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TMC Coronavirus Ghoul Pool

What will be the overall death rate in the US attributed to the Coronavirus in 2020?


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There are a lot of smart folks here at TMC. Perhaps even smarter than average. Given all the activity in the Coronavirus thread(s), I thought it would be interesting to have the experts, the self-proclaimed experts and everyone else to hone their predictions as to the overall Coronavirus death rate for 2020 in the United States.

For purposes of this poll, we will assume a population of 330 million.
 
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Lee county Florida has 10 dead out of 200 cases, 5% mortality. Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Sanibel, Captiva, beaches, trump flags 2020 everywhere, lots of maga hats, people screaming to not close golf courses, a lot of snowbirds from the eastern 1/2 of the US and Canada, many whom have departed.
State is finally closed except for grocery and religious services, and the state has surged to #5
 
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Lee county Florida has 10 dead out of 200 cases, 5% mortality. Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Sanibel, Captiva, beaches, trump flags 2020 everywhere, lots of maga hats, people screaming to not close golf courses, a lot of snowbirds from the eastern 1/2 of the US and Canada, many whom have departed.
State is finally closed except for grocery and religious services, and the state has surged to #5

Given that perspective, what is your prediction?
 
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Percentages are based on those tested, we don't have enough testing to know real prevalence.
Heck it came out that China suppressed 43k positive tests because the people weren't that I'll, then they began shipping test kits that were wrong as much as 80% of the time to other countries, as well as defective masks.

Local numbers are useless as getting into a single nursing home is devastating but may well be controllable, all of a sudden you have 40 cases and a 20% death rate............that is good for headlines but if shared with the public like that paints a completely inaccurate picture.

To the people painting this as red vs. blue don't be such a degenerate, NYC is hit hard, what is your take on that.........

This hits the elderly and those with preexisting conditions hard, FL is awash in people who fit that description.

The real issue is the Chinese Communist Party lying to the world about this and the WHO supporting those lies as Taiwan in particular blew the whistle.
That caused the world to be caught off guard.
 
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Given that perspective, what is your prediction?
@SDRick
I’m in the 0.1 to 0.2 group, 300,000 - 660,000.

I would prefer to be incorrect

I know far too many people who initially believed SARS-CoV-2 was a hoax or attempt to keep trump from winning the election, various other reasons, many with compromised lungs, asthma, pneumonia’s, Cystic fibrosis, pulmonary fibrosis, etc, whom engage in “cognitive dissonance” and want this great economy restarted ASAP, continue golfing, going to churchs, beaches, bars, conventions, cruise ships, eh.
 
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I question whether the people voting truly know the death count they're picking due the fact that it's in percentages.

I went with .04% because I believe we'll keep it somewhere around 100,000-200,000 (.03% to .06%) assuming the US population is roughly 330 million.

This is with the assumption that the bulk of the deaths are on the east coast because the west coast locked down sooner. It's also with the assumption that we'll learn really quickly what treatments work.

But, where I could get bitten is the 2nd wave. We might do the whole celebrate too early thing only to end up in one giant mess.

I could also get bitten simply by how deaths are accounted for. Even without COVID19 roughly 7000 people die in the US each day. Typically these are due to chronic conditions, but lots of them could get attributed to COVID even if all COVID did was push them over the ledge they were already standing on.

Like lets say I was an 80 year old with some major pre-existing conditions, and had a few hundred thousands in savings. Then I got sick during all this COVID crap. Would I go to the doctor? Probably not. Going to the hospital is a great way to lose that $300,000 in an instant. This happened to my dad where he walked in with a couple houses and moderate savings, and walked out dead with zero houses and no savings (years before COVID).

Plus I would think "If I go then I might really get this COVID thing" or "the hospitals have massive shortages, and I don't want to contribute to it since I'm old" So I'd just stay at home and possibly die, and I'd be fine with that. Then someone goes to find the body, and they simply assume its covid related since it would take too much effort to figure it out, and things are too backed up for an autopsy.

On the flips side we have millions of Americans that are likely skipping appointments for cancer screening due to fear being around any doctors office. So lots of them could die simply because they didn't find out about cancer until it was too late.

And, what about gun violence. Lots of Americans are secretly thinking about killing their spouse right now. Do we count those?
 
I question whether the people voting truly know the death count they're picking due the fact that it's in percentages...

I went with .04% because I believe we'll keep it somewhere around 100,000-200,000 (.03% to .06%) assuming the US population is roughly 330 million....

But, where I could get bitten is the 2nd wave. We might do the whole celebrate too early thing only to end up in one giant mess....

And, what about gun violence. Lots of Americans are secretly thinking about killing their spouse right now. Do we count those?


I thought using percentages would require a little thought and calculation before voting. If you can't do the simple math, it would be difficult to grasp the complexities and variables that go into statistical projections.

As far as a second wave, we will be better prepared once all the manufacturing and protections are ramped up. We will probably overshoot the supply of masks, gowns, ventilators and probably toilet paper as well. We will also have a much clearer picture of the overall death rate providing guidance as to how much we need to dial up the restrictions.

As to thinking about killing the spouse, I took that as somewhat tongue-in-cheek but I'm sure there will be statistics on that as well. Perhaps that will be offset by less fatal carjackings?
 
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I question whether the people voting truly know the death count they're picking due the fact that it's in percentages....

OMG! I mean, chilling, dude! (Or Ms. Dude.) I am not saying you are wrong. (Seems pretty dead on, no pun intended.) But my god! Gave me chills. You should be writing a good factually-based thriller. NYT best-seller list for sure.
 
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Italy and Spain appear to have passed their peak for new daily deaths. Populations will peak when they have reached about half of their ultimate deaths (assuming no new major outbreaks). Thus, I am able to project that Italy will ultimately have about 20,050 deaths, 331 DPM, and Spain could see 20,700 ultimate deaths, 443 DPM.

The US has likely not yet hit its peak for daily deaths. So it is too early to use this method to estimate ultimate deaths nationally. NY is currently at 320 DPM and may be near the daily peak. So ultimate deaths in NY may reach about 650 DPM. I do expect NY to be the high water mark among the 50 states. So 600 DPM is my upper limit for nation. The US could fare as bad as Spain or Italy, so this frames my expectations.

At this point in time, I expect about 400 DPM ultimately with 300 to 600 DPM as a reasonable range. The US is currently at 43 DPM, so another 10-fold increase in total deaths is plausible.
 
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There was a death near me and I know some of his extended family and a friend.
Guy was 75yo and towards the end but still being treated for his second bout with cancer.
His prognosis with the cancer was good so I am not saying it was not a coronavirus death, but at the same time I think we need to admit his immune system was nuked, literally on radiation pills.

The numbers I want to see when it is all over is how much did the death rate really rise vs. what would have been expected.
That will tell us more than the deaths being attributed to this.
 
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I wonder as the statistics are compiled we will ever know how many people died because of the coronavirus versus how many people died with the coronavirus?

I don't think we'll ever really know.

They tend to lump up everyone in the "died, but had a pre-existing condition" into one column regardless if the pre-existing conditions were pretty ordinary things for Americans like diabetes. Or maybe I'm interpreting it wrong.

There are also people who are impossible to categorize.

Like my mom is closing in on 80 years old with a whole host of conditions. Everything from multi-time cancer survivor to MS suffer. Anytime I take her out to dinner its one medicine after another. One of my friends was "that's a whole lot of vitamins", and she said that because she couldn't fathom anyone being on that many medications.

A few years ago my mom was basically on her death bed. It was so bad I flew out my sister and her family out to see mom one last time. But, she didn't die. That time was the result of a bad reaction to medication designed to kill stuff growing in her lungs. So they opted to simply leave it alone. She also needs some surgeries, but they're too dangerous to do on her.

I'd classify her in that in-between area between when you're alive and you're dead. You can't do a whole lot, but modern science with multiple doctor visits a month keeps you going. All my mom does with her life is watch the news, and eat chocolate. Occasionally when my brother is nice he'll bring over his kids to see her, and that's basically what she lives for.

I don't think society really knows what to do with people like this. We know that they're costing us billions in health care cost without a lot of return (in years left). But, we can't really do much about it because it's in our nature to keep people going. We still have a large percentage of people who believe in the whole after life fantasy so the whole god things plays heavily with them.

We don't like the whole assisted suicide thing. We don't like it when people play god, and choose to live on their own accord.

Where I'm some weirdo on the side that lives on his own accord, and will leave when I damn well please. To me you're either alive and functional or dead. There is no in-between for me. Well except for momentary times where I'm healing from whatever my latest oops moment was. My death is either going to be seriously tragic accident like falling off a longboard doing 50mph or suicide with multiple redundancies (many decades from now).

There are very few of me in this world, and a great many of my mom. People just too stubborn to die, and the coronavirus is wrecks havoc with them. So I dunno how we should classify their death. It's hard to use the "did the doctor give them 6 months to live" classification because my moms doctor told her that 20 years ago.

So I'm going to classify EVERY coronavirus death as a coronavirus death regardless of preexisting conditions. But, I know the numbers are undercounted. To work around this I'm going to use total deaths, and then correct that by adding back in deaths that would have happened had the shutdown not happened. We generally have good numbers for fatal accidents, etc. So we should be able to compile a pretty close estimate of Coranavirus related deaths.
 
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