TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

MOD:
There is one poster here for whom one topic more than any other will cause him to derail this thread....endlessly.

Five years is enough. Do it elsewhere.

*cough* Yeah, it belongs in the "why Tesla will fail (eventually)" thread.

 

[neroden]

Well, POTUS and others in the WH are pretty close with the head of state of Russia. Maybe they will work something out, POTUS is after all author of the book: 'Trump: The Art of the Deal'...

Actually, that book was written by Tony Schwartz.

Donald Trump’s Ghostwriter Tells All

 

[neroden]

You're right. Printing money is very cool when done by government that is legit and is doing it moderately.
But it's a slippery slope.
I've lived through 50% inflation a day, and there is nothing worse economically...
View attachment 353811

I agree with you except that there are a couple of worse things economically.

Very few people alive today have lived through a really severe deflation. It's worse. The last one was the Great Depression, after which nearly everyone in power was so terrified of deflation that they would do nearly anything to avoid it.

Now, of course, we have leaders who have forgotten all about deflation and aren't worrying about it. Time to repeat the mistakes of the 1920s!

 

[neroden]

Yugoslavia (and Argentina, Greece, Zimbabwe, pre WWII Germany, etc.) had debt in another country's currency. Yugoslavia's debt was denominated in U.S. dollars - you cannot print your way out of that kind of debt trap by printing dinars.

Yugoslavia's GDP in 1980 was above $100 billion dollars - their debt of $20 billion should not have been a problem (~20% of GDP), had it been denominated in dinars.

@neroden's point is that national debt in your own currency is generally not a problem:

• Great Britain had 300% GDP worth of national debt after the war, denominated in the pound sterling, and handled it without a debt crisis or hyperinflation.
• The U.S. had 120% of GDP worth of national debt in 1946 and grew out of it without a debt crisis or hyperinflation.

To get back on topic: if Tesla's ~$10b long term debt was denominated in 150,000 Tesla Model 3's, two quarters of production at 5k/week, it would be a lot harder to FUD about it, right?

Or if it were entirely denominated in TSLA stock, something Tesla can in fact print.

 

[aronth5]

Yep, and that is one reason why I think they should start the Semi production, in limited quantities ASAP. Then tell Panasonic to ramp up and make as many cells as possible as fast as possible. The Semi can eat up the battery production insanely fast. (It only takes ~500 LR Semis a week to use as much battery capacity as 7,000 LR Model 3s a week.)

So use the batteries for Model 3, Powerwall, Y, Pickup, etc. and then just put any leftovers into Semis.

An excellent observation from an earlier post is that volume will be slow to ramp for the Semi since buyers will need time for evaluation and cost comparisons to their current fleet.
That was not the case for the Model 3 as an example and certainly not for the upcoming Y where demand will certainly exceed supply.

 

[neroden]

Fantastic article by @neroden

The Doom Of Fossil Fuel Investments | CleanTechnica

Edit: fantastic in the modern sense of the word, not the original meaning.

Thanks. This was my March 2017 research note, which I circulated privately at the time, to give friends & organizations I cared about a chance to divest ahead of the curve. Most of the people who got it responded appropriately. The Board of Trustees of the college I graduated from got a copy, but they're still invested in fossil fuels (sigh), so I decided they'd chosen not to use their head start and went ahead and published.

 

[aronth5]

"Batteries Not Included".

EDIT: Dont' forget that commercial rollout of the Semi will require that the MegaCharger rollout be well underway to provide minimum useful trucking routes. More resources, more time to market.

Not necessarily. Megacharger rollout will most likely be installed initially at distribution centers where the fleet owners can work directly with Tesla on installation. I suspect to some extent that is already happening.

 

[Beltsbear]

Yup. Not as long as they are battery cell constrained.

Switching S/X from 18650 cells to 2670 cells is the equivalent of reducing total cell production by about 8 GWh per year.

Tesla needs the extra cells. 18650s are here to stay for the forseeable future.

Agreed. A lot of people misconstrue Elon‘s tweets. Tesla is definitely battery constrained. They might have enough batteries to max out the model three line but they certainly don’t have a enough for Tesla energy. When the Semi comes out it will take 10 times the number of batteries in the model three. Even in low quantities that’s a lot of batteries.

 

[scaesare]

I remember some talks about liquid cooled charging cable, that should work.

Which addresses none of the factors he mentioned.

 

[dc_h]

Agreed. A lot of people misconstrue Elon‘s tweets. Tesla is definitely battery constrained. They might have enough batteries to max out the model three line but they certainly don’t have a enough for Tesla energy. When the Semi comes out it will take 10 times the number of batteries in the model three. Even in low quantities that’s a lot of batteries.

Each semi will probably use 500-600KW, but I doubt they’ll make more than 100 a week the first six months and not more than 200 or 300 a week the first year. Great if they do, but I think this ramp will intentionally be slow. These trucks will be tightly monitored and tested and charging systems at the customer sites will need to be built.

 

[Alphacrux]

[/QUOTE="But whatever it is, none of Tesla cars today can take 150 KW charging for more than a few minutes. Today it is barely sustaining 110 KW for more than say between 10 to 20% SoC. I suspect the elapsed time difference between a full charge on the current 110 to newer expected 150 KW will be no more than a minute or two.

For the 200 Kwh Roadster and Semi - it will make a huge difference.[/QUOTE]

Actually, on my latest road trip, my 2017-vintage P100D charged above 110KW until almost 50%, certainly up to about 45%. A big increase over my 2015-vintage P90D. So increased battery capacity and possibly improved battery chemistry made a big difference.

There was a post on one of the forums where the poster believed the M3 is power-limited and could possibly charge up to 140 or 150 KW and the 100KW packs on the S/X up to 130+ KW. I'll try to locate the post.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Have not seen this noted here, but could be the most understated news of the week, and from Tripp chowdry no less.
He says they are dismantling the tent, yes that tent. Implication is that 7000 a week this month would be with the original G3 line. That means margins could go up and there could be a new surprise assembly line appearing somewhere in Q1?!
If true, I think it’s most likely the tent would go to Shanghai and that 3000 a month in China could be sooner then anticipated. Ok, probably crazy idea, but if true, Tesla could have higher margins in China and hit 10,000 a month much sooner then expected.
Love to hear from locals. If the tent is coming down, margins are going up. If the tent goes to Shanghai or even Sparks, revenue is going up soon.


Tesla (TSLA) Production Surge Possible as Huge Tent Gets Dismantled - Global Equities' Chowdhry

I don't see any evidence this is in reference to GA4. The description calls it a "huge tent in the holding area" and if you look at the video, it doesn't look like the same spot where GA4 is located.

It doesn't pass the smell test either. Why in the world would they dismantle that miraculous tent only a few months after building it?

 

[MP3Mike]

"Batteries Not Included".

EDIT: Dont' forget that commercial rollout of the Semi will require that the MegaCharger rollout be well underway to provide minimum useful trucking routes. More resources, more time to market.

Not totally. Initial sales could be to customers with routes that were willing to install on-site chargers and had routes that fit with the capacity of the battery. That would help get more testing, and capital, before ramping up production and Megacharger installations.

 

[Krugerrand]

For now, sure - but never say never. At some point it will make sense to update S & X and among other things switch to the new cell form factor. But I expect that Y will be at least partially ramped up past break even before then (as they'd need 3 + Y to be printing money so that they can retool S/X as well as keep everything else such as pickup, Semi, etc on pace, while maintaining positive cashflow). Obviously depends also on timing of growing cell supply to match, which is another reason they'll want 3 and Y both above break even and making heaps of money before retooling S/X for the new cells.

When? When will there be time and make sense? After Y and before pickup? After Y and pickup but before semi? Between Y, Giga 3 and 4 but before Roadster? Or right after solar shingles and megapacks but before EV van?

I contend there is no time and when there is time, it’ll no longer matter enough or make sense to bother doing.

We’ll see but people have been on about major refresh for over a year and nadda. Interior seems likely but no indications yet from Tesla or leaked documentation of battery redesign or significant exterior redesign.

 

[neroden]

Not totally. Initial sales could be to customers with routes that were willing to install on-site chargers and had routes that fit with the capacity of the battery. That would help get more testing, and capital, before ramping up production and Megacharger installations.

Remember, initial Semi sales are going to be to Tesla, and they'll be hauling batteries and car carriers.

 

[oneday]

I don't see any evidence this is in reference to GA4. The description calls it a "huge tent in the holding area" and if you look at the video, it doesn't look like the same spot where GA4 is located.

It doesn't pass the smell test either. Why in the world would they dismantle that miraculous tent only a few months after building it?

Exactly, and in Elon’s leaked email he specifically said get to 1k per day including GA4 (the tent).

 

[MP3Mike]

Remember, initial Semi sales are going to be to Tesla, and they'll be hauling batteries and car carriers.

I think it is good to get some outside usage/feedback early in the process. Other companies/drivers may find/discover/suggest things that Tesla, and it's drivers, don't. So I hope they have at least limited outside early adopter sales of the Semi in addition to the internal use.

 

[Buckminster]

In the prediction thread I said this:
By Christmas, one of Fact Checker, Neroden or Papafox will write a post so insightful that it goes viral and causes a minor squeeze to $550. I have predicted $700 in April - don't want to get ahead of myself...
Elon seems so intent on drying out his powder that it is likely to self combust before he intends to release the hounds.

Neroden replied:
Nothing I have written has ever gone viral.

Now you publish this:

Thanks. This was my March 2017 research note, which I circulated privately at the time, to give friends & organizations I cared about a chance to divest ahead of the curve. Most of the people who got it responded appropriately. The Board of Trustees of the college I graduated from got a copy, but they're still invested in fossil fuels (sigh), so I decided they'd chosen not to use their head start and went ahead and published.

I see what you are doing here but there is no fooling me. I'm not down with the kids but I am fairly sure your essay is a little lengthy to go for viral. Also, first rule of viral club -"cat picture" duh...
There is still 5 weeks to go before I make a fool of my myself with my prediction. If you already have a cat, ask for an early Christmas present - Roomba:

You got this!


Okay, I see you are gonna struggle with this. First consultancy comes free:

How about:

"Cats to buy Tesla autos to get around faster and save the planet from the evil oil Sith"
- Neroden Skywalker

 

[Buckminster]

Elon Musk on Twitter
Starship Enterprise?
Elon has gotten trigger happy with his SpaceX plans recently.

 

[Buckminster]

BYD’s Electric Bus Woes Threaten to Tarnish the Broader Industry

It's unfortunate the BYD is screwing up like this. I'm not sure what the difficulty for a 60' bus is, but Proterra is building a double decker bus. So higher capacity buses are on the way.

I hope Elon doesn't read this article - he will no doubt feel compelled to save the bus industry and re-sequence his priorities. Let them screw it up first - the Semi is enough for starters. Anyway, big battery, big motors - how hard can it be.... If they collectively step up just a little bit the industry will be fairly low margin in a few years.