The number of used Tesla 3/Y available is staggering

[Richbot]

Adjusting the Valves. Maybe on a high performance engine from the late 60s to early 70s with a solid lifter cam. Or an old GM car. All of my Small Block Mopars have had non adjustable valves.

I bought a model X because I was tired of replacing points and adjusting the carbs on my 2014 Toyota lol

I will admit oil changes are a drag, but assuming you don't hate yourself and buy a somewhat-reliable car to begin with, gas car ownership is pretty damn low-maintenance compared to the last time most octagenarian Tesla owners worked on a car themselves

 

[sleepydoc]

I bought a model X because I was tired of replacing points and adjusting the carbs on my 2014 Toyota lol

I will admit oil changes are a drag, but assuming you don't hate yourself and buy a somewhat-reliable car to begin with, gas car ownership is pretty damn low-maintenance compared to the last time most octagenarian Tesla owners worked on a car themselves

“Really, how much could it be to maintain a Jaguar?”

 

[npa201]

Well, I've owned four Teslas, and my experience was that I hardly ever needed service. Therre was once when my 12-volt battery was dying, but the Tesla Ranger came out and replaced it -- for free. My nearest service center is 110 miles away, which is fine because these cars DO NOT NEED SERVICE. I mean, I can replace my own windshield wiper fluid.... There's not much else needed. No oil or filter changes, no valve adjustments, no nothing. What service do you think you'll need? I've put over 100,000 miles on two of my four Teslas, and never ever did they need service.

Just an update. So went to Honda dealership and they did appraisal and were upfront that they know these model y’s sit and so would only offer what they think they can make a profit on at auction. But they also didn’t want to hose me so said they would offer $58k. Hopefully they don’t screw me on the paperwork or something but it looks like thus far they are on the up and up. They will likely make more money than auction but are not just completely bending me over like the other offers out there. So I gave them the business on the spot. Given the circumstances, it was my best option other than just keeping the Model Y.

Picked up the BMW IX this afternoon. Haven’t driven it too much but immediately everyone in the family liked the vehicle better than the MYP (and the kids loved the MYP). Quality of materials are just so much more in line with what I’m used to when paying up for a vehicle. Build quality also seems so much better. IDrive 8 is going to take some getting used even though we have a car with idrive 7 but so happy to have CarPlay back in a car. In terms of the drive, the suspension is just so much more relaxing. Air suspension works wonders. The cabin is so much more isolated and quiet and doesn’t have that weird acoustic echo chamber issue that I’ve had in the MYP. Haven’t pushed it hard to figure out the handling but it just feels so much more serene and confidence inspiring. Initial impressions are this car is what luxury EV’s should be. However, I fully optioned this out with the nicer materials and get that this car can be out of reach price wise for most of the population. But for me, it is worth the extra cash.

Overall enjoyed my MYP ownership but happy to be out of it. If they keep the price point where it is, I do hope they include more options. A heads up display and better suspension would be huge. Or maybe the X if back to near $100k would be great. But onto other things. Good luck to you all and the community.

…Also got an email from Rivian today saying my R1S will be ready in Oct-Dec 2023…..hmmmm…what to do….

Well, I've owned four Teslas, and my experience was that I hardly ever needed service. Therre was once when my 12-volt battery was dying, but the Tesla Ranger came out and replaced it -- for free. My nearest service center is 110 miles away, which is fine because these cars DO NOT NEED SERVICE. I mean, I can replace my own windshield wiper fluid.... There's not much else needed. No oil or filter changes, no valve adjustments, no nothing. What service do you think you'll need? I've put over 100,000 miles on two of my four Teslas, and never ever did they need service.

This was my own personal experience but in my seven months of ownership I had four service experiences and only one was mobile.

First was fixing some headlight alignment issues. No biggie but had to book a month out upon delivery of vehicle.

Next two were related to front passenger seat sensor issue that wouldn’t deploy air bag in an event of a collision. Both times required booking a month out and so as a result we did not use Tesla as the family vehicle for two of the seven months of ownership and it was just a commuter car. First time they replaced a sensor. Second time they just replaced the entire seat.

Last issue was carbon fiber spoiler basically fell off. That was handled by mobile service.

 

[Daekwan]

Or maybe Ford will get smart and make an Expedition EV on the Lightning platform ASAP, they'd have an order from me the day of the announcement

No production issues/constraints considered.. this would sell like CRAZY.

As someone who drove a 1999 Navigator for over 15 years.. the only thing I didn't like about it was the MPG. I would be first in line for a EV SUV of that size & form factor! When I sold the Navigator a few years ago.. I was spending $700 a month on gas alone. The monthly car payment on my Model Y is still $50 cheaper than that!

 

[AndrewZ]

Is there actually precedent for depreciation on something like a BMW IX? People have seen this depreciation hit?

I always thought these high Euro brands were hit so hard by depreciation because of the maintenance cost risk when buying used, but that shouldn't be as much a problem with their EVs should it?

 

[npa201]

Lease residuals are probably your best bet and it’s about 53% on IX if I recall correctly or slightly worse than x5. I recall i3 didn’t hold value well.

FYI carmax came back with an offer on Tesla MYP which was $44k vs Carvana at $49k and Honda dealership at $58k.

 

[240vPlug]

Lease residuals are probably your best bet and it’s about 53% on IX if I recall correctly or slightly worse than x5. I recall i3 didn’t hold value well.

FYI carmax came back with an offer on Tesla MYP which was $44k vs Carvana at $49k and Honda dealership at $58k.

What is the mileage and options on your MYP? Is it a 22? Carmax is probably a good guage on the direction we are heading. They have been around for a while and also wholesale vehicles.

 

[Richbot]

Is there actually precedent for depreciation on something like a BMW IX? People have seen this depreciation hit?

I always thought these high Euro brands were hit so hard by depreciation because of the maintenance cost risk when buying used, but that shouldn't be as much a problem with their EVs should it?

There are dozens of very low-miles 2022's asking below MSRP already and that's retail ask on a used car website. They're going to depreciate. Autonation, which typically prices its cars pretty aggressively at a no-haggle or near no-haggle used price, has one at $82k in Vegas right now with very few miles on it

Autotrader - page unavailable

 

[AndrewZ]

There are dozens of very low-miles 2022's asking below MSRP already and that's retail ask on a used car website. They're going to depreciate. Autonation, which typically prices its cars pretty aggressively at a no-haggle or near no-haggle used price, has one at $82k in Vegas right now with very few miles on it

Autotrader - page unavailable

Am I making sense conceptually here though?

You pay way less for a 5-year old Audi versus new mostly because who knows what gremlins are ready to pop out and create a big maintenance bill with all those years knocked off the warranty, but that shouldn't be as much of a concern with EVs. I'm not entirely sure why a BMW EV would depreciate so much more quickly than a Tesla unless it's intangible stuff.

 

[Richbot]

The grille gets bigger every year

 

[Daekwan]

What is the mileage and options on your MYP? Is it a 22? Carmax is probably a good guage on the direction we are heading. They have been around for a while and also wholesale vehicles.

That seems extreme if true. 2022 MYP is currently a $70K vehicle.. and to be worth only $44K after 8,000 miles driving in the same year is depressing. Granted I would love to still trade my 2021 MYSR for something like a 2022 MYP.. but makes me scared to run the value of my vehicle with CarMax. Im guessing it's only worth about $30-35K.. if $44K is the offer for the MYP that's a entire year newer.

 

[AndrewZ]

I would caution against using past depreciation history to forecast as well when production numbers are now massively higher and will continue marching upward. The lack of robust supply in earlier years could have helped support retained values, and that might not be the case going forward.

 

[thesmokingman]

Am I making sense conceptually here though?

You pay way less for a 5-year old Audi versus new mostly because who knows what gremlins are ready to pop out and create a big maintenance bill with all those years knocked off the warranty, but that shouldn't be as much of a concern with EVs. I'm not entirely sure why a BMW EV would depreciate so much more quickly than a Tesla unless it's intangible stuff.

ooh shame, bad luck ford...

View attachment 868323

Yea... I dunno, but it sure looks like VW Group is winning here by representation.

 

[patmurphey]

Carvana may be offering ridiculously low wholesale prices, but their selling prices for 2021 MYLRs range from mid 60s to high 60s depending on mileage.

 

[Richbot]

Their asking prices, for cars they won't sell unless it's to somebody desperate for a car RIGHT NOW

 

[AndrewZ]

Their asking prices, for cars they won't sell unless it's to somebody desperate for a car RIGHT NOW

Exactly, and companies like Carvana are listing for so much because they themselves massively overpaid. They won't cut prices on those vehicles until absolutely necessary, we're just seeing the leading indicators right now.

 

[Richbot]

Indeed. The bloodletting has commenced, next it's leeches and maggots and a little arsenic for good measure

 

[SpicyPaneer]

Exactly, and companies like Carvana are listing for so much because they themselves massively overpaid. They won't cut prices on those vehicles until absolutely necessary, we're just seeing the leading indicators right now.

Time for the overpayment clowns to go under.

 

[Hiline]

There’s a massive imbalance between supply and demand of Tesla cars right now. As has been the case the last 10 years, prices of Tesla cars do not follow historical depreciation rules but instead are determined by supply and demand. Up to 3 months ago, Tesla did not produce vehicles fast enough to meet rising demand. Today, Tesla manufacturing is outstripping demand. The days of slow depreciation on Tesla cars are over. The days of rapid depreciation due to oversupply of new AND used vehicles may have just begun. If you’re not in a rush for a Tesla, hang on to your money for a few months and you’ll be able to get a massively discounted, low-mileage 2021-2022 vehicle once the dealerships start writing off their used Tesla inventory at a loss. The loss is gonna be huge.

 

[arbitrage000]

There’s a massive imbalance between supply and demand of Tesla cars right now. As has been the case the last 10 years, prices of Tesla cars do not follow historical depreciation rules but instead are determined by supply and demand. Up to 3 months ago, Tesla did not produce vehicles fast enough to meet rising demand. Today, Tesla manufacturing is outstripping demand. The days of slow depreciation on Tesla cars are over. The days of rapid depreciation due to oversupply of new AND used vehicles may have just begun. If you’re not in a rush for a Tesla, hang on to your money for a few months and you’ll be able to get a massively discounted, low-mileage 2021-2022 vehicle once the dealerships start writing off their used Tesla inventory at a loss. The loss is gonna be huge.

This is it for sure. All the signs are pointing this way now. Like the flip of a switch we went from a huge excess demand to a significant excess supply.
In the 8 months I've been following Tesla more closely after placing an order, I'd never seen a car show up in inventory locally. Now there are 20-30 cars..brand new 2022 and 2023 in almost any config you would want sitting in new inventory just in BC alone. Checking other provinces and states it seems the same thing.