TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[gora321]

Most of Teslas R&D is located in Fremont or Palo Alto which belong to the San Franciso bay area. That is in California. The region is also called Silicon Valley, because they know how to build software and high tech stuff there. It's about 20 miles away from the VW Electronics Research Lab which has been opened in 1998. It's also about 20 miles from Porsches Santa Clara R&D Center. All of those places are about 9300 km from Stuttgart-Zuffenhausen, where they know how to build cars. Glad i could help and answer your question. You are welcome!

So where is the problem not to lead as Tesla?

 

[dqd88]

It makes no sense. They say the hardware is all on the car - if so, the upgrade is all software - minimal marginal/distribution cost - so why offer to some but not to others.

The only possibility that seems likely to me is that they have hit a big enough snag that they are withdrawing for both new and existing FSD. If it's true they're removing FSD from existing accounts, that would be supportive evidence.

The hardware is there. But they need to upgrade the chip. Offering free upgrade to existing owners.
It's a work in progress.

 

[Fact Checking]

so they have the chip coming out but are giving up on the software?

Yeah. NVIDIA's valuation more than tripled when they introduced their AI chip two years ago.

But, according to the badly failing Tesla short thesis [*], it's going to bankwupt Tesla!!

No matter what Tesla does, shorts have a negative interpretation for it - it's almost as if their income depended on people being pessimistic about Tesla's future.

[*] The Tesla short thesis is badly failing in the sense of TSLA shorts have already burned through twice as much cash over the last 10 years trying to destroy Tesla, compared to the money Tesla 'burned' through building hot new products in the same time period. I do admit that the Tesla short thesis does deliver a lot of bang for the bucks in terms of free entertainment value though, for example what would the Shortsville Times be without Tesla shorts!

 

[YasB]

read the article genius

I did. It said that infrastructure in germany is lacking, but would be required for self-driving cars and other stuff. It's talking about deploying cars in the field, not R&D. Now please enlighten me, how gora321 made a valid point with his remark that Tesla is not located in Detroit but Silicon Valley, since that was what i replied to. Maybe read and understand the article before you answer smartish guy?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Worth recollecting, I feel, the story from a couple weeks ago that Tesla are building their own car carriers. I've heard some dissatisfaction that the Bloomberg tracker had stalled on 4,200 model 3 per week.
The car carriers are a strong clue that the ramp up continues, at a pace that local car carrying companies cannot keep up with.
I mean, they've been getting the cars out to date without their own trailers; the new trailers mean more capacity required imminently.

 

[Tslynk67]

Or as we say in U.K. "I'll get me coat".

"Anyone fancy a pint?"

 

[Tslynk67]

I still have the option to buy FSD in my Model X management screen - I'm AP2.0:

 

[avoigt]

Most of Teslas R&D is located in Fremont or Palo Alto which belong to the San Franciso bay area. That is in California. The region is also called Silicon Valley, because they know how to build software and high tech stuff there. It's about 20 miles away from the VW Electronics Research Lab which has been opened in 1998. It's also about 20 miles from Porsches Santa Clara R&D Center. All of those places are about 9300 km from Stuttgart-Zuffenhausen, where they know how to build cars. Glad i could help and answer your question. You are welcome!

If they know how to build cars where is their equivalent of the Model 3?

 

[FS_FRA]

My take on the FSD removal is that they are ready with the new chip, and they are simply limiting those people who will need to have a (free) hardware update when the time comes. Considering EM timeframe of 6 months for the new hardware, "flushing" out orders with the old hardware now makes perfect sense.

And I'm sure they will come up with a positive solution for those that a) ordered and paid for FSD but have yet to receive their car, and b) those that really want FSD now* (see his tweet on that).

*although on this: why???

 

[Fact Checking]

NASDAQ pre-market trading: nice little jump to $267 (on low volume), against the NASDAQ futures trend which are currently dropping.

Shorts will probably have to work the price hard to reach their desired closing price on Options Friday.

There's a lot of PUT options expiring today, more than 261,000 contracts, 26.1 million shares-equivalent:

2018/Oct/19:  PUTs:   261,576 ; CALLs:   155,046

 PUT $ 25: 22,228, CALL $ 25:      2
 PUT $ 30:  4,582, CALL $ 30:      0
 PUT $ 35:  5,028, CALL $ 35:      0
 PUT $ 40:  6,469, CALL $ 40:      0
 PUT $ 45:  4,604, CALL $ 45:      0
 PUT $ 50: 67,499, CALL $ 50:      2
 PUT $ 55:    343, CALL $ 55:      0
 PUT $ 60:    572, CALL $ 60:      8
 PUT $ 65:    243, CALL $ 65:      0
 PUT $ 70:    964, CALL $ 70:      0
 PUT $ 75:  6,029, CALL $ 75:      0
 PUT $ 80:    356, CALL $ 80:      9
 PUT $ 85:    824, CALL $ 85:      0
 PUT $ 90:  1,134, CALL $ 90:      0
 PUT $ 95:  1,073, CALL $ 95:      0
 PUT $100:  9,592, CALL $100:      1
 PUT $105:    521, CALL $105:      0
 PUT $110:    605, CALL $110:      1
 PUT $115:    442, CALL $115:      0
 PUT $120:  2,117, CALL $120:      1
 PUT $125:  1,535, CALL $125:      0
 PUT $130:  1,735, CALL $130:      1
 PUT $135:  1,225, CALL $135:      0
 PUT $140:  1,448, CALL $140:      3
 PUT $145:    832, CALL $145:      1
 PUT $150:  6,214, CALL $150:      5
 PUT $155:    637, CALL $155:      0
 PUT $160:  1,247, CALL $160:      1
 PUT $165:  1,126, CALL $165:      0
 PUT $170:  2,719, CALL $170:      4
 PUT $175:  4,939, CALL $175:     11
 PUT $180:  4,032, CALL $180:      4
 PUT $185:  1,052, CALL $185:     11
 PUT $190:  1,739, CALL $190:     12
 PUT $195:  1,069, CALL $195:      5
 PUT $200: 11,079, CALL $200:    268
 PUT $205:  2,173, CALL $205:     24
 PUT $210:  1,899, CALL $210:      6
 PUT $215:  2,093, CALL $215:     26
 PUT $217:    125, CALL $217:      0
 PUT $220:  2,924, CALL $220:    254
 PUT $222:    129, CALL $222:      5
 PUT $225:  2,889, CALL $225:    107
 PUT $227:    286, CALL $227:     27
 PUT $230:  2,588, CALL $230:    141
 PUT $232:    360, CALL $232:     65
 PUT $235:  1,414, CALL $235:     57
 PUT $237:    322, CALL $237:     40
 PUT $240:  4,693, CALL $240:    123
 PUT $242:    641, CALL $242:    438
 PUT $245:  1,825, CALL $245:    168
 PUT $247:  1,104, CALL $247:    458
 PUT $250:  8,137, CALL $250:  1,009
 PUT $252:  1,423, CALL $252:    456
 PUT $255:  2,676, CALL $255:    674
 PUT $257:  1,918, CALL $257:  1,308
 PUT $260:  4,199, CALL $260:  1,811
 PUT $262:  1,039, CALL $262:  1,022
 PUT $265:  2,191, CALL $265:  1,699
 PUT $267:    607, CALL $267:  1,157
 PUT $270:  4,467, CALL $270:  5,403
 PUT $272:    413, CALL $272:  1,671
 PUT $275:  3,060, CALL $275:  4,621
 PUT $277:    523, CALL $277:  2,283
 PUT $280:  3,791, CALL $280:  6,689
 PUT $282:    260, CALL $282:  3,356
 PUT $285:  1,120, CALL $285:  3,667
 PUT $287:    202, CALL $287:    953
 PUT $290:  2,117, CALL $290:  7,042
 PUT $292:    314, CALL $292:    963
 PUT $295:  1,157, CALL $295:  2,157
 PUT $297:    290, CALL $297:    758
 PUT $300:  5,402, CALL $300:  8,825
 PUT $302:    462, CALL $302:    921
 PUT $305:    684, CALL $305:  1,859
 PUT $307:    345, CALL $307:  1,233
 PUT $310:  2,890, CALL $310:  5,747
 PUT $312:    116, CALL $312:    684
 PUT $315:    381, CALL $315:  2,303
 PUT $317:     84, CALL $317:    586
 PUT $320:    504, CALL $320:  5,007
 PUT $325:    487, CALL $325:  6,191
 PUT $330:    835, CALL $330:  5,186
 PUT $335:     76, CALL $335:  1,238
 PUT $340:  1,641, CALL $340:  4,700
 PUT $345:    100, CALL $345:    839
 PUT $350:  1,603, CALL $350:  9,866
 PUT $355:     43, CALL $355:  2,363
 PUT $360:    367, CALL $360:  4,306
 PUT $365:    428, CALL $365:    846
 PUT $370:    574, CALL $370:  1,540
 PUT $375:     39, CALL $375:  1,184
 PUT $380:    280, CALL $380:  2,359
 PUT $385:    225, CALL $385:    796
 PUT $390:    207, CALL $390:  1,601
 PUT $395:     17, CALL $395:    613
 PUT $400:    160, CALL $400:  4,676
 PUT $405:     50, CALL $405:    382
 PUT $410:    180, CALL $410:  2,188
 PUT $415:     25, CALL $415:    930
 PUT $420:    114, CALL $420:  2,584
 PUT $425:      3, CALL $425:    491
 PUT $430:      9, CALL $430:    545
 PUT $435:      7, CALL $435:    656
 PUT $440:      5, CALL $440:    651
 PUT $445:      0, CALL $445:    250
 PUT $450:      9, CALL $450:  1,527
 PUT $455:      0, CALL $455:    201
 PUT $460:      0, CALL $460:  1,261
 PUT $465:      0, CALL $465:    200
 PUT $470:      0, CALL $470:    200
 PUT $475:      0, CALL $475:    130
 PUT $480:      0, CALL $480:    478
 PUT $485:      0, CALL $485:     11
 PUT $490:      0, CALL $490:    420
 PUT $495:      0, CALL $495:     26
 PUT $500:      0, CALL $500:  1,075
 PUT $505:      0, CALL $505:    114
 PUT $510:      0, CALL $510:    369
 PUT $515:      0, CALL $515:      3
 PUT $520:      1, CALL $520:    182
 PUT $525:      0, CALL $525:     50
 PUT $530:      0, CALL $530:    165
 PUT $540:      1, CALL $540:    412
 PUT $550:      0, CALL $550:  1,730
 PUT $560:      0, CALL $560:  3,959
 PUT $570:      0, CALL $570:    665
 PUT $580:      0, CALL $580:    523
 PUT $590:      0, CALL $590:    423
 PUT $600:      0, CALL $600:  4,710
 PUT $610:      0, CALL $610:      0
 PUT $620:      0, CALL $620:     10
 PUT $630:      0, CALL $630:      0
 PUT $640:      0, CALL $640:      1
 PUT $650:      0, CALL $650:  1,067

About 60% of those PUTs are failed bankwuptcy dreams.

 

[FS_FRA]

I still have the option to buy FSD in my Model X management screen - I'm AP2.0:

View attachment 345145

Definitely gone from the German configuration site (S/X)

 

[dqd88]

It said that infrastructure in germany is lacking,

That's your take away?... You seemed to have skipped the first paragraph:

Porsche fears that Germany's slow roll out of fifth-generation mobile phone technology could threaten the domestic auto industry's competitiveness and profitability in the next decade.

 

[YasB]

If they know how to build cars where is their equivalent of the Model 3?

You seem to imply, that everbody not building a Model 3 like car today, is not able to build cars, since the Model 3 is the one to compare everything against. To seriously answer your question, i would have to share that assumption, which is something i do not do.

 

[Huskyf]

No more Full Self Driving option on S/X I thing they want to change name or something before appear again ?

 

[Fact Checking]

And I'm sure they will come up with a positive solution for those that a) ordered and paid for FSD but have yet to receive their car, and b) those that really want FSD now* (see his tweet on that).

*although on this: why???

Yeah, Tesla always honored past options and pricing promises.

The 1 week 'off menu' availability is probably to give people a chance to future-proof their Teslas for HW3 for $3,000, before they raise the FSD option price.

Tesla also probably got a much higher take-rate of FSD orders in the past few months and Elon made it clear that HW3 upgrade was included, and wanted to reduce the amount of service work required for HW3 upgrades. When you are selling 80k+ cars per quarter and say 30% of your orders include FSD currently, that's a significant overhead for an already over-strained service network...

 

[Tslynk67]

Must be a legal thing due to that class-action...

 

[YasB]

That's your take away?... You seemed to have skipped the first paragraph:

Porsche fears that Germany's slow roll out of fifth-generation mobile phone technology could threaten the domestic auto industry's competitiveness and profitability in the next decade.

Please read past the first paragraph, where the only points made to strengthen that argument refer to the deployment of vehicles and how they cannot generate revenue from digital services, when people are lacking reliable connectivity while driving. If you disagree and should be of the opinion, that the slow rollout of 5G in Germany is hindering Porsches R&D, please explain how.

 

[FS_FRA]

Must be a legal thing due to that class-action...

Could be....his somewhat cryptic tweet "...causing too much confusion..." might be an indicator....

 

[Fact Checking]

You seem to imply, that everbody not building a Model 3 like car today, is not able to build cars, since the Model 3 is the one to compare everything against. To seriously answer your question, i would have to share that assumption, which is something i do not do.

That's a combination of conjecture, wishful thinking and misrepresentation on your part: after 10 years of empty promises the traditional ICE automotive industry has yet to demonstrate a single competitive product on the level of the Model 3, let alone broadly available options that could meaningfully compete with Tesla on quality, price and volume.

The current track record of most ICE OEMs is that they are able to build ICE power trains and outsource pretty much everything else, and they also have an uncanny ability to engage in emissions tests fraud to poison millions of people for profits.

Neither of these qualities has any market value in the post-ICE world.

 

[YasB]

So where is the problem not to lead as Tesla?

The answer depends on what kind of criteria you apply to define leadership. I'd probably point to willingness, a different judgement of the market, economic situation and customer base and not to a lack of capabilities.