TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

Indeed, Tesla shareholders appear fearful and short sellers hopeful of disappointing February delivery numbers being reported by InsideEVs, possibly as soon as tomorrow. As you imply, those numbers have already been hashed out here at TMC, at Bloomberg and elsewhere. There should be no surprises, unless to the upside. Apprehension presents buying opportunities. Once InsideEVs reports its Tesla guestimates, I would expect a relief rally. If so, technically that would confirm a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A few minutes ago I added some call options.

What's the timeframe on your call options?

I'm trying to adjust my estimate for the Q1. We're currently not seeing any VIN above 8000s, taking out the ~2500 built in 2017, I'd say we're at 5500 produced in Q1. Now the recent batch of invitation looks ~50% larger than previous batch, as pointed out earlier in the thread. Assuming the size of past invitation scales with the current avg of ~800/wk, maybe then this 50% larger invitation signals that the new production rate will start at 1200/wk after the retooling is done, maybe starting next week. Lets also assume it ramps to a 2500/wk sustained rate by the last week of March, this would give us ~7500 produced for March, and gives 13K for Q1 total production. I think if you ask TMC members a month ago, many would say 13K is not a stellar #. But now it looks 13K for Q1 may be the best case scenario that we can hope for, and it could depend on a big if that Tesla can ramp to 2500/wk sustained rate at the end of Q1. Also considering the retooling, Q1 margin may look worse than people expect.

So my gut feeling is that this retooling will make Q1 result look pretty bad. PPS could take a hit in early Apr after Tesla announces the production/delivery #. If they somehow pull off a sustained rate of 2500/wk by the end of March, there may still be another hit in early-mid May when they announces quarterly result. I'd be afraid to touch any short term option based on this. Also by April, J19s will be <9 months away, and no longer considered long term. So at this point the only option I would feel comfortable touching is J20s. I also think there will be plenty more attractive entry points, at least in March.

 

[22522]

IT could disruption due to increasing the efficiency of the internal material movement system they referred to.

When a line is starving, one discovers that the process is "space bound" or volume or flow area constrained.

Higher flow can require completely removing what is there...

I think you are onto something.

If you think about when these starving, can't get there from here, situations happen, you limp for a while. Then do surgery when you get a break, or natural break point.

Does the 200,000 domestic delivery make that natural place to restructure somewhere between now and mid May?

 

[mongo]

When a line is starving, one discovers that the process is "space bound" or volume or flow area constrained.

Higher flow can require completely removing what is there...

I think you are onto something.

If you think about when these starving, can't get there from here, situations happen, you limp for a while. Then do surgery when you get a break, or natural break point.

Does the 200,000 domestic delivery makes that natural place to restructure somewhere between now and mid May?

They could endure the pain now, knowing they will need to eventually. At the lower volumes, they may be able to (inefficiently) stage parts at the line for bursts production with a manual/ partially implemented system. This allows them to meet the lower targets while upgrading. But once things start moving post GF upgrade, they need the real deal. They will also hurt more for each day of down time (5x volume per day).

 

[Big Earl]

They could endure the pain now, knowing they will need to eventually. At the lower volumes, they may be able to (inefficiently) stage parts at the line for bursts production with a manual/ partially implemented system. This allows them to meet the lower targets while upgrading. But once things start moving post GF upgrade, they need the real deal. They will also hurt more for each day of down time (5x volume per day).

Right. Slow-downs now are preferred to slow-downs later that could have cascading effects through the supply chain. Suppliers (Gigafactory included) haven't ramped up their production yet, so an upset at the factory isn't as big of a deal.

 

[mongo]

Right. Slow-downs now are preferred to slow-downs later that could have cascading effects through the supply chain. Suppliers (Gigafactory included) haven't ramped up their production yet, so an upset at the factory isn't as big of a deal.

With the new automated storage buildings, Fremont can queue up a lot of parts fro the suppliers, but then they are paying on the unused inventory instead of getting paid for cars before they pay for the pieces.

 

[bonaire]

With the new automated storage buildings, Fremont can queue up a lot of parts fro the suppliers, but then they are paying on the unused inventory instead of getting paid for cars before they pay for the pieces.

Completed cars are worth more than parts inventory.
Maybe they can pay suppliers in finished cars?

 

[Skryll]

Completed cars are worth more than parts inventory.
Maybe they can pay suppliers in finished cars?

That would be an excellent manager bonus the suppliers could dish out on their end

 

[Ulmo]

I fear if we don't see evidence of increased production rate, not just invites, that we will be giving these gains back.

As I said, yeah, short term. Here it is, the short term giveback. Then, regular deliveries start, and new configs ramp up. Then we see the value of the models in the market.

 

[MP3Mike]

Non-glass roof (is that still a thing?) would take some welding downtime to implement.

Edit: followed by paint booth update

@mongo I don't think we know that at all. It could just be a black metal panel that gets inserted just like the glass. (Or it could be painted to be body color.)

By I highly doubt there will be any welding involved. (The hole is likely there for a reason.)

 

[mongo]

@mongo I don't think we know that at all. It could just be a black metal panel that gets inserted just like the glass. (Or it could be painted to be body color.)

By I highly doubt there will be any welding involved. (The hole is likely there for a reason.)

I used to be on the assemble-the-interior-through-the-roof team, until I saw the dual front seat installation robots.
Good point though, it could be a bonded piece instead of a new panel.

 

[Richgoogol]

Bought 100 shs @ 342.50 Hopefully this is it

 

[Jayjs20]

Bought 100 shs @ 342.50 Hopefully this is it

I don't know about that. For the first time in a long time, I'm more concerned about macros than I am about TSLA.

 

[Reciprocity]

I am thinking interiors as well. There are as many people waiting for non pup and other interior options. The timing would be interesting as it would signify a new confidence in the production ramp. You dont add that mess on top of a production system that has issues. You wait until you feel confident. The alternative is that some supplier issue just cropped up out of no where after invites went out.

Pics of the Dual motor model 3 found in the wild also has white interior.. coincidence?

Pictures of production Model 3s

 

[MartinAustin]

Dangit! I was hoping for a lower price, but now its going back up. C'mon, shorts, you know you want it.

Did you get what you wanted?

I personally wouldn't be surprised if it continues lower this week, and even down to the $305 level again.

Insideevs' guesswork for February comes out tomorrow, and I don't think they will be kind.

(Eventually though, TSLA is unassailably headed higher to $400 once the Model 3 ramp matures)

 

[elasalle]

Pics of the Dual motor model 3 found in the wild also has white interior.. coincidence?

Pictures of production Model 3s

Hope they don't use AWD/white interior as an excuse as to why they could not reach 2.5K/week.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Hope they don't use AWD/white interior as an excuse as to why they could not reach 2.5K/week.

I think bears will spin it that Tesla is not seeing enough demand for LR+PUP so they're scrambling to rush AWD and white interior out in order to boost demand.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I think bears will spin it that Tesla is not seeing enough demand for LR+PUP so they're scrambling to rush AWD and white interior out in order to boost demand.

I think the spin is 2500/w times weeks in Q1 will be the expected number. Obviously this isn’t the case therefore it leads to FUD article left and right. High chance after Q1 numbers we drop.

I sold a little at 345 and had 1.5x more limit order at 365. Didn’t fill. I don’t see a big drop from now to the Q1 release. We will likely hover +\-20 range.

 

[Reciprocity]

When a line is starving, one discovers that the process is "space bound" or volume or flow area constrained.

Higher flow can require completely removing what is there...

I think you are onto something.

If you think about when these starving, can't get there from here, situations happen, you limp for a while. Then do surgery when you get a break, or natural break point.

Does the 200,000 domestic delivery make that natural place to restructure somewhere between now and mid May?

If the line is starving at 800/w, something went terribly wrong with the original design of the factory.

 

[jhm]

Did you get what you wanted?

I personally wouldn't be surprised if it continues lower this week, and even down to the $305 level again.

Insideevs' guesswork for February comes out tomorrow, and I don't think they will be kind.

(Eventually though, TSLA is unassailably headed higher to $400 once the Model 3 ramp matures)

No. But a few weeks ago I scored some at $315, so I'm good for a while.

 

[geneclean55]

I think the spin is 2500/w times weeks in Q1 will be the expected number. Obviously this isn’t the case therefore it leads to FUD article left and right. High chance after Q1 numbers we drop.

I sold a little at 345 and had 1.5x more limit order at 365. Didn’t fill. I don’t see a big drop from now to the Q1 release. We will likely hover +\-20 range.

With Bloomberg model 3 tracker, twitter model3 VINS, Inside EV monthly estimates, bears won't be waiting for the q1 report to write FUD articles. Look for buying opportunities prior to report, and relief rally upon report IMO.