Assuming multiple factors can contribute to TSLA stock movements, the one area I believe will get the stock back on track is hearing a positive or at least neutral outcome to all or at least some of the regulatory investigations that are currently on-going against Tesla. As I recall, the last large upward movement happened shortly after NHTSA concluded its investigation of the Josh Brown accident.
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The parts I really like about the video beside that he reversed his opinion about 180 degrees are:
1. His convincing statements about the profit the car will make
2. The in depth cost break down of every part and bottom up calculation
3. His statement about the electronics and chip Technology
4. His view about how integrated everything is
5. His statement about the Battery cells energy density versus older cells as well as Leaf and i3
A profound analysis with positive outcome from a harsh critic is more valuable than anything else.
Obviously there was no criticism about panel gaps any more which I found ridiculous at first given the early stage of production.
Let’s hope this makes it into the media and gets attention.
I'm feeling your pain. I used up my dry powder during last weeks drop.
To add insult to injury my wife just let me know that she was correct to wait and just purchased her TSLA for less than I did.
The slide is because Elon is the face of Tesla and the face of Tesla is busy humiliating himself on Twitter and there's no one who apparently has enough influence with him to convince to delete his Twitter account.
Dennisj00
Member
Someone obviously schooled him on circuit board layout / density / complexity. His earlier comments showed he knew nothing about the electronics.
bdy0627
Active Member
yes this was a big shift.
although in the first model 3 teardown he was very positive about battery, suspension..
but i also remember him saying something about electronics being of mobile phone quality/density of real estate used, which he said was exceptional because the form factor is obv much bigger with vehicle.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Average volume and after the initial drop the stock is basically trading flat, I'm not seeing any loss of confidence or running for the exits at all.
jhm
Well-Known Member
But are you master of your domain?
cheshire cat
Member
bdy0627
Active Member
I gotta say the stock movement lately has been rather...interesting. Tesla appears to be legitimately sustaining production of 5,000 model 3 per week and expects to be at 6,000 in about 6 weeks. They are shifting production heavily towards the very high margin performance model 3s and AWD versions. They should start delivering these in the next few weeks. Munro research publicly indicates they have completely changed their minds on the model 3, saying that not only does it have extremely advanced technology, but it will enable 30%+ gross margins for Tesla (yes, they are charging a whopping $87k for this research). This independently confirms what Tesla has indicated about the model 3. Tesla reaffirms guidance for positive GAAP net income and cash flow for 2H 2018. Oh, and...Elon calls someone a "pedo" on twitter. So, put all of this in a blender and what's it worth for the stock? It's down 9.4% from the $342 close on June 29. That's really bizarre to me. This is why it's absolutely futile to try to predict the short term movement of TSLA, no matter how much we think we know about it.
You seem to have forgotten how this discussion started. The question asked by a Long was, why the bears would be surprised, if Tesla continues to produce at 5k right after the end of quarter run. I tried to answer that by pointing out, that this wasn't the case after the last 2 quarters and most bears i know (including me) expected production to come down to 3k or 4k in July. It doesn't seem to do that, hence the surprise. But somehow you read something else in my posts.
This discussion never was about what average productions Tesla will have in Q3. At least from my side. It also never was a discussion about the whole quarter run rate in Q1 and Q2. Are we clear now?
bdy0627
Active Member
Netflix earnings bringing tech down
I can't, since i have no special insights into the company internals, sorry. If i had to guess, i'd say those US diesels may be scrapped or sold for a fraction in south america or something like that. I didn't come across articles touching that topic. Regarding the situation in germany, media reported they reduced production of some models and stopped production of others completely. Reported news mostly say that they could match the new WLTP standard requirements, but won't be certified on time to be sold. Maybe they can sell them, once the certificate is obtained. But again, this is mostly guessing from my side. Sure is, that overall diesel sales are declining pretty fast (for a slow moving industry like this). I don't have any information, why they didn't join Teslas SC Network but would suppose, they want to slow Tesla down a bit and propagate the CCS standard.
The NHTSA report was available in January 2017. Perhaps a larger influence was the announcement on March 27, 2017 of Tencent's position: SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.
Shares closed at $263 on 3/24/17. The SP rose steadily to $383 on 6/23/17.
Ooh I forgot Netflix was today.
On-topic, the drop today was nowhere what I feared could happen. There's a lot of strength in the stock.
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