You don’t. Toughen up and take your losses. Write off your obsolete infrastructure. Make your investments. Get hammered by the financial parasites as they drive down your stock with glee and anger. Recover and survive. Alternative? Bankwupt.
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You don’t. Toughen up and take your losses. Write off your obsolete infrastructure. Make your investments. Get hammered by the financial parasites as they drive down your stock with glee and anger. Recover and survive. Alternative? Bankwupt.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Don't forget Toyota and the other Japanese sedan makers. The Model 3 had higher gross sales in August than the Camry, and Tesla reported that Japanese cars were among the top trade-ins from Model 3 customers. And all this before the $25K Tesla becomes available next decade. Telsa will drown the Japanese majors like a tsunami unless they start tooling up now.
Isn't Waymo considered the leader of the pack? Of course, we haven't had our first snow day in Chandler, AZ yet (LIDAR limits autonomy to fair weather driving).
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
The other alternative is to do nothing and only pay lip service to the EV transition:
- 3-5 more years of golden, profitable quarters with fat bonuses, maybe even 5-10 years if they believe their own FUD
- Pure EV makers might mess up: for example Tesla just gave them an extra year with the Model 3 delays.
- Struggling EV makers could even be bought: VW was ready to take equity in Tesla, in the 30b dollars go-private bid ...
- Struggling EV makers could even be helped to ... struggle a bit more. A FUD campaign perhaps? Some regulatory trouble? Political shenanigans?
- There's a big risk in going through an EV transition you are not equipped for.
- Since even despite best efforts an EV transition might fail, not being seen as the one who drove the company into failure has value too ...
ZachF
Active Member
There is something that the "OEMs are going to easily crush Tesla once they want to" crowd don't acknowledge, that the way many OEMs are structured a persistent and permanent 5% drop in ICE car sales per year is going to put them at a structural loss right at the same time they need to make large CAPEX expenditures to retool towards EVs.
Just look at the US automakers circa 2004-2007, persistent sales declines of 5-8% were enough to perennially put them in the red for billions. Much of the automakers have been making money now because sales have grown, but you're now starting to see them guide lower as sales stall/decline as interest rates naturally rise, the backlog of old cars the needed to be replaced during the downturn is filled, and sales normalize towards their 16.5m/year "good economy" pace.
It also looks like ICE sales peaked in 2016, this year sales are trending towards the high 16 millions, and sales continue to drop, while EV sales grow 30-50%/year... Take a look at this, and note that 2018 and after are my estimations
Year, total sales, EV sales, ICE sales
2011: 12,777k 17k 12,660k
2012: 14,493k 53k 14,440k
2013: 15,597k 98k 15,499k
2014: 16,519k 122k 16,397k
2015: 17,472k 116k 17,356k
2016: 17,611k 159k 17,452k
2017: 17,234k 199k 17,035k
-------------------------------------------------estimates below
2018: 16,800k 310k 16,490k
2019: 16,500k 500k 16,000k
2020: 16,500k 700k 15,800k
The beginning of the end of ICE cars may already be at hand... Once EV penetration gets high enough, I bet there will be a negative feedback loop that will force ICE sales (and total sales) lower as higher depreciation rates on ICE cars hurts the collateralization model for financing, forcing higher interest rates, higher down payments, and shorter financing periods (and therefor higher payments) Making new ICE purchases unaffordable for many that want one.
The introduction of autonomy is the wild card, once that happens it will be the nail in the coffin for ICE... ICE autonomous cars are totally uncompetitive with AEVs from the start. The depreciation curve of any car that is not an autonomous capable EV will be Thelma and Louise like.
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ZachF
Active Member
Also, when the death cycle begins and ICE automakers are closing factories, Companies that don't have the Albatross of stranded ICE capital around their necks (Like Tesla) will be able to come in and buy these old factories for much less than a new one.
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
Thanks to all who played (Hogfighter and Gene).
Gene was trading on Insider Information.....and he got two out of three correct. Hogfighter one out of three.
“Just use logic”:
Notice there are two open garage doors, and there are two Teslas that are rear-facing just in front of those doors; all others are forward-facing. Which vehicles are likely to have emanated from the garages? Bingo! - logical choice. Our green 2013 P85 Model S, and our blue 2017 P100DL Model X. Also note there is one very, very outlying non-Tesla, otherwise not likely to have driven up to a Tesla-fest: our mint-condition 1988 FJ62 Land Cruiser (thanks for the help, Gene!).
There is, btw, one more vehicle hardly visible behind the African sumac, next to the Guest House - mom-in-law’s RAV. But that’s not ours.
Gene: we are still going to be selling the house. Arizona is too hot for me, even as a winter home. But it’s a really nice house - anyone interested? 11kW Solar City system included, of course. Shameless link here:
Thanks to all who played (Hogfighter and Gene).
Gene was trading on Insider Information.....and he got two out of three correct. Hogfighter one out of three.
“Just use logic”:
Notice there are two open garage doors, and there are two Teslas that are rear-facing just in front of those doors; all others are forward-facing. Which vehicles are likely to have emanated from the garages? Bingo! - logical choice. Our green 2013 P85 Model S, and our blue 2017 P100DL Model X. Also note there is one very, very outlying non-Tesla, otherwise not likely to have driven up to a Tesla-fest: our mint-condition 1988 FJ62 Land Cruiser (thanks for the help, Gene!).
There is, btw, one more vehicle hardly visible behind the African sumac, next to the Guest House - mom-in-law’s RAV. But that’s not ours.
Gene: we are still going to be selling the house. Arizona is too hot for me, even as a winter home. But it’s a really nice house - anyone interested? 11kW Solar City system included, of course. Shameless link here:
We, I made two out of three. I could not remember what color your S was. The blue Model X, I remember well. Your house is absoluteley fabulous. And Wickenberg is a really nice town to be in. Also, in case anyone is interested the guest house is super nice and I guess 500-600sq ft. Makes for a great Air B&B.
Tiger
Active Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I hate to bring NIO back into this thread but there will of course be inevitable comparisons. I disagree with this author as to what makes NIO "special" as opposed to Tesla: Stop Calling Nio the Chinese Tesla: It Has a MUCH Brighter Future
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
The comment, “Tesla gave their advantage away with the slow ramping of the Model 3” is bogus. Tesla has given away their advantage from the very, very, very beginning. You could look at the pretty pictures like me or read all about it.
Electric or alternative fuel cars have been wanted, desired and coveted almost as long as I have been driving ~ starting with shoving a corn cob up the exhaust pipe back in the late seventies, okay a little crude, sorry ~ okay not totally sorry.
Every fossil fuel corporation (cars, buses, trucks, lawnmowers, gas stations and the list goes on indefinitely) anywhere on the face of the earth knew long before me in my college class back in the dark ages of 1974 that our resources were peeking. Hell the gold diggers of ‘49 figured it out during the California gold rush.
Tesla gave fair warning of what they were doing with the Model 3, then they short sheeted the Elitests by announcing instead of 2020 production of the Model 3, Tesla jumped through their buttocks for 2017. Unfortunately we all sat in front of the TV assuming thousands a week would be produced at the flip of a switch. And, I am sure a well meaning individual told his boss, who told her boss, who told his boss that he would make it so. After all it all added up.
Stop and look at the Bloomberg bar chart reflecting weekly production numbers/estimates. Tesla peeks for a week or two; now I am assuming ~ here, they conduct an after action review, identify the things that worked well and those that did not. If people additions are involved or deletions there is training involved. If there is equipment involved made from scratch or modified there is time and money involved. Do not forget the real estate requirements. Once all is said and done, we see a jump in production; I am crossing my fingers the 6K a week threshold is about to become the norm as the next growth spurt is tested.
Tesla has always worked from the top down, hence the roadster, Model S, the Model X and now the higher end Model 3. If you think for a new york minute that the base model 3 will not sell, then maybe you should rethink your brain tooling. Maybe you think all those base model 3 buyers are giving up on Tesla; then you should sell the stock now ~ quick before the price goes up ~ please feel free to act on history.
Toyota said over a year ago they were taking one of the family VPs and moving towards EVs; damned crickets always interrupting me. Militarily, you throw off the enemy by acting like you are going left, when in reality you are going right. Or, or you lie by putting out what look like tanks, but are really balloons. Someone tried that by falsifying EPA test results and it cost them dearly, including jail time. Instead of aiming for better mileage or alternative fuel sources the answer is to do away with the EPA.
Have any of you seen evacuation routes from storms with prepositioned fossil fuel sites providing free gas for gasoline cars. Yeah, NO, me either. What’s that, Tesla has and is ~ oh yeah
Tesla has been giving everything away to include patients, so Elon give away ~ GM, you keep joking about EVs, maybe ~ what’s that you are crying wolf again?
Electric or alternative fuel cars have been wanted, desired and coveted almost as long as I have been driving ~ starting with shoving a corn cob up the exhaust pipe back in the late seventies, okay a little crude, sorry ~ okay not totally sorry.
Every fossil fuel corporation (cars, buses, trucks, lawnmowers, gas stations and the list goes on indefinitely) anywhere on the face of the earth knew long before me in my college class back in the dark ages of 1974 that our resources were peeking. Hell the gold diggers of ‘49 figured it out during the California gold rush.
Tesla gave fair warning of what they were doing with the Model 3, then they short sheeted the Elitests by announcing instead of 2020 production of the Model 3, Tesla jumped through their buttocks for 2017. Unfortunately we all sat in front of the TV assuming thousands a week would be produced at the flip of a switch. And, I am sure a well meaning individual told his boss, who told her boss, who told his boss that he would make it so. After all it all added up.
Stop and look at the Bloomberg bar chart reflecting weekly production numbers/estimates. Tesla peeks for a week or two; now I am assuming ~ here, they conduct an after action review, identify the things that worked well and those that did not. If people additions are involved or deletions there is training involved. If there is equipment involved made from scratch or modified there is time and money involved. Do not forget the real estate requirements. Once all is said and done, we see a jump in production; I am crossing my fingers the 6K a week threshold is about to become the norm as the next growth spurt is tested.
Tesla has always worked from the top down, hence the roadster, Model S, the Model X and now the higher end Model 3. If you think for a new york minute that the base model 3 will not sell, then maybe you should rethink your brain tooling. Maybe you think all those base model 3 buyers are giving up on Tesla; then you should sell the stock now ~ quick before the price goes up ~ please feel free to act on history.
Toyota said over a year ago they were taking one of the family VPs and moving towards EVs; damned crickets always interrupting me. Militarily, you throw off the enemy by acting like you are going left, when in reality you are going right. Or, or you lie by putting out what look like tanks, but are really balloons. Someone tried that by falsifying EPA test results and it cost them dearly, including jail time. Instead of aiming for better mileage or alternative fuel sources the answer is to do away with the EPA.
Have any of you seen evacuation routes from storms with prepositioned fossil fuel sites providing free gas for gasoline cars. Yeah, NO, me either. What’s that, Tesla has and is ~ oh yeah
Tesla has been giving everything away to include patients, so Elon give away ~ GM, you keep joking about EVs, maybe ~ what’s that you are crying wolf again?
Krugerrand
Meow
Agreed. Start from scratch with a totally new BMW EV business. Take an old factory, redo it for EVs, hire new people, maybe retrain a handful of your best legacy employees, invest, do it right, grow the business and kill your other division. It’s the only way I can see it done successfully.
Krugerrand
Meow
Um...Tesla is a year ahead with the Model 3.
ZachF
Active Member
I can't remember where I got the data originally, but here is Goodcarbadcar, it's within a few thousand of what I posted:
Overall U.S. Auto Industry Sales Figures – Monthly And Yearly
EV sales data is from Insideevs
ICE sales is just subtraction of the insideEVs numbers from the total numbers
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Bless its heart, they gave it a double Edsel-face. I’m sure it deserves better. Sigh, maybe it’s a case of concept-itis and it will get better.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
As opposed to the top trade-ins for BMW 3 Series and Audi A4?
It is the natural progression that as people get older, they make more money and buy more expensive cars.
Some of those trade-ins would have surely bought another Camry,Corolla,Prius,Accord, and Civic if Tesla did not exist.
Others would have bought 3 Series, A4, and C Class.
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beautiful property Aud!
i go to AZ every mar/apr with my uncle and some friends to golf. we usually stay in scottsdale area and golf at places within 1/2 hour, but the exceptions are quintero...and now
this past april we played wickenburg ranch, absolutely gorgeous course.
Put John Daly behind a #1-driver at the 10th hole of The Outlaw, and he might just be able to reach our house, although we’re obviously not part of Wickenburg Ranch (as the video shows, it’s wonderfully isolated: the only house at the end of a private road off a private road off a private road).
Back when Merv Griffin owned it, Jenny babysat at Wickenburg Ranch, and her mom worked there.
Okay, I’ll stop there before Lord Vetinari steps in. But, as noted, it is a really, really nice house. Anyone interested please PM me.
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