TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

If the have a 3 year lead now, the competitors need to innovate faster than Tesla to reduce it. If they can't they will never catch up (Tesla will not be sitting still those 3 years pickup, semi, roadster)...

The main competitor to watch for is LG. Where is their battery, how fast are they getting better & cheaper ?

Once the battery is competitive, it won't be difficult for other OEMs to manufacture cars that are somewhat competitive. Afterall that is their core competency.

In the US, others are likely to be at a disadvantage because of charging network. In EU & Japan (I guess China too), because of public sector charger investments, Tesla may not have much of an edge.

 

[Remus]

1. I think Tesla has probably a 3ish year lead. Maybe more.

2. I think Tesla can comfortably take maybe 10% of global market share eventually, but probably not like 30%.

3. I’m thinking on a 20-year timescale, not a 5-year timescale.

Why would Tesla wait for others to catch up?
And Model S came out in 2013, now it is 2018, that is longer than 3 years? and where's the promised Tesla killers again?
For more than a decade, Intel failed to produce a compelling mobile chip set.

Nobody is interested in what you think unless you back it up with convincing arguments. you just assume others will catch up, despite of the facts presented by many people here the incumbents have no interests to chase Tesla at all.

And you haven't answer my question regarding Tesla's advantages that has nothing to do with electrification at all. When do you think toyota/lexus cars will turn itself off after the driver parked the car and left, so that it won't poison people to death? If they can't get this simple thing right, I found it amusing that you have so much confidence on them.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lodger you'll get more........just made it to post 53501 while flipping back/forth to new posts. If everyone could just freeze for an hour please.

An hour? Faq! I slept for 7 last nite, then it took me 5 to catch up this morning!

That's it, I'm cancelling my cable tv. TSLA is the longest running soap on the internet.

 

[mongo]

The main competitor to watch for is LG. Where is their battery, how fast are they getting better & cheaper ?

Once the battery is competitive, it won't be difficult for other OEMs to manufacture cars that are somewhat competitive. Afterall that is their core competency.

In the US, others are likely to be at a disadvantage because of charging network. In EU & Japan (I guess China too), because of public sector charger investments, Tesla may not have much of an edge.

Sure, there is a limit of diminishing returns and as Tesla nears that, catching up will be easier. Other companies can also avoid intervening tech advancement steps. On the other side, Tesla will likely hit the tech limits first and gain that advantage.
Competitors will be able to copy cost saving in architecture by following Tesla advances (open patents), but they will not have the experience to do so as cheaply or effectively (to begin with).

 

[EVNow]

Apple does that by controlling all aspect of their products.

Exactly. Apple's moat is not in their store (not anymore, anyway) - it is in the end to end experience they can guarantee because they control both software and hardware.

The store is important in the sense - a 3rd OS has little chance of success (see Windows Phone) and we are now locked in a duopoly.

 

[strangecosmos]

Benedict Evans makes this argument in his essay “Tesla, software and disruption”:

“Tesla has catalysed the realization that lithium batteries let us make electric cars that are as good as internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, and that if we can get the battery volumes high enough, these cars can eventually be as cheap as ICE cars. ...

Many car industry insiders would say that Tesla has a lead of several years in the engineering and implementation of this. However, lithium batteries and electric motors are not an exotic new technology with lots of primary IP. Nor are there any network effects or ‘winner takes all’ effects. Deterministically, it seems pretty likely that in the medium term (that is, by the time batteries are cheap enough for wholesale conversion of the industry from ICE to electric) both the batteries themselves and the motors and control systems will be mostly commodities. That does not meant there will not still be plenty of science and engineering to them, but rather that just as happened to components for smartphones or PCs (or indeed cars), which also involve a great deal of science and engineering, the entire global electronics industry will be competing to make the best parts, and will sell them to whoever wants to buy.”

If Benedict Evans is correct, that will presumably ultimately compress Tesla’s operating cash flow (OCF) margin.

 

[EVNow]

Competitors will be able to copy cost saving in architecture by following Tesla advances (open patents), but they will not have the experience to do so as cheaply or effectively (to begin with).

Making EVs is not that difficult. Lots of OEMs have credible EV programs and have built a lot of inhouse knowledge on batteries and EV drivetrains.

I think Tesla will continue to have a premium presence in the market (just like Apple) - but other low cost manufacturers are likely to manufacture and sell more cars in the future too. This is why OEMs are more scared of self driving cars that will reduce the total car market (millennials are already not buying as many cars) than EVs.

ps : BMW, Merc and other premium OEMs should be worried about Tesla - not so much VW, Nissan, Toyota or Honda.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I used to go to electrek mainly to read/write comments and because of habit. Not anymore.

Tastes great, less filling:

Disqus Conversations - Electrek

 

[22522]

The main competitor to watch for is LG. Where is their battery, how fast are they getting better & cheaper ?

Once the battery is competitive, it won't be difficult for other OEMs to manufacture cars that are somewhat competitive. Afterall that is their core competency.

In the US, others are likely to be at a disadvantage because of charging network. In EU & Japan (I guess China too), because of public sector charger investments, Tesla may not have much of an edge.

LG will take profits.

 

[mongo]

Making EVs is not that difficult. Lots of OEMs have credible EV programs and have built a lot of inhouse knowledge on batteries and EV drivetrains.

I think Tesla will continue to have a premium presence in the market (just like Apple) - but other low cost manufacturers are likely to manufacture and sell more cars in the future too. This is why OEMs are more scared of self driving cars that will reduce the total car market (millennials are already not buying as many cars) than EVs.

Benedict Evans makes this argument in his essay “Tesla, software and disruption”:

“Tesla has catalysed the realization that lithium batteries let us make electric cars that are as good as internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, and that if we can get the battery volumes high enough, these cars can eventually be as cheap as ICE cars. ...

Many car industry insiders would say that Tesla has a lead of several years in the engineering and implementation of this. However, lithium batteries and electric motors are not an exotic new technology with lots of primary IP. Nor are there any network effects or ‘winner takes all’ effects. Deterministically, it seems pretty likely that in the medium term (that is, by the time batteries are cheap enough for wholesale conversion of the industry from ICE to electric) both the batteries themselves and the motors and control systems will be mostly commodities. That does not meant there will not still be plenty of science and engineering to them, but rather that just as happened to components for smartphones or PCs (or indeed cars), which also involve a great deal of science and engineering, the entire global electronics industry will be competing to make the best parts, and will sell them to whoever wants to buy.”

Sure they can build them, but at what price? Tesla is doing their electronics in house with custom ICs. They make their own high efficiency motors and packs. Even if other OEMs hit equivalent performance, they are still paying higher prices to their suppliers.

I can see a version of the future where Tesla is the pack and motor supplier to other OEMs, if only to increase the production of EVs.

 

[strangecosmos]

Sure they can build them, but at what price? Tesla is doing their electronics in house with custom ICs. They make their own high efficiency motors and packs. Even if other OEMs hit equivalent performance, they are still paying higher prices to their suppliers.

I can see a version of the future where Tesla is the pack and motor supplier to other OEMs, if only to increase the production of EVs.

Read the next few paragraphs of the essay. He addresses that point.

 

[Artful Dodger]

To save you some pages, here’s apparently what happened.

Oh, that video was so close! But really it's more like this:

 

[Artful Dodger]

I can see a version of the future where Tesla is the pack and motor supplier to other OEMs, if only to increase the production of EVs.

Indeed, Tesla's corporate lawyers need to start thinking about anti-trust regulations. I suggest Tesla start by giving Bollinger Motors access to the SC network for their upcoming B2 EV-SUV.

 

[strangecosmos]

Q3 operating cash flow (OCF) of $1.4 billion * 4 quarters = annualized OCF of $5.6 billion

$5.6 billion annualized OCF * Honda’s price/OCF of 5.1 = $28 billion

That’s pretty damn good.

Q3 free cash flow (FCF) of $0.881 billion * 4 quarters - annualized FCF of $3.52 billion

$3.52 billion annualized FCF * Honda’s price/FCF of 8.1 = $28 billion

Damn Daniel

 

[AZRI11]

Not that many people bought the performance upgrade package. Might be a few million dollars.

Including the performance upgrade package in all performance cars (eliminating the "P minus" model) is going to cost them a lot more than the rebates. But I figure it was done to reduce confusion, since the existing situation *was* confusing.

Also to head off any lawsuit. Need to show a physical difference to dual motor, not just a software difference. Some short sellers were making noise on this.

 

[theschnell]

Indeed, Tesla's corporate lawyers need to start thinking about anti-trust regulations. I suggest Tesla start by giving Bollinger Motors access to the SC network for their upcoming B2 EV-SUV.

This is way premature IMO

 

[mongo]

Read the next few paragraphs of the essay. He addresses that point.

Went back, read whole thing, have issues with it. Too long and OT for MA and mobile...

 

[defc0n]

The resistance levels can work this way.

People look at these "thumb rules" and put buy & sell limits. You see people on this thread doing it, for eg. If enough people do it, it actually builds some automatic levels. Even large investment firms / wealthy investors may decide on this strategy. Buy at $x and sell at $y. That is configured in the trading software - and act as real resistance levels, esp when the volume is low. On big news, these levels get blown away because of high volumes and/or enough people move the limits.

In the last 3 months with so many, many bad news items - SP still didn't breach the $250 level, for eg.

Yep it is quite impressive Tesla survived so many events without breaking below $250. A lot of people (yours truly) absolutely had to buy around there, particularly when I noticed it was defended and made me feel super confident with earnings coming up too. I don’t believe a research paper can convince me there wasn’t human psychology involved and that bottom was randomness.

 

[keydiver]

It's not just Fred. He's not the only unhappy owner.

I had to stop reading the TMC "Performance Upgrade Price Change!" thread. It was really pissing me off. Now the people who didn't order the performance package are also insisting on a $5000 refund, because their Model 3 was "devalued overnight".

 

[oneday]

Here’s an interesting conversation about autonomous driving from Lex Fridman a AI research scientist at MIT. Other than the fact it’s a pretty fascinating podcast, up there with Elon’s talk with Joe Rogan. It appears Lex would side with @neroden and thinks FSD is more like 5 years out. I haven’t listened to the whole podcast yet, but the part that talks about autonomous driving and Tesla starts at about 55 minutes in.