TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

I'm not totally clear on margin accounts, but it just occurred to me that if your $TSLA shorts were backed by other stocks that tanked then you might be forced to cover simply because the others were going down -- which would tend to push $TSLA up and might explain the final >4% lead over NASDAQ.

Well, I don't know, but its a thought.

Yah, if your longs are down and your shorts are up, it's wedgie time...
(not a nice squeeze)

Oh well, shut the thread down till Thursday, no Market till then...

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm learning. When I saw the ARK dumping post I literally said to myself, "Curt has explained this".

BTW Curt, do the big mutual funds like fidelity have practices like this as well?

Surely they do. Same principle as an individual investor. Keep your exposure to any stock to a set level, balancing as needed.

 

[AudubonB]

And you keep announcing this. And I have to keep explaining that TSLA remains the #1 holding in three of ARK's ETFs. They rebalance their funds virtually every day, while trying to keep any individual holding at not much more than 10%. Today many of their holdings moved down in price, thus making price-gaining TSLA a relatively higher percentage of their holdings. Do you understand?

Rebalancing needs to occur not just when a position becomes outsized wrt a fund's holding restrictions (such as ARK's "no more than 10%"), but also and ===>particularly around month-breaks AND year-ends<=== when the fundholders move in or out of the fund. You can't redeem the South Zzzygistan Acrobats' Retirement Fund pullout of $130mm by sending them the portfolio's shares - you have to sell the positions and give 'em a check.

 

[mongo]

Surely they do. Same principle as an individual investor. Keep your exposure to any stock to a set level, balancing as needed.

100% is a level.

Right?

 

[SpaceCash]

100% is a level.

Right?

The only one I know

 

[humbaba]

100% is a level.

Right?

Given the current stock market action, $TSLA keeps growing as a percent of my holdings. Not that I'm complaining

 

[Intl Professor]

It's my birthday too! ;-)

OT, as usual.

Another example of entanglement? There are so many. In my old age I seek solace in monism, and attribute this in no small part to my Buddhist wife and the quantum magicians. It is very hard to separate ourselves from the environment without buffoonery.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Yah, if your longs are down and your shorts are up, it's wedgie time...
(not a nice squeeze)

Oh well, shut the thread down till Thursday, no Market till then...

Close down the TMC pub? No way!

 

[AudubonB]

Off-T:

Is there anyone else who thinks humbaba's avatar looks like a person facing right (screen left) wearing atop his head a pig - or bear - mask facing left (screen right) and obscuring his eyes? Can anyone tell me what it is supposed to be?

 

[lklundin]

Given the current stock market action, $TSLA keeps growing as a percent of my holdings. Not that I'm complaining

With a nod to your avatar I admit that for investing I am a one-trick pony.

PS. - following less successful investing 20 years ago, when Datek and Ameritrade was around, with commercials like this one:

 

[CorneliusXX]

OT
Hesitate to ask: What is NFI?

Who's on first?

 

[humbaba]

Off-T:

Is there anyone else who thinks humbaba's avatar looks like a person facing right (screen left) wearing atop his head a pig mask facing left (screen right) and obscuring his eyes? Can anyone tell me what it is supposed to be?

its a bit map rendering of an autotrace of a rendered image. Its a clip from

 

[AudubonB]

My apologies. I didn't realize how verklempt I was from looking at too many avatars.

 

[Curt Renz]

Rebalancing needs to occur not just when a position becomes outsized wrt a fund's holding restrictions (such as ARK's "no more than 10%"), but also and ===>particularly around month-breaks AND year-ends<=== when the fundholders move in or out of the fund. You can't redeem the South Zzzygistan Acrobats' Retirement Fund pullout of $130mm by sending them the portfolio's shares - you have to sell the positions and give 'em a check.

That's good information regarding mutual funds, but ARK runs exchange traded funds (ETF). An investor withdraws money from an ETF by selling shares to another investor through a stock exchange, just as he would with an individual stock.

 

[humbaba]

OT

My apologies. I didn't realize how verklempt I was from looking at too many avatars.

Maybe I should've held off to see what others thought. Or possibly insisted it was a selfie Ah well, spilt milk and all that.

[edited as i realized the OT tag was missing]

Mod: I can erase it if you wish.....

 

[AudubonB]

On-Topic:

This week's market actions are a good demonstration of how #45 now is the wolf who has cried "Sheep!" once too often.

• It is likely that from now on, his nonsense no longer will be listened to.
• And guess what happens to wolves when the surrounding wolves tire of him?

 

[Unpilot]

OT, as usual.

Another example of entanglement? There are so many. In my old age I seek solace in monism, and attribute this in no small part to my Buddhist wife and the quantum magicians. It is very hard to separate ourselves from the environment without buffoonery.

Love this...yes to be separate from the world is crazy and a fools errand.

 

[AudubonB]

Curt: are ARK-type ETFs, then, bog-standard good* old-fashioned closed-end funds?

*for a given definition of "good". I don't like 'em and never did, though I had to run one for a long time.

 

[humbaba]

On-Topic:

This week's market actions are a good demonstration of how #45 now is the wolf who has cried "Sheep!" once too often.

• It is likely that from now on, his nonsense no longer will be listened to.
• And guess what happens to wolves when the surrounding wolves tire of him?

One question, who(?) is #45?

[edit, ah, I think i get it. just a bit slow]

 

[tivoboy]

The impression I have is that he has a well diversified portfolio with lots of active trading, largely based on technicals. (My apologies to @tivoboy if I'm wrong.) The only surprising thing is that he haunts this forum.

But yesterday he predicted 370$ for then or today -- which looked like it would pan out before the market tanked. I'm not a believer in technical trading, but I do think his predictions are more likely to pan out than my own (today notwithstanding). I think he posts here in order to share his notions of how the market will move. I don't generally agree, but I appreciate the input. And its interesting to see how well they do or don't pan out.

Indeed, I only call it as I see it.. I don't have any ulterior motive. I don't presume to think that I could somehow change the direction of a billion dollar company with my posts on some random online forum. I'm simply posting about what I see in macro impact, equity market, company business and equity technicals for the stock in question. The marriage of that is how I get my thesis, then I distill that into where I see the best opportunity for return. Selling/buying calls, spreads, buying the stock outright, overwriting, or simply sitting on my hands waiting for the stock to come to me (usually at a lower price). And yes, I do very well at this across most major sectors. I'm not good with real estate or consumer retail (other than the tech side)

I AM trying to make money and I do that very well and predictably and I don't have any shame in making the money in either direction. While not shorting the stock directly (if that is the directional bias that I see) I'll buy puts, or lighten long positions or sell calls. The derivatives market is there for that purpose. And as well, I simply call it like I see it. As most who have comment here have noted, I call it as I see it and it pretty much goes EXACTLY in that direction. Don't be misled that I am day/hour trading - I'm not. I swing trade and that is simply a high confidence in directional bias over short to medium term durations.

I'm not posting things about major racial bias in the factory, or quality control concerns (okay, I did post some about that back in the spring because I said in 2017 that were would be production delays and QC concerns) so I can't see how this is spreading FUD.

And if it is right, literally 80+% of the time, how can it be FUD other than accurately predicting the future?