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With TMC stating they delivered 2400 MX in Q1, and had ramp of 750 cars/week output from Fremont, that's 3000 cars a month as long as suppliers don't constrain production. That's great news for all of configured/confirmed orders to move along. I'm just not sure when they will turn on the 5-seat production variants. Looking at modelxtracker.com, it only shows 144 deliveries in Q1, meaning each listing on this unofficial site represents about 16 customers. I know now that original reservation sequence numbers are meaningless, with mine being in the mid-16,000 range. Making wide margin or error cancellations of 15-25%, that would put me somewhere in the 12-13,000 range of real orders. With 2400 plus December's pittance deliveries, that leaves 10,000 cars ahead of me. Thus, at 3,000 cars output per month, that seems to point to 3+ months to get my delivery, which is smack dab in "mid-2016" as claimed at order for 5-seater. Anyone else feel that their delivery is anticipated to be on time, or Tesla-Time (late)?
Also, is there any rhyme or reason to VIN assignments? I have not seen any VIN's since 3/11/16 but for a few random assignments later in March. I cant figure out when TMC blasts out VIN assignments. Seems completely random...
Given all that, Tesla would be in a position to start delivering reserved 5-seat 90's and the 70's in July. The big question is if they will prioritize new premium 90 orders ahead of the "reserved" 5-seats and 70's after they've opened up the design studio.
A variable you forgot to factor in is the "5-seat design" being ready for production. The bottleneck could be the design engineers.
still that goading you to confirm will get you (or anyone) an X in April/May if you go for the currently produced P90 version or 90D version as long as you get the premium upgrade and 6-7 seats, not the 5 seater straight 90D (no premium)...Colorado Rules!!!! (Greenwood Village...)
non-premium with 22xx VIN here. My car is apparently 'built' but in QC and I've been told to expect at mid-April delivery.
Got my VIN as well: 57xx
Non-premium P90DL here with 24xx VIN ordered back on 12/29. Have been told February, then March, then "early April", now "April". Non-premium, or at least the cloth seats has almost definitely held back my order. I could see a point down the road when this would have little impact though.non-premium with 22xx VIN here. My car is apparently 'built' but in QC and I've been told to expect at mid-April delivery.