TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dqd88]

Something about this doesn't add.

Let's simplify to illustrate.

Let's say there's 10 shares at IPO for Long Corp.

John buys all 10 shares. He then lends 5 shares to short seller Bob. Sam buys said 5 shares from Bob.

End result:
John owns 10 shares
Sam owns 5 shares

Now there are 15 shares floating, instead of the original 10.

What am I missing?

In any case, the increase in supply of shares is inherently dilutive and bad for SP. Basic supply & demand.

If this were done fairly, then each share borrowed should be removed from the market, and put back on the market when it's sold short, thus retaining the original # of shares.

 

[AWDtsla]

Do we know whether they lend their shares?

Do they like money?

I'd actually wonder if Elon lets his shares get lent out. Worth $100-200 million per year?

 

[RobStark]

Probably, but that was before the bizarre incident with the apparently-coerced/kidnapped prime minister of Lebanon, and the kidnapping of all the Saudi billionaires in the hotel... it's all looking very unstable for VIPs to me.

For VIPs that are players in Middle East politics.

 

[avoigt]

Do they like money?

I'd actually wonder if Elon lets his shares get lent out. Worth $100-200 million per year?

Well if we look into his comp plan he will loose way more if the SP does not go up versus a few hundred Million win so thats an easy decision if he would made that math but he won't.

More important, Elon does not do all of this to get rich he is already and has higher objectives he follows.

Most people do not recognize this or even forget it. Tesla is not about making money. Not even about being the largest most profitable auto company in the world although I believe they will be soon.

We should all repeat from time to time to ourselves what we have here in front of us.

 

[AWDtsla]

Probably, but that was before the bizarre incident with the apparently-coerced/kidnapped prime minister of Lebanon, and the kidnapping of all the Saudi billionaires in the hotel... it's all looking very unstable for VIPs to me.

Bizarrely publicized. Like things were better before? These guys were responsible for 9/11 and no one seemed to care about that either. Give it a couple days/weeks, it will blow over and we'll be on to the next outrage.

 

[RobStark]

I'm fine with deals to sell them good projects like solar power. But we should probably stop selling *weapons* to the Saudi monarchy/theocracy.

It would be strategically better if KSA purchased Russian/Chinese weapons.

 

[AWDtsla]

Well if we look into his comp plan he will loose way more if the SP does not go up versus a few hundred Million win so thats an easy decision if he would made that math but he won't.

More important, Elon does not do all of this to get rich he is already and has higher objectives he follows.

Most people do not recognize this or even forget it. Tesla is not about making money. Not even about being the largest most profitable auto company in the world although I believe they will be soon.

We should all repeat from time to time to ourselves what we have here in front of us.

Needs money to fund Boring Company, Neuralink, various SEC fines and stock purchases. Also, BFR.

 

[omarsultan]

In the coverage on the delays for Audi's e-Tron because of software issues (one example here), I have noticed this gem:

Audi was locked in price negotiations with LG Chem, the South-Korean supplier of batteries for its electric vehicles, which wants to increase prices by about 10 percent because of high demand. LG Chem supplies electric vehicle batteries for Audi, its parent Volkswagen Group and Daimler.

More kudos to Elon & Co for having the foresight to invest in GF1 and having control over supply and costs of a critical component.

 

[RobStark]

Do you know why NUMMI used to be able to paint 500k vehicles per year under GM/Toyota while tesla struggle to cover the current volume?

Max NUMMI production was in 1996 at 426k units.

Back when California elected Republican governors and had much lower emission standards.

Now Tesla has the least polluting paint booth on Earth.

Originally designed for VW by Eisenmann SE . But VW later decided it was too expensive.

 

[avoigt]

I wonder why I have not read it or heard it anywhere so decide to post my thought.

The new Mid Range would not be release if they could not build it with profits. Thats the case because profitability and +CF is important to become independent from Wallstreet. That is important in order to accelerate growth and investments and for instance GF4 in Europe. If the MR would still be negative it would not have been released and international would get first P3D deliveries instead.

Based on that thesis you could try to calculate the current cost per kWh. Other assumption needs to be made for it but the MR released is a strong indication that the cost per kWh has been decreased quite significantly.

 

[avoigt]

In the coverage on the delays for Audi's e-Tron because of software issues (one example here), I have noticed this gem:



More kudos to Elon & Co for having the foresight to invest in GF1 and having control over supply and costs of a critical component.

Look at post #16890 General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[AWDtsla]

I wonder why I have not read it or heard it anywhere so decide to post my thought.

The new Mid Range would not be release if they could not build it with profits. Thats the case because profitability and +CF is important to become independent from Wallstreet. That is important in order to accelerate growth and investments and for instance GF4 in Europe. If the MR would still be negative it would not have been released and international would get first P3D deliveries instead.

Based on that thesis you could try to calculate the current cost per kWh. Other assumption needs to be made for it but the MR released is a strong indication that the cost per kWh has been decreased quite significantly.

It's almost impossible that MR doesn't make money. That would have to imply there is negative margin on the whole car, and only positive margin in the battery. The likely scenario is they are cell constrained until new capacity comes online at giga, which means they get to improve utilization of Fremont until that becomes the case, and then SR replaces MR.

Lemurs are the most endangered primates in the world.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Given the default cycle of the mortgage market is so long/complicated, many synthetics (credit default swaps, bonds etc.) were created to hedge the risk, repackaged/retraded multiple times over and this is primarily where the shorts scored big.....on the synthetics. Auto paper is easier to liquidate (repo and resale is quick) and doesn't carry the same default risk, so minimal synthetics are created and therefore no significant market depth/trading liquidity. Even Subprime auto securitizations generally yield nicely and carry ample credit enhancement requirements to cover value changes, again dimishing the risk......making them decent long plays for balance.

Additionally, even if it were easy to short you'd have to be pretty lucky to pick the collapse period. The bonds of all the standalone trades have WALs of less than three years. That is quite a short time to pick the window in such a slow moving technological change.

As soon as lenders see RVs dropping they will build in more conservative assumptions which should work to slow the drop in RV. New vehicles will become more expensive in terms of monthly payments and the lower priced used vehicle will show relative value.

 

[sub]

Are you sure that Fact Checking is ONE person and not an 'information centre'?!

Seems way too brilliant to be one person and the 'Name' is a giveaway...…….

" You answer the engineering bit and I'll tackle the financials and he can do the fill-in bits and we need it by 4.00pm..."

Fact Checking is my “bored Sub” account. Don’t tell anyone.

 

[Navin]

That's some A+ sleuthing! Very interesting.

I hope there is a big deal. But I hope it's kept hush hush until the Khashoggi thing mellows out.

I don't think we or anyone should back out of any deal w/ the Saudi's over the murder. I have a contrarian view - they should have to hire/pay more towards good projects - for stuff like solar that's good for the world - it's a way they can repent.

Wait there is more. Check out this video directly from the Saudi investment conference twitter feed. Check out the SEXy 3 some towards the end

Twitter

 

[dqd88]

Charles Gasparino seems to be warming up a bit to Tesla (and seeing through the BS rhetoric of Fudsters). I would say he's at least close to neutral now.
Charles Gasparino on Twitter
"trolling of $TSLAQ crowd actually had the opposite effect on me. forced me to dive deeper on what @elonmusk created & appreciate his achievement. that doesnt mean i will ignore his abhorrent behavior or the bear case but those dopes were so excessive it made me doubt their case"

And seems to be getting into it w/ shorts more often:
Charles Gasparino on Twitter

 

[RobStark]

BUT which Vienna ?

Vienna Georgia
Vienna California
Vienna Virginia
Vienna Missouri

Surly not Vienna Austria. They don't speak english !

Out of character.
I am amazed how many (as a second or third language) write english with such eloquence.

Such is the case for the global Lingua Franca.

 

[gtrplyr1]

New Ford commercial is trolling Tesla. Even uses paint it black.

Bunch of morons running that company. Their stock and sales are in the toilet, so they pay an actor tons of money to do what? convince the world they are actually the car company of the future? I don't think so.

Just like when Samsung would take shots at Apple .... Ford is feeling the heat and no amount of high paid endorsees will stop what is about to happen to them.

Cheers to the longs

 

[Foghat]

Tesla Passes Mercedes To Become Most Followed Car Brand On Twitter

So Elon’s Fortnite tweet surpasses 1m likes, making it one of the most liked tweets in Twitter history.

Elon’s interview video with Marques Brownlee is the most liked video in the history of Marques Brownlees highly popular product review show on YouTube.

Elon’s interview with Joe Rogan is the most liked video in the highly popular Joe Rogan podcast history on YouTube.

Now Tesla most followed car brand on Twitter.

And in the past couple months of wild times, Elon has added well over a 1 million new Twitter followers to his account.

These metrics are the reality folks.

Hope more begin to see attacks on Elon are very much tied to Tesla and company clear disruption of not just industries but economic establishments in my opinion.

Signal over the noise. And the noise is at 11.

Seeing the current impact on the psychies of naysayers by Elon’s tweets this weekend, comedy is no laughing matter.

 

[sub]

I was reading some negative comments on Fox News a couple of days ago in the comment section of a piece about the $45k M3. I was so shocked to read, "Don't these stupid liberals know that they will never recoup their money on these crappy electric cars? They could have just bought an Accord or Camry and saved $20k."

I didn't even respond. All I could think is, "man, it must be BAD to be THAT stupid and THAT far behind the times."

It's hard to believe there are morons in America that think the reason people are buying Teslas is for saving money on gas.

And as a footnote, of the 20 or 30 Tesla owners I have met, the vast majority have been moderates or conservatives (yes, I ask - typically I start out with, "did you buy your Tesla for the environment", and the conversation goes from there).

When will people get that the reason people buy a Tesla has little or no political bearing? It's just a BETTER car!!

The reasons people buy Tesla’s may vary, and sure there are conservatives that buy them. However, I’m willing to wager that outside of the MSM, an overwhelming percentage of Tesla haters are conservative due to the “green” part of course.