What about the fact that the new orders are greater than the cancellations, so the net order are up? Or is that an inconvenient truth?
Although to be fair, we have no idea if this report is accurate either.
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What about the fact that the new orders are greater than the cancellations, so the net order are up? Or is that an inconvenient truth?
Although to be fair, we have no idea if this report is accurate either.
Haven't seen that one, but would be interested to. Do you have a link?
This one is based on analyzing credit card payments/refunds.
Nearly a quarter of Tesla’s Model 3 reservation deposits in the U.S. have supposedly been refunded
Esme Es Mejor
Member
So:
— hundreds of thousands have canceled
(some portion of which upgraded to S or X)
— tens of thousands have been delivered
— reservations are as high as they’ve ever been
Demand confirmed!
Really? I think it having the exact opposite effect when you consider that even with an ~25% cancellation, there are still ~450,000 reservations for Model 3's and that many (possibly a substantial amount) of these cancellations were to upgrade to an S or an X because they wanted a Tesla so bad. IMHO that's cause for celebration!
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
It should be noted that all the people who have switched to an S/X had to request a refund then resubmit a new one on the different vehicle. I doubt it's a majority but still significant to the number.
Got beat to the punch (twice) it would seem!
Got beat to the punch (twice) it would seem!
Paracelsus
Active Member
"No matter how you look at the data, the main takeaway is still that the demand for the Model 3 is absolutely insane."
Nice read. Thanks for posting.
Thanks. Seems to be the same data. Assuming 450,000 at end March (which the delivery update seems to confirm), the right hand chart in your link suggests about 350,000 at end April.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I think we need to wait for confirmation from Tesla on the Model 3 refund issue. Just looking at a refunded credit card transaction does not tell you anything about final deposition of the reservation. For example, a customer actually buying the Model 3 may have a refund on the reservation and make an order deposit or final payment through additional transactions. Notice that the refund rate has increased with production, which would be consistent with refunding reservation deposits in coordination with selling the Model 3 cars.
Only Tesla and the customer should have full visibility into this. Not even a single bank would have complete information on the actual sales transaction. So I'd be wary of a third party looking at anonymized data.
Shorts especially should be wary of fools gold here because if the refunds are in fact linked to sales, then these stats will continue to go up even as production and deliveries increase. So shorts are likely to feel encouraged about their position at just the time as Model 3 sales are boosting the income statement.
Only Tesla and the customer should have full visibility into this. Not even a single bank would have complete information on the actual sales transaction. So I'd be wary of a third party looking at anonymized data.
Shorts especially should be wary of fools gold here because if the refunds are in fact linked to sales, then these stats will continue to go up even as production and deliveries increase. So shorts are likely to feel encouraged about their position at just the time as Model 3 sales are boosting the income statement.
No, that's not how it works. When you order, you pay an additional $2,500 order fee. Your $1,000 initial reservation is added to this for a total non-refundable amount of $3,500. The $1,000 is never refunded on a purchase. [Edit: ...of a Model 3. If a Model 3 reservation holder instead opted to buy an S or X rather than the 3, then they would indeed have their $1k refunded and a separate $2,500 order fee charged for the S/X. I was referring solely to Model 3 reservation holders who purchase Model 3s.]
Indeed. I read this article as bullish, as 23% refunds after 2.2 years seems low to me.
They are not.
Sorry, I take that back - I see your chart is an index and not dollars.
jhm
Well-Known Member
How do we know this is always the case? Perhaps the transaction worked for you that way, but that need not be the universal experience. This is why we need Tesla to confirm these numbers.
Certainly agree with that. More transparency around the deposit/reservations issue would be very helpful!
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Nope. 450k+ was confirmed in May, after the conference call. Data about 23% refunds said most were in April. If so, those refunds failed to diminish net number of reservations. The end.
I really think the answer is 296.74. If it closes at 314.16, we'll have to all have some Pi !
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