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The demise of the OEMs

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#121
RobStark said:
Many/most developing countries don't have a reliable nationwide grid.
Click to expand...

They don't all have reliable fossil fuel availibility either.

A few years back I read an article where a couple in their thirties somewhere in Africa explained why an EV was more reliable than their old fossil car. Basically the fossil car ended up undrivable more than the EV. Since when the local garage randomly got petrol it was quickly sold out. And while their electricity often had blackouts they did what we all do - plugged their car in when they got home. So it charged when there was electricity available. And they ended up having a working car more often than before.
 
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#122
MC3OZ said:
How many new Toyota vehicles where sold in India in 2022?
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156,980

Sales, Production, and Export Results for 2022 (January - December) | Sales, Production, and Export Results | Profile | Company | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website near the bottom has an Excel spreadsheet and in the Sales of each region tab, you can see how many they sold in 2022 in each region. That tab only includes the ~9.5 million Toyota + Lexus vehicles. It doesn't include Daihatsu (another 766K) and Hino (another 150K).

One can go through each of these regions/countries listed and evaluate the market prospects for a high % of BEV sales.

Another interesting tab is their sales of electrified vehicle tab which separates out HEV, MHEV (mild hybrid), PHEV, FCEV and BEV.
 
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#123
cwerdna said:
156,980

Sales, Production, and Export Results for 2022 (January - December) | Sales, Production, and Export Results | Profile | Company | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website near the bottom has an Excel spreadsheet and in the Sales of each region tab, you can see how many they sold in 2022 in each region. That tab only includes the ~9.5 million Toyota + Lexus vehicles. It doesn't include Daihatsu (another 766K) and Hino (another 150K).

One can go through each of these regions/countries listed and evaluate the market prospects for a high % of BEV sales.

Another interesting tab is their sales of electrified vehicle tab which separates out HEV, MHEV (mild hybrid), PHEV, FCEV and BEV.
Click to expand...
That is actually a bit better than I expected.

Let's watch the trends from here.

My view is that the developing world isn't a moat for ICE cars, and that local developed bottom up EV solutions can be developed by the inhabitants of a country as needed.

India is likely to start out with local 2-wheeled options, perhaps using a locally owned Sodium battery technology. (Faradion)

Yes Indians intend to be able to make their own EVs, India has a lot of solar farms including some very large Installations.

Including the largest solar farm in the world 2.25 GW.
 
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#124
petit_bateau said:
In many of the developing nations you describe there are relatively weak (or no) regulation that is enforced regarding what can be connected to the grid.

The implication of this is that hybrid grid/island inverters are beginning to enter those markets, and are becoming better with volume and design iterations. Such devices have been (sweeping generalisation alert) fairly well resisted in developed nations due to regulatory and/or certification reasons until recently. This resistance is slowly beginning to crumble but is still very strong in many developed nations.

The follow-on implication is that plug'n'play electrification of weak-grid locations via self-use solar combined with batteries is becoming a technically viable and commercially reasonable pathway. Basically everywhere that has space (i.e. rurul/suburban) and has motivation to have a standby fossil-fuel generator set due to incessant powercuts/loadsheds/brownouts is motivated to become an adopter.

That in turn creates the environment whereby BEV adoption can take place even in the absence of strong grids. Even with no grid.

Granted many of these vehicles will look like toys to US-eyes, but they will be very welcome to the adopters in those locations.

Ultimately it is not clear whether those locations will ever get strong grids built out to them. Strong grids may be reserved for hugh density urban and/or commercial/industrial locations in the future. We may be at peak strong grid.
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Is is getting easier to build solar and battery powered Microgrids with grid forming inverters. There is perhaps a case for migrating remote sections of Australian grids to that kind of set up.
 
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#125
electrek.co

First electric Lexus RZ 450e SUV arrives with a higher price than a Tesla Model Y

The first fully electric Lexus SUV in the US, the RZ 450e, is now available to pre-order. Lexus is asking...
electrek.co electrek.co

Lexus first BEV SUV.

For a mere $59,650 for the base model you get a whopping *checks notes* 220 miles of range.

If you upgrade to the Luxury trim that drops to 196, starting at $65,150 before options (though there's only a few thousands worth available).


196 miles of range, on a $65,000+ Lexus BEV.


I hope all the folks who did case studies on Nokia post iphone are ready to write their sequels.
 
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#126
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#127
petit_bateau said:
As predicted,

"Jaguar Land Rover owner demands £500mn from UK for battery factory
Tata Motors will decide between Somerset and Spain for new plant within weeks"

(I'm sure the Somerset site was offered to Tesla, but Brexshit meant it didn't even pass the laugh test. In case anyone is unaware UK auto production has fallen by over 50% since the Brexshit referendum.)
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Every factory built outside the UK wasn't built inside the UK because of Brexit?

Demanding subsidies is par for the course.

Looking at British car production the decline seems more Covid related that anything else.

1677629130131.png
 
#128
RobStark said:
Every factory built outside the UK wasn't built inside the UK because of Brexit?

Demanding subsidies is par for the course.

Looking at British car production the decline seems more Covid related that anything else.

View attachment 912404
Click to expand...

Clearly not everything is due to Brexsh1t, but I can be sure that Covid was not relevant at the time of the Brexit referendum in 2016.

And yes, of course it is normal for auto manufacturers to attempt to prise the greatest wodge of subsidy out of the host country.

But the decline in British auto manufacturing is well above what might ordinarily be expected.

Global auto production is down 15% between 2016 and 2022, which is mostly Covid related. In contrast UK auto production is down 51%.

Go figure. Brexsh1t.
 
#130
petit_bateau said:
Oh dear, BMW still on the hydrogen hopium
www.pv-magazine.com

The Hydrogen Stream: BMW unveils hydrogen car demonstration fleet

BMW has launched its iX5 Hydrogen vehicle pilot fleet, with plans to start production by the end of the decade. Everfuel and Hy24, meanwhile, have launched a joint venture to accelerate hydrogen development in Scandinavia.
www.pv-magazine.com www.pv-magazine.com
Click to expand...

Yeah. Pretty sad.
A brutal awakening and a despair deja-vu.
They have no clue, their cars look bleak, and they move too slow. Neue Klasse will bomb judging by the looks.
IMHO with Audi the first victim within the next 8 years.

They even played this Hydrogen fogbomb in 2000, aeons ago, can You imagine?
The same smoke and mirrors, they even had a refilling flagship installation with Linde back then. Old boys network with Wolfgang Reizle, ex BMW-vice talent

www-autosieger-de.translate.goog

BMW Hydrogen 7 mit Wasserstoff-Verbrennungsmotor

BMW präsentiert als weltweit erster Autohersteller ein mit Wasserstoff angetriebenes Fahrzeug, das den Serienentwicklungsprozess durchlaufen...
www-autosieger-de.translate.goog www-autosieger-de.translate.goog


if You have 6 minutes, this guy/gal pretty much nails it:
Hydrogen, the future for the past 20 years:
 

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#131
More on the JLR-Tata story.

www.theguardian.com

Jaguar Land Rover owner ‘seeks £500m UK subsidy to build battery factory’

Report says Tata Motors approached Britain’s government as group weighs up site in Somerset or Spain
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com


Looking at the numbers, which are illustrative of the wider picture for all countries.

UK balance of trade is -£108 billion / year. UK car sales in 2022 are about 1.6 million/year (down from 2.3m in 2019), and UK car manufacturing for 2022 is about 775k/yr (down from 1.3m in 2019). So netting imports and exports off, the UK was sucking in 1m cars/yr and is now sucking in 0.8m/yr. That represents a direct trade deficit of (say) 1m x £30k/car = £30 bn/year assuming same price cars for import and export (which is not the case, as currently the imports tend to average highr price than the exports). That £30bn is a substantial fraction of the UK's current account deficit of £108 bn. And that is before taking into account any supply chain and employment and secondary employment issues.

However if the UK goes full BEV very quickly and there is no homegrown production (because post-Brexshit the UK gets shunned as not being a good place to put capital at risk in building a car & battery factory) then that might fairly quickly become (say) 0.1m exports (of Range Rovers and Rolls Royces !) and 1.6 million imports (of everything else) giving a net of 1.5m x £30k/car = £45 bn. But imagine if car sales increased back to 2.3m/yr as everyone tries to go electric !

That is the sum that JLR, Nissan, and the UK Treasury are all doing when bidding for £500m in subsidies. And so is every other OECD country.

UK trade - Office for National Statistics

Total value of UK exports and imports of goods and services by current price, chained volume measures and implied deflators.
www.ons.gov.uk

www.reuters.com

UK car sales hit 30-year low in 2022, but could grow 15% this year - SMMT

British new car sales fell to their lowest level since 1992 last year as manufacturers struggled against pandemic-related parts shortages, but could grow 15% in 2023 as those supply-chain issues ease, an industry body said on Thursday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

www.reuters.com

UK 2022 car production fell 9.8%, but full EVs up 4.8%

British car production fell nearly 10% in 2022 due to an ongoing global semiconductor shortage and pandemic-related lockdowns in China, but production of fully-electric vehicles rose almost 5%, according to industry data.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
#135
Buckminster said:
Nope, not sure it is relevant cause the banking sector seems pretty robust these days. VW can keep borrowing, right? Right?
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"VW" isn't the borrower when it comes to non-recourse finance sub debt. VW Group finances are convoluted, especially with the Porsche spin-out, and I'm not going to make the effort. But I did look at GM recently and ~90% of their "scary high debt" was non-recourse. A nothing burger. I used to have to correct TSLAQ clowns who erroneously included Tesla's non-recourse finance debt in their doom-math. Don't be like them.

Banks remained eager to make car loans throughout the great financial crisis. And they're in much, much better shape today. It's a non-issue.
 
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#140
Buckminster said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1638195100521037824
Too early? - okay, okay, I'll come back in a couple of years...
Click to expand...
Tesla got out ahead of the game by curtailing production in December and slashing prices in early January on top of the LNY shutdown and the February curtailment "to retool the Model 3 line". BYD mostly charged ahead, not cutting prices until late February and even then not by much. I'm expecting 500-550k in Q1, down from 675k or so in Q4.

Tesla Shanghai still has Europe and other export markets as an outlet. BYD is making gains in small export markets like Australia, but they are a long way from gaining meaningful share in Europe. As such they are much more dependent on China, where January 1 subsidy cuts added to typical Q1 seasonal weakness.

I've read BYD reduced their internal 2023 goal from 5m to 4m, but I regard even the latter as wildly optimistic. Xi will put the brakes on them soon within China and as mentioned they simply have no presence in other major markets.

A BYD/Toyota merger would be a global market juggernaut, but political and cultural forces will never allow it.
 
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