ok agreed. i think we’re both on the same page here, just i was coming from a different path.
i think we both are saying;
if the portion of eligible longs electing private equity exceeds the net of longs forced into cash option vs shorts - the shorts can’t deliver private eq shares
and therein lies the possibility of surge pricing.
to me, i think the offer structure will determine the high end of the price action.
the “credit risk” scenario is more likely to occur if you have a proxy vote or record date type stipulation, which will be the catalyst for shareholders asking their brokers to initiate recalls. in cases where shorts refused to cover they would just be bought in by the broker (like you explained above in “going to open market to buy shares”) and any short worth their salt does NOT want to suffer a buy in.
however, if they do a dell-like deal,
i think this is where shorts are getting the idea that they are capped at 420 (and
@Reciprocity had a well described post about this as well)
and
@Fact Checking had a post where if i recall, dell never reached the corp action strike price before trading ended.
incidentally i already had the dell occ memo copied bc i was replying to a leaps question. the dell memo describes the dell corp action event terms - less the privatization part
https://www.theocc.com/webapps/infomemos?number=33480&date=201310&lastModifiedDate=09/13/2014+09:49:55