TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

There's an interesting development for tomorrow's and next two week's $TSLA options expiries: CALLs (long bets) now outnumber PUTs (short best) significantly, which has not happened for a long time.

Here's the total open interest change over the last 3 days:

-2018/Sep/28:  PUTs:    44,493 ; CALLs:    53,359
+2018/Sep/28:  PUTs:    53,697 ; CALLs:    60,029

-2018/Oct/05:  PUTs:    19,987 ; CALLs:    22,651
+2018/Oct/05:  PUTs:    26,907 ; CALLs:    31,802

-2018/Oct/12:  PUTs:     8,518 ; CALLs:    16,073
+2018/Oct/12:  PUTs:    10,652 ; CALLs:    17,431

This signals bullish expectations for the Q3 delivery report and the weeks following it, especially considering that the historic PUT/CALL ratio is 2:1, not 1:1.

November (release of the Q3 financial report) is still bearish:

2018/Nov/16:  PUTs:    76,144 ; CALLs:    42,091

But this might change if Q3 deliveries are good, and the open interest could become large enough to have a direct effect on the stock price and cause a rally before the Q3 financials are released on November 1/2.

January next year is still super bearish:

2019/Jan/18:  PUTs:   461,375 ; CALLs:   211,001

Those are, overwhelmingly, short bets made before the recent profitability guidance. So Q4 delivery numbers and the following expiry of half a million PUTs (which are 50 million TSLA shares equivalent) could start another rally.

Of course it could go in the other direction as well if Q3 and/or Q4 is a disappointment.

It's so freakin' goddamn complicated. Whatever happened to buying shares, putting them in the attic until you retire, then cashing-in?

 

[Jayjs20]

It's so freakin' goddamn complicated. Whatever happened to buying shares, putting them in the attic until you retire, then cashing-in?

In my case, it's uber greed. Back when it was 260, you can either buy shares and wait for it to hit 520 to double your money, or you can buy LEAPs and wait for 330 to double your money.

 

[KarenRei]

It's so freakin' goddamn complicated. Whatever happened to buying shares, putting them in the attic until you retire, then cashing-in?

You still can do that. Options are for if you find the stock to not be high enough risk/reward for your taste And if you don't mind owning financial products that the company's management doesn't give a rat's arse about (they care about long-term stockholders... not options traders).

I'm sometimes tempted by options, but it's hard enough for me to even convince myself to sell on a high in order to buy on a low. It's a pretty risky stock already, and I have a limited investment horizon at present. Can't let myself get too overexposed.

Plus, it's hard enough to even buy and sell US stocks at all here in Iceland...

 

[Fact Checking]

Plus, it's hard enough to even buy and sell US stocks at all here in Iceland...

So why not open an account with an U.S. broker? Plenty of them accept foreign, non-resident retail clients. A quick googling suggests that IB is one of them and appears to list Iceland:

Available Countries | Interactive Brokers

 

[Scuttlebutt]

Question to the forum members from an investing newbie who has just bought and held since early 2014.
What % of shares do you estimate you have gain/loss from buying highs/selling lows? I have never done it before and am reading everything I can from this great group trying to prepare for the next run-up. Hoping over the next few years I can add another 100% or more to my (small) position...how realistic is this scenario without jumping into the options game? Appreciate any and all advice!

 

[Tslynk67]

In my case, it's uber greed. Back when it was 260, you can either buy shares and wait for it to hit 520 to double your money, or you can buy LEAPs and wait for 330 to double your money.

Or lose it all... Right?

 

[Jayjs20]

Or lose it all... Right?

Right. I've gained and lost 50k+ in the span of weeks so many times that I've become numb to it.

 

[YasB]

BTW., while the large number of PUT options explains the downside volatility, it does not explain why the short interest goes down as the stock rises.

I'd suppose thats simply because some shorts cover when the stock rises again? Not all of us are betting on a bankruptcy and are convinced something bad must happen any day now. I have repeatedly sold most of my position somewhere below 300 to buy it back at higher prices. I just make sure i keep some of it, you know, just in case something bad happens any day now.

 

[BenPrice]

It's so freakin' goddamn complicated. Whatever happened to buying shares, putting them in the attic until you retire, then cashing-in?

I do both.

My long term is untouchable and I add to it when I can.

That’s retirement.

My option account is much lower in value but much more fun day to day.

It’s super fun to earn a 2 week paycheck from 830am to 835am.

 

[STARR X]

Nice example of improving sentiment: Ars covers the Bloomberg report of Panasonic expanding capacity at Giga, with a negative slant (basically: there are other bottlenecks, yadda yadda). Commenters jump all over the piece's bias, get massively upvoted.

Yeah, the first quote with the graph should be the lead comment in all FUD articles.

 

[Tslynk67]

Options not for me! I’m stressed enough being long...

I bought one call once, it was 15/12/17 520 - way outside the money when I got it, but was actually up 10% when Tesks did the first 30 M3 deliveries, but then the ramp didn’t go as we would have liked.

I couldn’t live with that all the time, wouldn’t sleep at night...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Question to the forum members from an investing newbie who has just bought and held since early 2014.
What % of shares do you estimate you have gain/loss from buying highs/selling lows? I have never done it before and am reading everything I can from this great group trying to prepare for the next run-up. Hoping over the next few years I can add another 100% or more to my (small) position...how realistic is this scenario without jumping into the options game? Appreciate any and all advice!

Most people lose. I'm positive on TSLA, but would have been better off if I never touched it after initial position. But large part of effect for me was options, some of it was FOMO.
Edit: Actually, come to think of it, I may be about as good as if I just took initial position, but huge gains in the meantime that evaporated, and deep draw downs in value, even temporary ones, make it feel worse...

 

[bhtooefr]

Yeah, I don't do TSLA options plays because the premiums on buying calls are high enough that I'd rather just buy stock, and I don't have enough dry powder to handle the risk of selling a put (although I was mighty tempted on the way to Q2 earnings, and if I did have enough, selling puts could be a good way to manage a buy and hold strategy much larger-scale than mine).

 

[KarenRei]

So why not open an account with an U.S. broker?

Tried repeatedly. Every one I tried demanded a US residence. Also tried a German broker and a Nordic (non-Iceland) broker, with no better luck.

I'll check out IB this evening, but don't have much hope. May have even tried it before.

 

[SO16]

It's so freakin' goddamn complicated. Whatever happened to buying shares, putting them in the attic until you retire, then cashing-in?

Not only is it complicated, it creates an environment to be nefarious. I think it should just be you either own a stock or you don’t. Also trading should be capped at one transaction per day per stock to prevent the incremental buying and selling for pennies swings as well as overreaction from articles published. When it gets to the point where a trading company wants to be a bit closer to the NYSE for a couple milliseconds faster trading, there is something wrong with the process. Rules should be put in to prevent any type of benefit based on location.

High-frequency trading: when milliseconds mean millions

I’m sure I’ll get a lot of disagrees on this one! Haha

 

[gora321]

Europe trading green. Actually whole week is green.
Should we start to talk about weak shorts?

 

[RobStark]

Curious it is up $4.12 pre-market.

 

[jeewee3000]

Question to the forum members from an investing newbie who has just bought and held since early 2014.
What % of shares do you estimate you have gain/loss from buying highs/selling lows? I have never done it before and am reading everything I can from this great group trying to prepare for the next run-up. Hoping over the next few years I can add another 100% or more to my (small) position...how realistic is this scenario without jumping into the options game? Appreciate any and all advice!

If I may offer a suggestion: before starting to trade (= trying to sell on highs and buy in again on lows), do this virtually (fake money account). My broker software has the option built in, it's called a "shadow wallet".

Try to time the highs and lows for a couple of months (minimum three, better six or more) and look at your rate of return.

If the above turned into a lesson in humility, you might want to only try and buy on dips and hold forever like you are doing now. If you nailed it most of the time, you can start trading - but only with a fraction of your portfolio.

Timing the market is mostly a losers game. If it were easy, every trader would be filthy rich. Patience is the greatest virtue an investor and even trader can possess.

Back on topic: pre-market up to $314,55, nice!

 

[gora321]

Some troubles in legacy and they noticed Tesla too.

BMW appoints new purchasing chief amid reports of board tension

VW, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche stop plug-in hybrid sales on new WLTP emissions rules

 

[bhtooefr]

Oh, look, when the compliance cars no longer comply, they get discontinued...