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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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There are special SEC rules for employees of private firms to allow them to buy shares of the firm. However, if employees leave the firm the shares must be sold back to the special fund that handles those shares. Tesla employees would be allowed the same rules if the company went private. But as far as outside shareholders who are not accredited, they will be forced to sell.
This falls into the category of postings our esteemed moderator warned about. We have no idea of the details of any such mechanism, so we should avoid making pronouncements about how they would work. I have no idea, and you don't either.
 
October 2008 Volkswagen short squeeze timeline:

So I did a bit of Volkswagen short squeeze archaeology.

Volkswagen is trading on a number of instruments, but their main instrument is "Volkswagen AG ST O.N." on XETRA, which was squeezed the hardest in 2008.

You can follow part of the squeeze on the Yahoo Finance chart as well:

VOW.DE : Summary for VOLKSWAGEN AG ST O.N. - Yahoo Finance

NOTE: Curiously the Yahoo Finance data for the key 2008.10.28 day of the short squeeze has been edited for unknown reasons, but it's not the correct historic price action of that day: the short squeeze spike has been edited away in the Yahoo data. In my post I'm using accurate historic data, but the data source is not public so I cannot link to it.

Here's the timeline of the Volkswagen short squeeze:
  • Firstly, in August and September of 2008 the pre-squeeze Volkswagen price levels were fluctuating in a relatively narrow band around ~200€, on a low 1-3M shares/day volume, with low volatility, up to 2008.09.12.
  • On 2008.09.15 (a Monday) volume spiked up: this was I believe mostly due to the global effects of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, not directly related to the impending Volkswagen short squeeze.
  • On 2008.10.24 (Friday) Just before the short squeeze there was a daily low of 201€ on average post-Lehman volume levels, with a closing price of 210.9€.
  • Over the weekend the Porsche broke: Porsche revealed in a surprise announcement on Sunday that it had effectively gained control of 74 percent of Volkswagen’s voting shares. With Lower Saxony owning another 20% stake the possible float reduced to just 6% - while the short interest was larger than this, around 13%.
  • On 2008.10.27 (Monday) On this news all hell broke loose: a brutal gap to 350€ on open and an intraday spike to 635€ on heavy volume, 520€ closing price. Speculation: the daily low is documented as 471€, which means that the opening price probably went up monotonically in the first tick and never dropped below 471€ - and only few shorts got execution at the 350€ opening price. So the true opening gap was probably around +123%, and this probably instantly margin-called a lot of shorts who probably had cash collateral posted at around 100%.
  • On 2008.10.28 The next day (Tuesday) was the height of the short squeeze: open on 500€, intraday spike to 1005€ (!), a low of 471€, closing price of 945€, very close to the high.
  • On 2008.10.29 On Wednesday the wildest part of the short squeeze was over, the high was to 607.1€
  • Price and volume slowly went down over the week, but still closed at EUR 499.5 on Friday - which was the end of month as well. Within 4 weeks the price was back to 255 levels.
Permanent short squeeze price effects: note that price remained at elevated +20% levels despite the biggest financial crisis raging: I'd guess this was in part the anti-dilutive effect of many shorts closing.

In case you distrust my data based on the edited Yahoo Finance chart you can see the spike to just beyond 1000€ in this contemporary Reuters article as well:

Short sellers make VW the world's priciest firm

In that chart you can see how the price shot up to 1000 a couple of times in the first hour of trading before settling down to lower levels - and then spiking up again for the close of the day (not visible on that ticker chart yet).

Executive summary:

  • During the October 2008 Volkswagen short squeeze the share price gapped up by over +102% on the opening of the first day of the squeeze and went from 210.9€ to 1005€ within two trading sessions, a 4.7x (+370%) increase.
  • Extreme price levels (compared to the pre-squeeze price) lasted a full week, 5 trading sessions.
  • Post short squeeze price levels remained elevated at +20%, despite the end of 2008 financial crisis raging.

This summary is wrong. The volume spike of September 15 was accompanied with a 50% surge in the stock price in the following days, so it clearly is not related to Lehman debacle. Also, why did you skip the one-week period, just before the squeeze, when the stock halved?
 
i posted this days ago, but its probably tough to find now. probably 100 pages ago!

leaps will amend to an accelerated expiration (to the effective date of the corp action) and will deliver whatever the corp action terms are.

if cash, than cash, etc. they won’t deliver private eq shares obviously.
Hmm interesting, not sure I've got my head wrapped around that. So you're saying they basically get turned into short-term options? Shouldn't all the leaps have tanked then since most of their premiums are now moot assuming it goes private within months?
 
Just as with Solarcity, market uncertainty will persist right until the day the deal is done. And it could easily take 6 months to finalize this deal. Of course, the uncertainty discount will narrow the closer we get to closing date...
So if they are at $420 now and they haven't posted a profitable quarter in five years, what if the deal isn't done until after a quarter or two of profits?
 
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I'm sorry for raising some fear, but I have to ask.

The last corner legally devised (outside of Porsche's) is Piggy Wiggly. Shorters wanted to drive down Piggy Wiggly's stock. The owner took it upon himself and took out a large loan and devised a clever way to create a corner on the shares to screw the short sellers. Everything went according to plan, except the exchange decided to save the short sellers of a short squeeze by temporarily suspending the rule that shorts only have 2 days to buy back their shares, and allowed them 5 days to give them more time to find sellers. This caused a much softer short squeeze that prevented him from setting the price to sell to shorts, which financially ruined the owner.

We all know Wall Street does not play fair, and will protect their own even if it means bending or outright breaking laws. If a VW like short squeeze happens, shorts can potentially lose 50+ billion, and will bankrupt many firms on the street. Do you think there's a chance that Wall Street will find an illegal way to save the shorts from a short squeeze?
 
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On the SEC inquery/investigation thing, is that the SEC will levy a payable fine for being too loose with the facts. Elon will not be going to jail.

At this point it is pretty much a binary issue (as someone posted up thread).

If Elon has all his ducks lined up with documents dated pre-8-7-18, illustrating the secured funding--no harm, no foul. SEC will close the inquiry and the shorts will be scorched. Oral assertions may not suffice.

Even if there is any hair on how secure the funding was, the SEC may well decide a slap on the wrist is the expedient resolution.

However, do not be so confident that a fine is "the worst that will happen." Evidentiary standards for discretionary regulatory criminal and civil enforcement are stricter than in civil litigation and the adversarial lawyers (often on contingency) are far more aggressive. Anyone who has been a putative beneficiary of the civil ligation that piggy-backs off federal regulatory actions knows that, while the terms of the federal Settlement Agreements may be sealed, the discovery leading up to those resolutions may be subject to FOIA and is often a fertile precursor for more penetrating Interrogatories or Requests for Production/Admissions.

It's entertaining what ever ensues. Just do not bet more than you can lose (loose).

TLDR: hedge in either direction.
 
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I'm sorry for raising some fear, but I have to ask.

The last corner legally devised (outside of Porsche's) is Piggy Wiggly. Shorters wanted to drive down Piggy Wiggly's stock. The owner took it upon himself and took out a large loan and devised a clever way to create a corner on the shares to screw the short sellers. Everything went according to plan, except the exchange decided to save the short sellers of a short squeeze by temporarily suspending the rule that shorts only have 2 days to buy back their shares, and allowed them 5 days to give them more time to find buyers.

We all know Wall Street does not play fair, and will protect their own even if it means bending or outright breaking laws. If a VW like short squeeze happens, shorts can potentially lose 50+ billion, and will bankrupt many firms on the street. Do you think there's a chance that Wall Street will find an illegal way to save the shorts from a short squeeze?
Wall Street will always find a way to protect their own. How many firms failed in 2008 before the government stepped in?
 
Hmm interesting, not sure I've got my head wrapped around that. So you're saying they basically get turned into short-term options? Shouldn't all the leaps have tanked then since most of their premiums are now moot assuming it goes private within months?

https://www.theocc.com/webapps/infomemos?number=33480&date=201310&lastModifiedDate=09/13/2014+09:49:55

yes. the link is how the OCC treated dells options when they did their deal

the time value portion of the premiums on the leaps may decrease but we don’t know the effective date of tesla event yet so it’s hard to tell by how much
 
Instead of writing condescending responses to any posts you feel are less than 100% supportive of everything Elon, perhaps you could share the links to the many articles/videos that only your eyes have read/watched.

I’m not privvy to any articles or videos that everyone else isn’t. But I do understand human behavior better than most.

I don’t 100% support everything Elon. What I choose to do is keep my criticisms of the man and company to myself. Having not walked in his shoes, that’s only fair.

Because based on the articles and interviews that are available to the rest of us it would seem that Elon not only doesn't need your backup he would probably find it as off-putting as many of us do.

Maybe, maybe not.

For those who find me off-putting, condescending or any other non-desirable personality trait, please exercise your right and ability to scroll past and ignore me. In return as a courtesy, I’ll make a note not to further engage you.

The vast majority of this forum is pro-Tesla and huge Elon fans as it is.

That is true. I don’t understand what point you’re trying to make. Is it that because the forum is mostly pro-Tesla and huge Elon fans that I/we should go out of my/our way to be con-Tesla and anti-Elon?

You can PM to continue the discussion if you want.
 
This is exactly the premise of the trade thread I posted on here a couple of days ago. Link at the bottom.

Long dated leaps (jan 20) are trading at a significant premium to jan 19 leaps. You can buy 370 strike jan 19 calls and sell 400 strike jan 20 calls for a nice net credit (!!!). When the option is accelerated, lets say to Jan '19, you would end up with a vertical spread that you can sell or hold on till expiry to make $30. This trade also requires very limited portfolio margin if are already long TSLA in the same account.

You get paid for both putting on and closing out this trade, if the deal works out.

I started the discussion thread on it couple of days ago here.

Go private options strategies
 
I'm sorry for raising some fear, but I have to ask.

The last corner legally devised (outside of Porsche's) is Piggy Wiggly. Shorters wanted to drive down Piggy Wiggly's stock. The owner took it upon himself and took out a large loan and devised a clever way to create a corner on the shares to screw the short sellers. Everything went according to plan, except the exchange decided to save the short sellers of a short squeeze by temporarily suspending the rule that shorts only have 2 days to buy back their shares, and allowed them 5 days to give them more time to find buyers.

We all know Wall Street does not play fair, and will protect their own even if it means bending or outright breaking laws. If a VW like short squeeze happens, shorts can potentially lose 50+ billion, and will bankrupt many firms on the street. Do you think there's a chance that Wall Street will find an illegal way to save the shorts from a short squeeze?

We’ll sue then! :D
 
ok agreed. i think we’re both on the same page here, just i was coming from a different path.

i think we both are saying;
if the portion of eligible longs electing private equity exceeds the net of longs forced into cash option vs shorts - the shorts can’t deliver private eq shares

and therein lies the possibility of surge pricing.

to me, i think the offer structure will determine the high end of the price action.

the “credit risk” scenario is more likely to occur if you have a proxy vote or record date type stipulation, which will be the catalyst for shareholders asking their brokers to initiate recalls. in cases where shorts refused to cover they would just be bought in by the broker (like you explained above in “going to open market to buy shares”) and any short worth their salt does NOT want to suffer a buy in.

however, if they do a dell-like deal,
i think this is where shorts are getting the idea that they are capped at 420 (and @Reciprocity had a well described post about this as well)
and @Fact Checking had a post where if i recall, dell never reached the corp action strike price before trading ended.

incidentally i already had the dell occ memo copied bc i was replying to a leaps question. the dell memo describes the dell corp action event terms - less the privatization part
https://www.theocc.com/webapps/infomemos?number=33480&date=201310&lastModifiedDate=09/13/2014+09:49:55
Ok, the Dell example sounds like one were the cash out price was too hig, unless it was a cash only deal. Did it include the option of private shares, or was it pure cash out?
 
Ok, the Dell example sounds like one were the cash out price was too hig, unless it was a cash only deal. Did it include the option of private shares, or was it pure cash out?


well they bought back the shares, delisted, and then went private
Dell Completes Go-Private Transaction

but i’m not sure any common stock holders were able to gain access to dell private shares!!
so maybe not the best comparison. i really wonder how they are going to do this, they basically have to segregate eligible holders who will be taking the private share option. once those are accounted for, the rest should be straightforward
 
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yes that’s what i was thinking, i haven’t seen fidelity change since 6/30 and i don’t think we’ll see the next one until 9/30

So, just to be extra clear:

No one here has any clue what the big shareholders have been doing [edit: in the past few days] as far as buying & selling, right?
 
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So, just to be extra clear:

No one here has any clue what the big shareholders have been doing as far as buying & selling, right?

well funds report quarterly and insiders must be reported immediately. i usually check bloomberg every once in a while.
to answer for myself, no.

i didn’t even see the saudi thing filed yet (maybe they don’t have to though)
 
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