TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

Elon did state that general assembly is now the bottleneck, so the 3rd line they are installing now will be a big help.

 

[Waiting4M3]

journalistic.. integftrdy.. ? nah.. cant say I recognize that word. ;-)

I think you misspelled integrifty

 

[Cosmacelf]

I enjoyed it but I don't think there was anything mentioned that will catapult the stock. Lots of sizzle. M3 production continues to improve, positive future quarters coming soon, FSD in 6-12 months, exponential improvements coming soon to EAP, China factory coming soon, positive gross margins for TE coming soon, model Y reveal next March. It had all been mentioned before. There was interesting info on the model 3 3rd general assembly line they are installing now. That is what is giving Elon confidence in 5,000+ soon. I thought that was bordering on steak vs sizzle.

There was a lot said in this meeting that the general public does not know. Most of this info might have been known or guessed at here, but now the headlines will have to report on them.

5,000 units/week end of month is a huge re-affirmation.

Shanghai gigafactory is huge.

sub $100/kWh cell is huge.

Next gen Supercharger end of year with a faster build out after that is huge.

Tesla energy positive margins and 1 gWh production in less than a year is huge.

 

[dmvevguy]

I actually thought the meeting went well. I'm just hoping they achieve positive cash flow by end of Q3. That white next gen roadster looks so sick...by the time it comes out I'll gladly buy it through my long term gains from this price

 

[bdy0627]

There was a lot said in this meeting that the general public does not know. Most of this info might have been known or guessed at here, but now the headlines will have to report on them.

5,000 units/week end of month is a huge re-affirmation.

Shanghai gigafactory is huge.

sub $100/kWh cell is huge.

Next gen Supercharger end of year with a faster build out after that is huge.

Tesla energy positive margins and 1 gWh production in less than a year is huge.

While it's true that the general public probably isn't aware of all of this, they still won't be unless the media presents it. For those of us who follow Tesla, I believe all of this had been mentioned before except perhaps the discussion around the sub $100/kWh cell and then ultimately the pack. Maybe there was a little more detail on the Supercharger upgrade that is coming. Ultimately, it will come down to what the media chooses to present. We'll see tomorrow.

 

[SteveG3]

There was a lot said in this meeting that the general public does not know.

agree

Most of this info might have been known or guessed at here

agree

but now the headlines will have to report on them.

outside of Electrek, Teslarati,..., quite confident they will either not be reported, or presented only after bouncing them off the media fun house mirror to transform them into concern headlines.

 

[Electroman]

Model Y will be delayed, Musk says - LA Times
Tesla production hiccups to continue until a 3rd line comes operational - NY Times
Sky rocketing battery costs adds to Tesla's woes - Business Insider
Musk uncertain if Tesla can meet its modest production goals for Q2 - WSJ
Low cost Model 3 plans abandoned - National Enquirer

And then this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-feeding-live-babies-to-robots-2018-5?r=UK&IR=T

Tesla engineers feed live babies to Robots in Gigafactory

In an effort to speed up the manufacturing of batteries, an employee told Business Insider that he was asked to feed live babies to Robots. When Business Insider reached out, Tesla declined to comment, but instead pointed out to a statement in the recent investor letter which said, ‘Tesla will achieve its production goals by all means’.

 

[Thumper]

+$3 after hours. Hope this bodes well for tomorrow but with this stock, who knows.

 

[AlMc]

There was a lot said in this meeting that the general public does not know. Most of this info might have been known or guessed at here, but now the headlines will have to report on them.

5,000 units/week end of month is a huge re-affirmation.

Shanghai gigafactory is huge.

sub $100/kWh cell is huge.

Next gen Supercharger end of year with a faster build out after that is huge.

Tesla energy positive margins and 1 gWh production in less than a year is huge.

They will all be HUGE when they happen and not before or just because EM says they will happen. We have seen this movie before. I hope it ends with the steak meeting the sizzle.

 

[JRP3]

They will all be HUGE when they happen and not before or just because EM says they will happen. We have seen this movie before. I hope it ends with the steak meeting the sizzle.

Exactly. I expect future projections from Elon will be heavily ignored by the market at least until confirmation by a third party. The China GF news may qualify.

 

[neroden]

Short sellers got no reasons
Short sellers got no reasons
Short sellers got no reasons
To sell

They got little hands
And it isn’t a surprise
That they go around
Tellin' great big lies

They got little morals
And tiny little hearts
And they keep repeating
(This is the most amazing part):

Well, I think that it ain’t worth nothin’
‘Cuz Stanphyl told me that it ain’t worth nothin’
Well we don’t need no Mark B Spiegel
Keep repeating that tired old spiel
Round here

....and Wipstah’s to blame!

..don't you remember that poetry makes TSLA go down? Are you trying to buy more shares cheap?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Model Y will be delayed, Musk says - LA Times
Tesla production hiccups to continue until a 3rd line comes operational - NY Times
Sky rocketing battery costs adds to Tesla's woes - Business Insider
Musk uncertain if Tesla can meet its modest production goals for Q2 - WSJ
Low cost Model 3 plans abandoned - National Enquirer

And then this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-feeding-live-babies-to-robots-2018-5?r=UK&IR=T

Tesla engineers feed live babies to Robots in Gigafactory

and also

"How much money will Tesla lose on the next 1GWh of storage product?" spin it with 1GWh * double digit negative margin

 

[Waiting4M3]

Elon did state that general assembly is now the bottleneck, so the 3rd line they are installing now will be a big help.

My initial interpretation is that they reached 3500/wk with 2 lines, so with 3 lines they can at least get to 5250 (50% more) just by copy/paste. This is why Elon said 5k/wk by the end of this month.

Also I guess if they can speed the line speed then maybe they can get to 6k/wk or more, and that'll be part of their ramp effort in Q3.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

There was a lot said in this meeting that the general public does not know. Most of this info might have been known or guessed at here, but now the headlines will have to report on them.

5,000 units/week end of month is a huge re-affirmation.

Shanghai gigafactory is huge.

sub $100/kWh cell is huge.

Next gen Supercharger end of year with a faster build out after that is huge.

Tesla energy positive margins and 1 gWh production in less than a year is huge.

I liked the meeting.
But can I play devil's advocate for a moment? Here are areas of concern, or rather FUD articles I could spin if I were so inclined, and there are plenty of people so inclined:

- Elon walks back the promise, 5000 units per week is now 'likely', not a promise for end of Q2 anymore.
- Doug Field was not in attendance, not an executive anymore, Tesla lost another exec.
- Shanghai factory is a another huge cash drain for Tesla...
- Tesla hopes to hit $100 cell cost towards the end of year (and we know they're always late), but GM had $145 18 months ago!? Where is Tesla's lead? with all module automation issues, does this mean their current cost is $250-$300 on the module level?
- Tesla promises new generation of superchargers. Yeah, right, when did they deliver anything on time.
- 1GWh in a year? What do they need 35+GWh factory for? And I'd be rich, if I had one TSLA share every time I heard Elon say 'exponential growth' for TE.
- Elon admits he has a 'condition', his brother lied to him to get him to school on time...
- Improvements to autopilot continue being few months away, just like the last 18 months...

It's very easy for me to flip sides and listen from whatever angle I want, and I just wanted to show that anyone could have heard what they wanted in today's meeting. As for me, I am encouraged that they seem to be genuinely on the way to 5K, even if it will take them few weeks more than the end of June, which I fully expect.

 

[neroden]

I suspect it’s not allowed to organize any type of action so I won’t. Every day I up the limit on the number of shares I allow to loan out to be shorted, fidelity finds a borrower within 24 hrs.

Jesus, I'm losing a lot of money by being at a broker who isn't lending out my shares. I have *so* much going on that I didn't want to open a account at another broker but I really don't see any alternative. Time to schedule a trip to the nearest Fidelity branch, THREE HOURS AWAY....

 

[ZsoZso]

Model Y will be delayed, Musk says - LA Times
Tesla production hiccups to continue until a 3rd line comes operational - NY Times
Sky rocketing battery costs adds to Tesla's woes - Business Insider
Musk uncertain if Tesla can meet its modest production goals for Q2 - WSJ
Low cost Model 3 plans abandoned - National Enquirer

And then this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-feeding-live-babies-to-robots-2018-5?r=UK&IR=T

Tesla engineers feed live babies to Robots in Gigafactory

Nice tries, but I'm sure the professional spin-doctors at the media will yet again prove to be even more creative than you can imagine!

 

[wipster]

Why does he sound like he is crying? Did he break up with Grimes?

He sounded like Elon to me, same way he always sounds, although he did seem to enjoy the questions from the shareholders in the audience, especially the one about "Elon time"

 

[Waiting4M3]

I liked the meeting.
But can I play devil's advocate for a moment? Here are areas of concern, or rather FUD articles I could spin if I were so inclined, and there are plenty of people so inclined:

- Elon walks back the promise, 5000 units per week is now 'likely', not a promise for end of Q2 anymore.
- Doug Field was not in attendance, not an executive anymore, Tesla lost another exec.
- Shanghai factory is a another huge cash drain for Tesla...
- Tesla hopes to hit $100 cell cost towards the end of year (and we know they're always late), but GM had $145 18 months ago!? Where is Tesla's lead? with all module automation issues, does this mean their current cost is $250-$300 on the module level?
- Tesla promises new generation of superchargers. Yeah, right, when did they deliver anything on time.
- 1GWh in a year? What do they need 35+GWh factory for? And I'd be rich, if I had one TSLA share every time I heard Elon say 'exponential growth' for TE.
- Elon admits he has a 'condition', his brother lied to him to get him to school on time...
- Improvements to autopilot continue being few months away, just like the last 18 months...

It's very easy for me to flip sides and listen from whatever angle I want, and I just wanted to show that anyone could have heard what they wanted in today's meeting. As for me, I am encouraged that they seem to be genuinely on the way to 5K, even if it will take them few weeks more than the end of June, which I fully expect.

I'm in the same boat as you. There are a lot of good info, but not too much new to Tesla longs who stay on top of thew news at TMC/Electrok/Teslarati. OTOH there is nothing that will change the bears/media's mind, since they won't believe anything Elon says until it's printed in a company filing. I don't think the market will react much to this meeting.

 

[jhm]

I had set my *$#@ buy limit $1 lower than it went today!

(Which means it's almost certainly going to shoot up now, cuz Mr Murphy loves me that way! )

Thanks for putting a floor on the price. We all appreciate the effort!

 

[MP3Mike]

My initial interpretation is that they reached 3500/wk with 2 lines, so with 3 lines they can at least get to 5250 (50% more) just by copy/paste. This is why Elon said 5k/wk by the end of this month.

Also I guess if they can speed the line speed then maybe they can get to 6k/wk or more, and that'll be part of their ramp effort in Q3.

I'm pretty sure he said that he thought they could get to 5k with just the two lines, but with the third it should be easier.