That's why it's more useful to quote bonds as spread over the relevant risk free rate (usually Treasury for fixed rate dollars).
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That's why it's more useful to quote bonds as spread over the relevant risk free rate (usually Treasury for fixed rate dollars).
sundaymorning
Active Member
I definitely don’t want Elon to fight this. The media will have a field day and shorts will parade over this. Just look at the market reaction on when the SEC case was announced and when it was settled. Look at what ensued after the tweet. Just pay off the mafia, take the bullet and move on. It’s time Elon makes it up to shareholders, putting us through production hell... I definitely don’t want to experience SEC hell. Those guys are well connected and even if we win the battle, they can be vindictive and hit back in the future with other things. You’ve made your point Elon, we understand that you are the fall guy in this, but don’t drag shareholders into this, it’s your fiduciary duty to look after shareholders and Tesla. Take the bullet....
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
This is an absurd argument in that it basically presupposes people won't be buying cars in the future! It also totally ignore the fact that most auto purchases are not planned months in advance and an order placed with a waiting period of several weeks much less several months. It's concentrated, liquid bullshit.
I guess by your estimation sales for the Camry and F-150 will collapse as well as people aren't lining up to buy them right now for next July delivery? Of course, your magical assumptions on future sales suspiciously are only applied to Tesla products. As for Troy, according to him I was going to get my Model 3 in November (it was July) and Tesla was SURE to hit 200k in June. I recommend looking for a more accurate prophet!
This type of argument has been made for a long time for the S/X too, where it hasn't panned out even though logic would indicate it to be far more likely for luxury models with smaller markets. You're just dusting it off and rewrapping it for the Model 3 now. I'm going to go cry in my beer now since obviously every LR, AWD, or Performance Model 3 buyer in the world lined up to wait for an extended period for there car- in direct contradiction to about 100 years of car buying behavior.
You might as well argue that the only people who buy iPhones are the ones who line up at the store.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
They already said that. They will allow wholly owned foreign business inside the kingdom. How can that be the announcement?
Neroden, c'mon. There are over 1 billion ICE vehicles in use around the world today with the vast majority over a decade old. The earliest projections for the transition that I have read call for at least 50 years not 12.
Just as Tesla's delivery systems cracked under the strain in Q3, the common belief is the global electrical grids may not even be able to handle the load of the transition until 2050 or later. I guess we could all drive around with tall solar arrays mounted on the roof but I see that as being useful for about 20 miles per day, a safety concern when pulling into a garage, and completely worthless in winter
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
How do we know it's Tesla related? Got any link where the prince says that?
beachbum77 said:
I'll likely regret responding, but...
Regarding the spreadsheet, you understand that it's expected that the sheet will track reality with less and less accuracy over time, right? A long-time reservation-holder who's super-duper excited and has been following the development of the car for years is far more likely to locate and participate in an internet community effort to track the minutia of order/delivery status. Over time the percentage of buyers participating in such an effort will drop. With the 3 in the US (in currently-available configs, at least) largely reaching no-reservation status, we're likely seeing this. There is no chance that there's a 'rapid decline' in demand. If this was the case, we'd have already seen other markets or configs open up. Further, this same argument was made with the initial S configs, then with the expanded-market S as guidance rose from 20k/year to 50k/year. We're still not seeing a drop in demand, 6 years into the vehicle's life. Then the same argument was made about the X. Also hasn't come to pass. So you'll forgive me when I wait for far more concrete data than 'your spreadsheets' before I worry.
As for # in transit, this was specifically guided for--deliveries were guided higher than production. The natural result is in-transit units dropping.
Come on--you're claiming with one side of your mouth that there's a large drop in demand, and with the other that Tesla is selling their vehicles too quickly. Pick one.
Where on earth did you get that from my remarks? The growth PACE was what I was referring to not overall sales. Look at Model S and X sales growth over the last 5 quarters. They only spike as a result of discounts and incentives but for the most part are flat. I see Model 3 production globally peaking at about 8-9,000 per week. Model Y will seriously eat into that number so we can expect to see both built on the same production lines like S & X.
NO need to get emotional. It is just an opinion.
Enough of you. I can get a parrot if I want hear the same old lame stuff over and over. Ignored
Esme Es Mejor
Member
The yield on the TSLA bonds has risen 54%. The 10-year treasury has risen by 46% over the same time period. So 85% of the change in TSLA’s yield is explained by the rising interest environment, and about 15% is explained by increased perceived risk. I think Q3 results will eliminate that perception of increased risk.
for big companies yes. What this clown forgets to mention is the obvious fact that banks making offers=Tesla solvable.
Nobody is going to do refinancing of a dying company. The level of debt is not sufficient to make Tesla hijacked by creditors.
About SA, I don't believe in any significant movements of Tesla in the region or any serious contracts.
It is common there to negotiate till down, and don't discount if you have a higher hand. Going open and disclosing his contacts before final signatures Musk put himself in vulnerable position, which means changing contract conditions on a fly and continuous pressure from both sides. I wouldn't be surprised if the changes of conditions by "investors" were coordinated with MM and SEC actions.
You don't deal in the middle East on equal "partner" conditions. Nobody will understand that. He will find "surprises" in China as well...
It would be stock price manipulation and worthy of a jail sentence. So NO, he did not do that. He might act a little crazy but I doubt he has gone insane.
they have to use for analysis bonds next to expire. But they won't because there is nothing to FUD there.
to take you guys mind of the stock for a few minutes
Getting ready to open European shipments?... That's my guess.
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Tesla just had a discussion that cars are batch built and then matched up to buyer orders by their Logistics team. These same people were the ones canceling deliveries to East Coaster's so that they could be sold sooner to people out west before 9/30. Did not matter if cars were already paid for or not. You will find all of this in the TMC threads.For the Model 3 it's even better than that: at the end of Q3 Tesla's Model 3 inventory was less than 3 days of production at 4.1k/week:
I.e. Tesla only had 1,985 Model 3's on inventory at the end of 3Q2018, and that included showroom cars, test-drive cars and any residual inventory in transit.
Those are incredibly low inventory levels, and it's because Tesla's are already sold before they are made, and because of the very effective delivery push at the end of Q3.
Nice to see people re-posting my chart. You must not have me on "ignore"
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NikeWings
Active Member
HA HA but NO@NikeWings Does this count as my working?
only because we can all learn from each other. See my note below. Hi FC......that's close except you are rationalizing why the bond is trading at a 15% discount, not the argument presented by @CorneliusXX which was a 15% discount was due to the increased interest rates. We agree, its not solely the interest rate driving a 15% discount.
If factoring only the increase in yield, your math is off just slightly since you used maturity instead of duration. Using correct duration/treasuries its roughly 1.5% issuance delta x ~5.5 duration for 8.25% discount vs.15% current trade level. That was the simple point......even in a rising rate environment, this bond is trading with a steeper discount than it should. You took a crack at explaining away the difference as equity sentiment, but I would argue the other way around. And that's an age old debate.
Good show.
X Fan
Active Member
“Banks only want to offer you money when you don't need it".
That's changed a bit these days.
Similar to the Mafia of old, many PE firms will loan you the money with the expection that you can’t pay it off.
Ultimate goal = to take control of the company.
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