TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Boomer19]

Hard data release of Q2 saw the stock priced at $330.
Emotional roller coaster saw the stop jump to 380 and back down to $310. Logically these two prices are mis-pricing by the market without data. Stability between the two should be around 342.

I also fell for the emotional roller coaster and tried to arb trade the 420 buyout price. Another lesson reinforced.

wait, what lesson though? not to listen to elon anymore (which i’d never dream of saying until the last few months) because frankly, he’s become the contra indicator (not cramer). i was going to dump some
options contracts on the saudi news. then elon decided to tweet about a deal. nobody in their right mind would sell their position then.

but since, we’ve found that there isn’t really anything concrete, so i, and assuming many more, have basically got my @ss handed to me. elon, like, who’s side are you on? wtf

maybe they’ll get an offer letter together and we see a rebound. but i would have been out of these if he wasn’t so reckless with that info.
and i don’t want to hear from anyone that i deserve what i get for short term trading. that’s Bull$h1t!!
i’m a stock accumulator too, and short term trading isn’t the devil. and i understand the risks. this was kind of a curveball. he shouldn’t have said all that he said, period.

and why is he telling the NYT anything, especially personal info!!! there’s no upside there. no way they are printing everything he said...only the bad stuff, which is exactly what happened.

i love him, but he’s effing killing me lately. he’s falling into their trap and losing control of the narrative when all he needs to do is let the production do the talking, and get some sleep. it’s like hes sabotaging himself or something, which is insane to me.
he’s actually losing credibility with his tweets, maybe not so much with me, or others here, but with mainstream public who only see from a distance...yes he is.

he needs to just calm down and remain tight lipped until he gets at least 8 hours of sleep. for the love of god, please sleep.

you’re on the verge of kicking a$$ and taking names, don’t be your own worst enemy elon.

 

[phil0909]

The article was explicitly focused on Musk's state of mind, not production numbers. Arguably, his state of mind is relevant. The question is how balanced their reporting really was (I don't know the answer, but I suspect not very.)

From the article: "In the interview on Thursday, Mr. Musk alternated between laughter and tears."

Sounds pretty balanced to me!

 

[phil0909]

respectfully, that is just NOT a good reason to buy a stock.

Correct. A straight up donation would be more efficient.

 

[Tslynk67]

You know the sales in 2018 are due to zero interst 10 year lease action end of 2017 and stopped in June...rest o% 2018 will be very weak. Why so much inventory then

I think that Norway typically has high inventory stock as they sell a lot of cars there, makes sense to carry a good amount.

Whereas I can't give specific figures, I do recall when I was looking for my Model X, which I bought a year ago, I was using these search engines and recall a lot of inventory in Norway.

So it's my conclusion that it's normal.

Seems there are 17 inventory cars in Belgium - if they were trying to "store" them away somewhere then they'd spread them out, not dump them all in once place.

 

[JRP3]

At least that $420 buyout price is looking better Had to buy more shares today.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

he’s actually losing credibility with his tweets

You know, it's funny. Since the whole "taking the company private" statement(which appears to have been a reasonable attempt at transparency), he's tweeted about.... well, not much. The worst thing since then was about selling short shorts as Tesla merch, deserving of, at worst, a slight shrug. I keep seeing people saying he should stop tweeting, but for the past 10 days it's been near radio silence.

 

[KSilver2000]

You know, it's funny. Since the whole "taking the company private" statement(which appears to have been a reasonable attempt at transparency), he's tweeted about.... well, not much. The worst thing since then was about selling short shorts as Tesla merch, deserving of, at worst, a slight shrug. I keep seeing people saying he should stop tweeting, but for the past 10 days it's been near radio silence.

Then this interview, which is just as bad.

 

[MXWing]

Cars are produced whether or not Musk is on an emotional +10 or an emotional -10.

Logically, I know this to be true but emotionally I feel bad for Musk and us longs.

Gonna go comfort myself beating up some Bavarian barbarians in my 3P.

Bavarian barbarians = is a joke
Beating them = not a joke

 

[waterloo42]

Not much, and there are two reasons for that.
First, when they execute very well, there's little to write FUD about.
Second, they're not a public company, so there are no shorts to profit from the FUD.

There is, however, plenty. Headlines like "SpaceX fails to recover Falcon 9", when it was just an attempt to recover the fairing, and the booster was an old, re-used one that they didn't care about recovering. When did you ever see "ULA fails to recover brand new Delta 4 Heavy"? Or the FUD when that defense satellite failed to disengage.

Exactly and, if it wasn't clear in my original reply, that's why I think a private TSLA will be a quieter more focused Tesla and be judged by their products and their achievements, not by the financial sausage required to achieve it.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Sandy literally took every single part back to the processing of the raw material. You cannot get more information than that.

Colin's source on information= Bob Lutz

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Exactly and, if it wasn't clear in my original reply, that's why I think a private TSLA will be a quieter more focused Tesla and be judged by their products and their achievements, not by the financial sausage required to achieve it.

One caution I'd point out here is that I don't think this is entirely true. It might get a little bit quieter, but I don't see the short angle actually being what's causing most of the noise. The actual inflection point in media coverage, I think, was when the UAW declared that they were taking the gloves off against Tesla. That was the point where I felt like media coverage went from mostly positive to dramatically and overwhelmingly negative. I'm not really sure going private is going to change that part of the dynamic, though I do still see it as an overall positive.

 

[mershaw2001]

I find the narrative that talks are ongoing and going well for a buyout to be compelling right now. We see very little communication from the company on any of the details. As pointed out we don't see much in the way of tweets from Musk. We also see large firms failing to step in and buy, and this seems consistent with being locked out while doing due diligence. I think we are seeing an opportunity by the shorts to shove this down, and with the price oscillating around 310 I am finally converting shares to calls. 3-4 months seems to be the best time frame. Certainly the worst for time decay, but want enough rope to run out a few extra weeks longer than I expect, and I don't want to buy 2020's because the higher premium will get eaten by a successful buyout.

 

[waterloo42]

This is a false analogy. SpaceX does not produce a mass market product available for any average joe to buy. So what would be the point to posting BS on twitter for you or I to read?!?!?

That is true; it's not a perfect analogy. Even though SpaceX has huge public awareness because of the launches, average consumers would not care if they were public or see the FUD.

But if SpaceX was a public company, would you expect the FUD to be higher or the same? I think it would be higher both on financials and technology skepticism: "you can't land rockets ...short it" to "they're only alive because of taxpayer money" along with "ULA is so much bigger; just wait to see how they'll eat SpaceX alive" to "there's no market for launches; what maybe 5 - 10 per year?"

That FUD still exists today but it's meaningless because there's little harm (financially) that can come out of it by being a private entity.

 

[Causalien]

wait, what lesson though? not to listen to elon anymore (which i’d never dream of saying until the last few months) because frankly, he’s become the contra indicator (not cramer). i was going to dump some
options contracts on the saudi news. then elon decided to tweet about a deal. nobody in their right mind would sell their position then.

but since, we’ve found that there isn’t really anything concrete, so i, and assuming many more, have basically got my @ss handed to me. elon, like, who’s side are you on? wtf

maybe they’ll get an offer letter together and we see a rebound. but i would have been out of these if he wasn’t so reckless with that info.
and i don’t want to hear from anyone that i deserve what i get for short term trading. that’s Bull$h1t!!
i’m a stock accumulator too, and short term trading isn’t the devil. and i understand the risks. this was kind of a curveball. he shouldn’t have said all that he said, period.

and why is he telling the NYT anything, especially personal info!!! there’s no upside there. no way they are printing everything he said...only the bad stuff, which is exactly what happened.

i love him, but he’s effing killing me lately. he’s falling into their trap and losing control of the narrative when all he needs to do is let the production do the talking, and get some sleep. it’s like hes sabotaging himself or something, which is insane to me.
he’s actually losing credibility with his tweets, maybe not so much with me, or others here, but with mainstream public who only see from a distance...yes he is.

he needs to just calm down and remain tight lipped until he gets at least 8 hours of sleep. for the love of god, please sleep.

you’re on the verge of kicking a$$ and taking names, don’t be your own worst enemy elon.

The lesson of sticking to preplanned points of entry and exit. I bought some at 367 for the private arb, but it was never a level of entry I have determined to be worthwhile before.

Stick to the plan.

I just hope the recent negativity doesn't get to Elon and force him to twit something else.

Stick to the plan Elon.

 

[Boomer19]

You know, it's funny. Since the whole "taking the company private" statement(which appears to have been a reasonable attempt at transparency), he's tweeted about.... well, not much. The worst thing since then was about selling short shorts as Tesla merch, deserving of, at worst, a slight shrug. I keep seeing people saying he should stop tweeting, but for the past 10 days it's been near radio silence.

i was referring to the pedo thing and now this latest scenario.

casual followers have had some major problems with those two issues.

 

[Unknown_Wizard]

Just bought calls for 500$ with strike price 400, ending Sept 2018...

No risk, no fun.

 

[Boomer19]

The lesson of sticking to preplanned points of entry and exit. I bought some at 367 for the private arb, but it was never a level of entry I have determined to be worthwhile before.

Stick to the plan.

i hear you, but normally, pre-planned points of entry/exit are affected when material info like a corporate action event is in the works

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

wait, what lesson though? not to listen to elon anymore (which i’d never dream of saying until the last few months) because frankly, he’s become the contra indicator (not cramer). i was going to dump some
options contracts on the saudi news. then elon decided to tweet about a deal. nobody in their right mind would sell their position then.

but since, we’ve found that there isn’t really anything concrete, so i, and assuming many more, have basically got my @ss handed to me. elon, like, who’s side are you on? wtf

maybe they’ll get an offer letter together and we see a rebound. but i would have been out of these if he wasn’t so reckless with that info.
and i don’t want to hear from anyone that i deserve what i get for short term trading. that’s Bull$h1t!!
i’m a stock accumulator too, and short term trading isn’t the devil. and i understand the risks. this was kind of a curveball. he shouldn’t have said all that he said, period.

and why is he telling the NYT anything, especially personal info!!! there’s no upside there. no way they are printing everything he said...only the bad stuff, which is exactly what happened.

i love him, but he’s effing killing me lately. he’s falling into their trap and losing control of the narrative when all he needs to do is let the production do the talking, and get some sleep. it’s like hes sabotaging himself or something, which is insane to me.
he’s actually losing credibility with his tweets, maybe not so much with me, or others here, but with mainstream public who only see from a distance...yes he is.

he needs to just calm down and remain tight lipped until he gets at least 8 hours of sleep. for the love of god, please sleep.

you’re on the verge of kicking a$$ and taking names, don’t be your own worst enemy elon.

You sound like me in 2016.
I've learned since to apply heavy filters to anything he says, but this go private got me too...

 

[Causalien]

i hear you, but normally, pre-planned points of entry/exit are affected when material info like a corporate action event is in the works

From TA stand point no. Just like I thought the $303 gap will never gets closed now that we have a buyout offer. Lo and behold, it gets closed.

Some of these TA iron rules are there because of countless dreams of "this time might be different" got crushed

 

[tivoboy]

I think bag holders don't want to hold over the weekend. so sub 300$ coming.