What would happen to the Japanese production capacity for those old cells when they switch to the new Gigafactory cells for Model S and X? In this battery constrained world it would be a pity for Tesla to give up on that capacity. It’s still very useful for storage.
My guess is that they grow GF1 (and perhaps other later GF's) fast enough to have an "oversupply" (once TE is properly scaled up some it should eat any "oversupply", it just takes time to switch a given cell line from vehicle to TE cell formulation, so you can't switch rapidly between them, will need a big enough production buffer to prevent any slowdowns in production for either), and then switch S and X to use the 2170 cells once they're done with 18650. Panasonic will have wound down 18650 operations for Tesla in Japan accordingly, and either switch to non-Tesla formulations for other customers or rebuild the cell lines using 2170 equipment and build more 2170's there. Perhaps this could be an initial supply of cells to GF3? Depends on timing for how fast GF3 goes up vs S/X switch to 2170 whether it makes sense to build 2170 cell lines at GF3 before or after 18650 production is wound down in Japan. Could also be that Panasonic transitions the Japan facility to something entirely different (non-Tesla, non-18650).
 
I think this might be the only option... It sucks because it will be the 2nd time I've been caught out... at least for now its just a $15/share loss instead of $30...
So, doing a little "save my trade", I think you might look to buy back the weeklies, hoping for some small pull back in the AM tomorrow. It's going to cost you 20$ (or less), so maybe do only on some of the position. From there, I'd do a sell of probably the Nov 310$ calls trading about 10$.. Could be HIGHER tomorrow. you'll pay out <10$ to get yourself clear, but you'll be buying back another 15$ (swapping out the 295$ for the 310$) upside if you get called away later in the month, so you'd net out at least 5$ more than now. And, between now and Nov expiration things could stay flat or move lower. Can you get margin for the options buy back? Or put in some capitol? Or sell something else in the account?
 
2ksq02.jpg

Darmok and Jilad. When the shorts squeezed.
 
Why do some people put “not an advice” on their posts? Is there some sort of mandatory disclaimer for financial advisors posting on discussion boards? Also why not just say “not advice”. Sorry if this is a stupid question. * Not an apology.

Not a stupid question. I'm a relative newbie, but the "not an advice" is partially to tweak people's noses. This was discussed... recently? Sometime in the last month or so. That spawned a few other "tweaks", like this whole post being a rather mute point, or did I just beg the question :eek:

Sometimes people feel like putting a disclaimer for whatever reason that made sense to them at the moment. And sometimes its just having fun :p
 
The article on the front page of TMC has some interesting comments. For some reason I hadn't connected the dots that the lemur might have a completely different motor. That opens the door to the possibility it helps evade the production limit they were hitting for awd. Other than the article seems to argue that the gross profit is nearly the exact same as the lr rwd, which would be absurdly bullish if true.. I doubt it's true.

The difference in top speed and acceleration may just be due to current limits from the reduced-cell battery. Though it would be an interesting twist of the SR was intended to use a lower power motor and those were ready but the SR packs weren't so they decided to build hybrid "MR" with SR motor/inverter and cell-reduced LR architecture pack (as MR pack).

The MR specs are about the same acceleration but reduced top speed from SR, and I just assumed that the SR pack would have less oomph and the MR pack does too, but maybe the cell reduction method to make a MR on LR architecture actually ends up with less peak power for less top speed than the SR. If that's the case, perhaps it would explain the MR having a lower top speed than the SR, even if they used the same motor. Of course, we might just see the top speed of the SR reduced too.

I always assumed SR would use same motor as LR simply because it's one less part variation to deal with. I hadn't ever really considered it plausible they'd build a smaller one. But perhaps at this scale, the cost savings per unit outweigh the additional overhead and logistics of having another part variation.
 
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My options account is up 500% today so there’s that....

What a fun week this is turning out to be.

Hopefully we get a 3rd punch and go to the moon via some Saudi business deal leak.
I'd consider any Saudi business (no matter the scale) to be somewhat of a poisoned chalice currently. Even if it turns out that MBS had nothing to do with the murder in Turkey, and it was some mid-level spook who decided to do it, and all those responsible were appropriately sacked / imprisoned / etc tomorrow morning, nobody is going to look good doing any business with KSA for a while yet.

If there is a Saudi deal of some kind coming, I am hoping it is just an agreement to sell them a ton of storage or solar or whatever, not some kind of joint business venture or building a factory (even if wholly owned) in KSA.
 
I'm going to just toss this out there... its AH, right?

This forum has been incredibly helpful. It not only has provided insight into $TSLA and Tesla, but also into investing generally. I have specifically benefited from (not an) advice here. Both in a financial and avoiding stress way. The knowledge and the caring are both wonderful.

In fact, the helpfulness is so broad that the idea of enumerating those that have helped me seems rather silly. I try to provide my perspective (and a bit of levity) as some small compensation, but truly, there's no way to properly thank you all. Still, I feel it is worth the attempted expression.

Thanks! :)
 
If there is a Saudi deal of some kind coming, I am hoping it is just an agreement to sell them a ton of storage or solar or whatever, not some kind of joint business venture or building a factory (even if wholly owned) in KSA.

Why not? Say TSLA recieves 0% loan from them to build GF4 there, what's wrong with that? (plus maybe tax incentives)
It will obviously speed up the EV adoption and afterall, that's probably the core TSLA mission.
 
Personally, I think they are trying to tell a story the SEC that they only just learned this, so that the SEC doesn't go after them for the previous spreading of negative news and driving down of the stock price. The SEC doesn't have to seriously believe them, they just have to make a plausible enough claim that the SEC won't take them to court over it.
That's why the other shorts need to file a class action lawsuit against Citron. Really, they should.
 
I watch this stuff because the people that link it I respect. But man these people in the videos just stammer and struggle to admit there is a MASSIVE sea change coming.

It's like the titanic they cant change course...they just can't.

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They say look at the numbers, always.

The marketing numbers are staggering. Staggering. If you were to put on a Tesla PPV event and were tracking interest to establish a buy rate, Tesla/Elon would be near record buy rate when the event happened.

There is a tremendous buzz around Elon and the brand online, and where do people buy Teslas?

Exactly. Not a car lot in Detroit. They are getting *a lot* of publicity online and the positive response is something any company on the planet would pay millions to have a fraction.

I would love to see the metric of Elon “likes” to reservation/order rate online.
 
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